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Message
Deep dive into baseball postseason (what is best for LSU)
Posted on 5/22/18 at 9:33 am
Posted on 5/22/18 at 9:33 am
Here we will keep up with every conference tournament, as well as cover what would best help LSU get in. I will cover each conference and what we need to hope for.
First I will list the one bid leagues. No matter happens in these tournaments, I think only one team gets in.
1 bid leagues
Big West - Cal St. Fullerton already in
MEAC- NC A&T already in
Patriot- Army already in
SWAC- Texas Southern already in
American East
Atlantic 10
Big South
Horizon
IVY
MAAC
Mid-American
Mountain West
Northeast
Southern
Summit
West Coast
WAC
Conference Tournaments with meaning for LSU
American-
Helps LSU if one of these win: ECU, UConn
Helps LSU if these teams exit early: UCF, USF, Houston
Tourney Updates:
- UCF: 2 & Q...Elimination of a bubble team.
- ECU and Houston play in semi-final winner take all game today.
- UConn and USF play in semi-final winner take all game today.
- USF was a very strong bubble team coming in (may have been a lock). Houston was more of a bubble team, but may have played their way in. Either way there is probably no bids being stolen from this conference. If LSU wouldn't have won last night, it would be a bit more cause for concern.
ACC
Helps LSU if one of these win: UNC, Clemson, NC State, Duke, Louisville, FSU
Helps LSU if these teams exit early: Miami, Virginia
Tourney Update
- Pitt and Clemson advance to semi-final tournament.
- Duke vs. Louisville play today. Winner advanced to sem-final.
- FSU vs. NC State today. If FSU wins they advance to semi final. If NC State wins they will be tied 1-1 with FSU and Virginia. According to what we can find, NC State would advance if they all tie.
- Potential bid stealers will be in play here. Pitt is one for sure.
Atlantic Sun
Helps LSU if one of these win: Stetson, Jacksonville
Helps LSU if these teams exit early: one of those two need to win
Tourney Updates:
- Stetson and Jacksonville play today to advance to the championship. Hopefully both play their way into the championship game.
Big East
St. Johns needs to win this tournament
Tournament Update:
- St. Johns won first round game. Plays Butler today to advance to the championship game.
Big 12
. Helps LSU if one of these win: Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma St, Oklahoma
Helps LSU if these teams exit early: Baylor, TCU
Tourney Updates
- Texas: 0-2. Eliminated
- Texas Tech: 1-1. Elimination game vs WVU Friday.
- Oklahoma St.: 0-2. Eliminated
- Oklahoma: 2-1. Elimination game vs. Kansas on Friday
- Baylor: 2-0. Advanced to semi Final. Plays winner of OU/Kansas
- TCU: 2-0. Advanced to semi final. Plays winner of Texas Tech/WVU
- The Big 12 tournament is not playing out well. Baylor and TCU, both are sitting pretty. WVU is still hanging around as well. So in Kansas. Texas Tech and OU are who we want to win, but they have a long road ahead.
Big 10
. Helps LSU if one of these win: Minnesota, Indiana
Helps LSU if these teams exit early: Purdue, Illinois, Ohio St., Michigan
Tourney Updates:
- Minnesota: 2-0. Advanced to semi-finals. Plays Illinois/Indiana winner
- Indiana: 1-1. Elimination game vs Illinois
- Purdue: 2-0. Advanced to semi-final. Plays Mich/OSU winner.
- Illinois: 1-1. Plays elimination game vs. Indiana
- Ohio St: 1-1. Plays elimination game vs. Michigan
- Michigan: 1-1. Plays elimination game vs. OSU.
- It's good that Minnesota is winning, but a lot of bubble teams are taking care of business here. Purdue was a bubble team, and may be playing their way in. Not exactly a bid steal, but not good news. Every bubble team is still alive here.
Colonial
Northeastern needs to win this tournament
Tournament Update:
- Northeastern loses first game. Now facing elimination.
