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re: ESPN matchup predictor for the remainder of the season…
Posted on 9/29/22 at 10:25 am to GeauxTigers247
Posted on 9/29/22 at 10:25 am to GeauxTigers247
0
Posted on 9/29/22 at 10:26 am to GeauxTigers247
quote:
The match-up predictor is based off ESPN FPI. So, FPI shows LSU at 10-2 on a game by game basis, but has them finishing with 8 wins on the season? I’d be interested to see how they calculate that
If you add up the win probabilities, it comes out to 5.25 more wins. Which would be 8.25 on the season.
If a model predicts a team to have a 51% percent chance to win every game it plays, that does not mean it thinks it will go 12-0.
Posted on 9/29/22 at 10:40 am to The Seaward
quote:
If you add up the win probabilities, it comes out to 5.25 more wins. Which would be 8.25 on the season.
Thanks for the explanation.
Posted on 9/29/22 at 10:56 am to GeauxTigers247
quote:
68.3% vs A&M
Dammit. I wish this was 68.4%
Posted on 9/29/22 at 11:17 am to Gings5
quote:
Where are you able to see future lines?
draft kings Tennessee -3
fanduel Ole Miss +2.5
fanduel Florida -3.5
Posted on 9/29/22 at 11:19 am to lsufb1912
quote:
What was the % for lsu to win against FSU?
…74.7%
Well there’s a 74.7% chance LSU probably should have won that game.
Posted on 9/29/22 at 11:20 am to GeauxTigers247
The matchup predictor for the 2019 natty gave Clemson a 52% chance of wining so forgive me if I call bullshite on that particular metric
Posted on 9/29/22 at 11:43 am to Gings5
quote:
Where are you able to see future lines?
Those aren't set lines...just what they would likely be based upon today's numbers. If you can, go find a gambling site that shows their power ratings for the teams. That will give you a little bit of insight as to the lines.
This is a weekly article from Phil Steele discussing Vegas power ratings he gets from sportsbook handicappers
LINK
For example:
LSU's power rating is 117.54. Auburn's is 107.07. Thus, on a neutral field LSU would be favored by 10. However, Auburn is going to get the 2-3 point homefield advantage bump, which is why the game opened at LSU (-7.5) at most places this week.
Using these numbers, you'll see Tennessee is ~6 points better than LSU. LSU will get the home bump, so the line (today) would probably be Tennessee -3.5 or so. In fact, I think Fan Duel has a future line out now of Tennessee -4.5.
If LSU gets a win this weekend and looks relatively good doing it, you'll probably see Tennessee open as a 1.5 - 2.5 favorite next week.
Posted on 9/29/22 at 12:48 pm to GeauxTigers247
I'm sticking with my 7 or 8 wins, unless we beat Auburn by 20+, then I will bump it to 8 or 9.
I like we are getting 2 or 3 back in the secondary over the next couple of weeks. We need Burns back by UTn.
I like we are getting 2 or 3 back in the secondary over the next couple of weeks. We need Burns back by UTn.
Posted on 9/29/22 at 12:56 pm to GeauxTigers247
Didn’t this stupid thing predict 2019 LSU losing just about every game from October to the National Championship game?
Posted on 9/29/22 at 12:58 pm to SOL2
There is no other game on the schedule except Auburn. The rest is just rat poison.
Posted on 9/29/22 at 12:59 pm to LSU Patrick
quote:
Didn’t this stupid thing predict 2019 LSU losing just about every game from October to the National Championship game?
Probably. Posted on 9/29/22 at 1:01 pm to tritiger
quote:
quote:
68.3% vs A&M
Dammit. I wish this was 68.4%
I see what you did there. Take your upvote, good sir!
Posted on 9/29/22 at 1:38 pm to Alt26
That’s pretty cool. Thanks man
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