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re: ESPN's FPI rankings continues to be hilariously terrible
Posted on 10/20/24 at 11:15 am to Geaux Piggins Geaux
Posted on 10/20/24 at 11:15 am to Geaux Piggins Geaux
That number is suggesting that LSU is over performing with current roster talent
Hard to really argue otherwise
Hard to really argue otherwise
0
Posted on 10/20/24 at 11:40 am to Pikes Peak Tiger
quote:
How do they calculate that? ND 7 with a loss to Northern Illinois Bama 3 with 2 losses including one to Vandy?
Without knowing the algorithm, I’d guess it’s highly skewed towards who you beat.
Posted on 10/20/24 at 11:46 am to Geaux Piggins Geaux
So Bama has lost twice(almost 3 times) and they’re 3rd and it’s like ESPN completely forgot ND got beat by Northern Illinois at home.
Posted on 10/20/24 at 11:47 am to moneyg
quote:
Without knowing the algorithm, I’d guess it’s highly skewed towards who you beat.
Talent composite is what creates the initial rankings. So Bama could legitimately be 6-6 and still in the top 10 because they have such a high recruiting ranking.
That's the flaw in any kind of computer ranking.
Posted on 10/20/24 at 12:50 pm to Geaux Piggins Geaux
The inbreeds have two losses and are ranked third, above both teams that beat them (one of which has a better record)?
Posted on 10/20/24 at 12:56 pm to studentsect
quote:
LSU is legitimately not the same team from a personnel perspective that it was for the first few weeks of the season but it’s hard to write a formula to account for that.
It’s really not that hard
Posted on 10/20/24 at 12:56 pm to BigPapiDoesItAgain
You beat me to it talking about 2019. I still laugh about that season ending poll and what a fkn joke it was to have OSU and Clemson 1 & 2 respectively and LSU 3 after the best season ever in college football.
Posted on 10/20/24 at 1:04 pm to Geaux Piggins Geaux
Fellas, this ranking is made for betting junkies.
It's stating the likelihood of the next week opponent and the score on a neutral site.
For example, Ohio State is favored to win by 25 points next week, so they have the highest ranking.
LSU, actually, has opened as an underdog versus the Angie's. But, would be favored at a neutral site.
It's all configuring af to me, and I've probably poorly explained this FPI, but basically it's worthless.
It's stating the likelihood of the next week opponent and the score on a neutral site.
For example, Ohio State is favored to win by 25 points next week, so they have the highest ranking.
LSU, actually, has opened as an underdog versus the Angie's. But, would be favored at a neutral site.
It's all configuring af to me, and I've probably poorly explained this FPI, but basically it's worthless.
Posted on 10/20/24 at 1:14 pm to Nutriaitch
quote:
so the teams "ranked" above us has as more to do with them having easier remaining schedules than anything else.
That’s not really true either. FPI ratings are not based on projected performance through the remaining schedule. They are based on projected performance against an average opponent on a neutral field.
Posted on 10/20/24 at 1:16 pm to Geaux Piggins Geaux
If you got Ole Miss at 5. Then give SC the respect to be 15 you gotta put us higher than 12.
Posted on 10/20/24 at 1:29 pm to Nutriaitch
quote:
you do know that FPI is a predictor going forward and not a ranking of what has happened so far, right?
so the teams "ranked" above us has as more to do with them having easier remaining schedules than anything else.
Not totally correct. It's a predictor of hypothetical matchups. It's saying that on a neutral field, LSU would lose to the top 11 teams more often than not, and win against everyone else more often than not. It's not predicting final standings. The difference in rating points also predicts the point differential in those hypothetical games.
I don't know how long preseason human bias remains in this one. I know some computer rankings eliminate the preseason data ones all teams are connected through enough degrees of opponents
Posted on 10/20/24 at 1:32 pm to Nutriaitch
well no fkn way bama is legit #3. Their D sucks, their LT is horrible as well as OL, and Milroe is a good runner but terrible passer when getting pressure. ND hasn't played shite and lost to Northern Illinois. Give me a break.
Posted on 10/20/24 at 1:37 pm to Geaux Piggins Geaux
My favorite was the final FPI for the 2019 season having national champion LSU still ranked second behind Ohio St. it’s not a ranking anyone should take seriously. 
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