CUSA
Helps LSU if one of these win: Southern Miss
Helps LSU if these teams exit early: Florida Atlantic, LA Tech
Tourney Updates -
- FAU: 1-0. Plays Rice today
- Southern Miss: 2-0. Plays winner of UTSA/UAB
- LA Tech: 1-1. Plays loser of FAU/Rice
- Southern Miss hasn't lost, but bubble teams are sticking around in this tournament. LA Tech and FAU both still alive.
Missouri Valley
. Helps LSU if one of these win: Missouri St, Dallas Baptist
Helps LSU if these teams exit early: one of those two need to win
Tourney Update
- Missouri St: 2-0. Advances to semi final
- Dallas Baptist: 1-1. Elimination game vs Valpo
Pac 12
No conference tournament
Locks: Stanford, Oregon St, UCLA
Bubble: Washington (likely in) , Cal (likely out), Arizona (likely out)
- Oregon St 3 games series vs UCLA (OSU leads series 1-0)
- Stanford 3 game series vs Washington (Washington leads series 1-0)
- Cal 3 game series vs Arizona St (ASU leads series 1-0)
- Arizona 3 game series vs Oregon (Zona leads series 1-0)
SEC
Helps LSU if one of these win: LSU (obviously), Ole Miss, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, UGA, USC, Vandy
Helps LSU if these teams exit early: Kentucky, aTm, Miss St.
Tourney Update-
- Ole Miss: 1-1. plays loser of Auburn Friday
- Arkansas: 1-0. Plays UF Friday
- Auburn: 2-1. Plays Auburn Friday.
- UF. 1-0. Plays Arkansas Friday
- UGA: 0-2. Eliminated
- Vandy: 0-1. Eliminated
- S. Carolina: 1-2. Eliminated
- aTm: 3-0. Advances to semi-final
- miss St: - 0-1. Eliminated
- UK: 0-1. Eliminated
- LSU: 2-1. Elimination game vs UF/Arkansas
Sunbelt
Helps LSU if one of these win: Coastal Carolina
Helps LSU if these teams exit early: ULL, Texas St., Troy, South Alabama, Georgia Southern
Tourney Updates
- Coastal Carolina: 2-0. Advances to semi final. Plays Georgia Souther/S. Alabama winner
- ULL: 1-1. Elimination game vs. Texas St.
- Texas State: 1-1. Elimination game vs ULL
- Troy: 2-0. Advances to semi-final. Plays Tx St/ULL winner
- South Alabama: 1-1. Elimination game vs. Georgia Southern
- Georgia Southern: 1-1. Elimination game vs South Alabama
Southland
Sam Houston St needs to win this tournament.
Tourney Update
- Sam Houston- 1-1. Elimination game vs Houston Baptist
Ohio Valley
Tennessee Tech needs to win this tournament.
Tourney update
- Tennessee Tech: 1-0. Next round tomorrow
Keep updated with scores here
First I will list the one bid leagues. No matter happens in these tournaments, I think only one team gets in.
1 bid leagues
Big West - Cal St. Fullerton already in
MEAC- NC A&T already in
Patriot- Army already in
SWAC- Texas Southern already in
American East
Atlantic 10
Big South
Horizon
IVY
MAAC
Mid-American
Mountain West
Northeast
Southern
Summit
West Coast
WAC
Conference Tournaments with meaning for LSU
American-
Helps LSU if one of these win: ECU, UConn
Helps LSU if these teams exit early: UCF, USF, Houston
Tourney Updates:
- UCF: 2 & Q...Elimination of a bubble team.
- ECU and Houston play in semi-final winner take all game today.
- UConn and USF play in semi-final winner take all game today.
- USF was a very strong bubble team coming in (may have been a lock). Houston was more of a bubble team, but may have played their way in. Either way there is probably no bids being stolen from this conference. If LSU wouldn't have won last night, it would be a bit more cause for concern.
ACC
Helps LSU if one of these win: UNC, Clemson, NC State, Duke, Louisville, FSU
Helps LSU if these teams exit early: Miami, Virginia
Tourney Update
- Pitt and Clemson advance to semi-final tournament.
