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re: Deep dive into baseball postseason (what is best for LSU)
Posted on 5/24/18 at 6:59 am to catholictigerfan
Posted on 5/24/18 at 6:59 am to catholictigerfan
Dallas Baptist lost last night to a bad team. That would be bad if a bid is stolen from that conference but good if it DBU leaves early as they are on the bubble.
LSU is now 40 thanks to this fall.
LSU is now 40 thanks to this fall.
1
Posted on 5/24/18 at 8:08 am to catholictigerfan
I don't think the MVC is a strong enough conference for them to get an at large team in with an RPI in the 40s. The conference is really just Missouri State and Dallas Baptist. Everyone else is garbage.
The Southland is a one bid league, so I say keep pulling for the Louisiana teams in the tournament. The more wins they pile up, the better for LSU. One of them will get eliminated today because of the way the matchups worked in the tournament. But LSU played all of them so it's good if they keep winning.
Notre Dame and Texas didn't do us any favors yesterday. Hopefully Texas can get their head out of their arse and beat Oklahoma this morning.
The Southland is a one bid league, so I say keep pulling for the Louisiana teams in the tournament. The more wins they pile up, the better for LSU. One of them will get eliminated today because of the way the matchups worked in the tournament. But LSU played all of them so it's good if they keep winning.
Notre Dame and Texas didn't do us any favors yesterday. Hopefully Texas can get their head out of their arse and beat Oklahoma this morning.
Posted on 5/24/18 at 8:27 am to oOoLsUtIgErSoOo
I just took a look at the Atlantic Sun bracket, and it appears to be set up like the old NCAA 6-team regionals in the pre-super regional era. The winner of the 1-6 game gets a first-round loser, which is why Stetson plays Kennesaw State, even though Stetson won and KSU lost. With six teams, you either have to give two teams a bye on the first day or you have three winners and that means a winner will play a loser on day 2.
Posted on 5/24/18 at 8:49 am to roger79
I wonder if a small conference that is on the cusp of having two teams consistently good enough to make the tournament each year would ever go to a variable format where there isn't necessarily a set number of teams each year.
For instance, the Missouri Valley with Missouri St, DBU, and a bunch of shithook RPI anchors. Well what if they set up the tournament to be anywhere between 4 and 8 teams each year. Top 4 teams definitely get in. The next 4 spots are filled only if the next teams in the standings have a high enough RPI, like top 100 or 125 or something.
That could help keep the RPIs of the two best teams from cratering because they had to play extra games against the tomato cans that won just enough conference games to take a trip at the end of the year.
For instance, the Missouri Valley with Missouri St, DBU, and a bunch of shithook RPI anchors. Well what if they set up the tournament to be anywhere between 4 and 8 teams each year. Top 4 teams definitely get in. The next 4 spots are filled only if the next teams in the standings have a high enough RPI, like top 100 or 125 or something.
That could help keep the RPIs of the two best teams from cratering because they had to play extra games against the tomato cans that won just enough conference games to take a trip at the end of the year.
Posted on 5/24/18 at 9:06 am to ProjectP2294
Big 12 is a tournament to watch. Basically every team we needed to lose won. Texas, OU, OSU, and Texas tech are all in elimination games today.
Big 10, keep an eye on Ohio St who plays an elimination game today. We really need Minnesota to win this tournament.
MVC, Dallas Baptist in an elimination game today. Would help if they lost and Missouri St needs to keep winning. They are in the winners bracket as it stands now.
Southland, Sam Houston might have been the only team to capture an at large. They are on the brink of elimination. If they get eliminated today or tomorrow, this turns into a 1 bid league for sure. Pull for SLU who is in the winners bracket.
Sun Belt, Troy and South Alabama are potential bubble teams, both of who won yesterday. Need Coastal to beat USA Today. Troy could potentially face ULL today.
Big 10, keep an eye on Ohio St who plays an elimination game today. We really need Minnesota to win this tournament.
MVC, Dallas Baptist in an elimination game today. Would help if they lost and Missouri St needs to keep winning. They are in the winners bracket as it stands now.
Southland, Sam Houston might have been the only team to capture an at large. They are on the brink of elimination. If they get eliminated today or tomorrow, this turns into a 1 bid league for sure. Pull for SLU who is in the winners bracket.
Sun Belt, Troy and South Alabama are potential bubble teams, both of who won yesterday. Need Coastal to beat USA Today. Troy could potentially face ULL today.
Posted on 5/24/18 at 9:20 am to bubbz
I think today is a must win game for LSU. We drop to 46 with a loss or jump to 36th place tie with a win (and pass USC's RPI with a win).
Winning today allows us to stay around 40 if we win today but lose the next one.
Winning today allows us to stay around 40 if we win today but lose the next one.
Posted on 5/24/18 at 9:38 am to meldawg399
quote:
I think today is a must win game for LSU
+1
Posted on 5/24/18 at 10:11 am to ProjectP2294
quote:
don't think the MVC is a strong enough conference for them to get an at large team in with an RPI in the 40s. The conference is really just Missouri State and Dallas Baptist. Everyone else is garbage.
The Southland is a one bid league, so I say keep pulling for the Louisiana teams in the tournament.
Agree with you 100%. Originally I had conferences like the Southland as a 1 bid league. However, I went back and switched them and about 3 others to a conference to watch out for. My base line was having a team with an RPI of 50 or better.
Sam Houston, for example, was sitting right at 50. I don't realisticly think they get in if they don't win, but staying consistent I put them as a bubble team because they were right at 50. A few other conferences were the same way.
Posted on 5/24/18 at 10:13 am to bubbz
quote:
Big 12 is a tournament to watch. Basically every team we needed to lose won. Texas, OU, OSU, and Texas tech are all in elimination games today.
Yes. I have some updating to do. I started to change my whole format last night because the way I was doing it was time consuming. It will be time consuming to get this one set up, but once it is I will get rolling. Plan to have it fully updated by the start of the LSU game.
Posted on 5/24/18 at 10:14 am to roger79
quote:
I just took a look at the Atlantic Sun bracket, and it appears to be set up like the old NCAA 6-team regionals in the pre-super regional era. The winner of the 1-6 game gets a first-round loser, which is why Stetson plays Kennesaw State, even though Stetson won and KSU lost.
It certainly had me puzzled. That's why I just said screw it and put that the two needed we needed to win won.
Posted on 5/24/18 at 10:19 am to oOoLsUtIgErSoOo
Why all the research LSU is in the regional 
Posted on 5/24/18 at 10:20 am to oOoLsUtIgErSoOo
is your third post organized like rankings or just random?
Posted on 5/24/18 at 10:27 am to meldawg399
quote:
I think today is a must win game for LSU. We drop to 46 with a loss or jump to 36th place tie with a win (and pass USC's RPI with a win).
Winning today allows us to stay around 40 if we win today but lose the next one.
You might be right. Today would also be our 15th top 50 RPI win.
But than again we have 16 SEC wins that may be good enough for the committee no matter what happens today.
This post was edited on 5/24/18 at 10:28 am
Posted on 5/24/18 at 10:40 am to catholictigerfan
Fuuuuuuuuck
We have to win today
We have to win today
Posted on 5/24/18 at 10:42 am to DBU
I don't think it's lose and we are out, but losing today hurts our chances, winning today could lock us in.
Posted on 5/24/18 at 11:01 am to catholictigerfan
looking at D1 baseball here are a couple things to pay attention too
Washington Series vs Stanford
Arizona Series vs Oregon
Sun Belt Tournament specifically troy. We need them to loose the next two. Question is does a mid 30 troy get in over a mid 40 LSU?
Dallas Baptist bad loss, may have pushed them out.
I reasonably think there are a few teams who are being considered now that are in bigger danger than us
Dallas Baptist
Kentucky
Washington
Illinois
Troy
Arizona
Michigan
LA Tech
ULL
A loss today hurts but doesn't knock us out IMO. If there are 3 to 4 bid steals than we need to start worrying.
Washington Series vs Stanford
Arizona Series vs Oregon
Sun Belt Tournament specifically troy. We need them to loose the next two. Question is does a mid 30 troy get in over a mid 40 LSU?
Dallas Baptist bad loss, may have pushed them out.
I reasonably think there are a few teams who are being considered now that are in bigger danger than us
Dallas Baptist
Kentucky
Washington
Illinois
Troy
Arizona
Michigan
LA Tech
ULL
A loss today hurts but doesn't knock us out IMO. If there are 3 to 4 bid steals than we need to start worrying.
This post was edited on 5/24/18 at 11:04 am
Posted on 5/24/18 at 11:16 am to catholictigerfan
quote:
is your third post organized like rankings or just random?
Random. It is also not updated with yesterdays games. Not sure if I'll get to that today or if I'll wait till tomorrow to have more to update.
Posted on 5/24/18 at 11:17 am to catholictigerfan
quote:
A loss today hurts but doesn't knock us out IMO. If there are 3 to 4 bid steals than we need to start worrying
Yes. We aren't certainly in, but we aren't certainly out with a loss today either.
Obviously willing would help, but a lot of it largely depends on big stealers.
Posted on 5/24/18 at 11:19 am to catholictigerfan
quote:
I reasonably think there are a few teams who are being considered now that are in bigger danger than us
Dallas Baptist
Dallas Baptist I have squarely in. They may play themselves onto the bubble, but if they can pick up a few wins I think they will be at the top of the bubble.
Posted on 5/24/18 at 11:26 am to oOoLsUtIgErSoOo
looking at Dallas Baptist and comparing it to us I don't see how they would get in over us.
LSU has a better RPI could change
DBU has more road wins
LSU has a better SOS
LSU has more top 50 wins
LSU has 1 more top 100 win
LSU is in a better conference
LSU didn't just lose to a #191 RPI team.
LSU has a better RPI could change
DBU has more road wins
LSU has a better SOS
LSU has more top 50 wins
LSU has 1 more top 100 win
LSU is in a better conference
LSU didn't just lose to a #191 RPI team.
This post was edited on 5/24/18 at 11:26 am
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