- Duke vs. Louisville play today. Winner advanced to sem-final.
- FSU vs. NC State today. If FSU wins they advance to semi final. If NC State wins they will be tied 1-1 with FSU and Virginia. According to what we can find, NC State would advance if they all tie.
- Potential bid stealers will be in play here. Pitt is one for sure.
Atlantic Sun
Helps LSU if one of these win: Stetson, Jacksonville
Helps LSU if these teams exit early: one of those two need to win
Tourney Updates:
- Stetson and Jacksonville play today to advance to the championship. Hopefully both play their way into the championship game.
Big East
St. Johns needs to win this tournament
Tournament Update:
- St. Johns won first round game. Plays Butler today to advance to the championship game.
Big 12
. Helps LSU if one of these win: Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma St, Oklahoma
Helps LSU if these teams exit early: Baylor, TCU
Tourney Updates
- Texas: 0-2. Eliminated
- Texas Tech: 1-1. Elimination game vs WVU Friday.
- Oklahoma St.: 0-2. Eliminated
- Oklahoma: 2-1. Elimination game vs. Kansas on Friday
- Baylor: 2-0. Advanced to semi Final. Plays winner of OU/Kansas
- TCU: 2-0. Advanced to semi final. Plays winner of Texas Tech/WVU
- The Big 12 tournament is not playing out well. Baylor and TCU, both are sitting pretty. WVU is still hanging around as well. So in Kansas. Texas Tech and OU are who we want to win, but they have a long road ahead.
Big 10
. Helps LSU if one of these win: Minnesota, Indiana
Helps LSU if these teams exit early: Purdue, Illinois, Ohio St., Michigan
Tourney Updates:
- Minnesota: 2-0. Advanced to semi-finals. Plays Illinois/Indiana winner
- Indiana: 1-1. Elimination game vs Illinois
- Purdue: 2-0. Advanced to semi-final. Plays Mich/OSU winner.
- Illinois: 1-1. Plays elimination game vs. Indiana
- Ohio St: 1-1. Plays elimination game vs. Michigan
- Michigan: 1-1. Plays elimination game vs. OSU.
- It's good that Minnesota is winning, but a lot of bubble teams are taking care of business here. Purdue was a bubble team, and may be playing their way in. Not exactly a bid steal, but not good news. Every bubble team is still alive here.
Colonial
Northeastern needs to win this tournament
Tournament Update:
- Northeastern loses first game. Now facing elimination.
CUSA
Helps LSU if one of these win: Southern Miss
Helps LSU if these teams exit early: Florida Atlantic, LA Tech
Tourney Updates -
- FAU: 1-0. Plays Rice today
- Southern Miss: 2-0. Plays winner of UTSA/UAB
- LA Tech: 1-1. Plays loser of FAU/Rice
- Southern Miss hasn't lost, but bubble teams are sticking around in this tournament. LA Tech and FAU both still alive.
Missouri Valley
. Helps LSU if one of these win: Missouri St, Dallas Baptist
Helps LSU if these teams exit early: one of those two need to win
Tourney Update
- Missouri St: 2-0. Advances to semi final
- Dallas Baptist: 1-1. Elimination game vs Valpo
Pac 12
No conference tournament
Locks: Stanford, Oregon St, UCLA
Bubble: Washington (likely in) , Cal (likely out), Arizona (likely out)
- Oregon St 3 games series vs UCLA (OSU leads series 1-0)
- Stanford 3 game series vs Washington (Washington leads series 1-0)
- Cal 3 game series vs Arizona St (ASU leads series 1-0)
- Arizona 3 game series vs Oregon (Zona leads series 1-0)
SEC
Helps LSU if one of these win: LSU (obviously), Ole Miss, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, UGA, USC, Vandy
Helps LSU if these teams exit early: Kentucky, aTm, Miss St.
Tourney Update-
- Ole Miss: 1-1. plays loser of Auburn Friday
- Arkansas: 1-0. Plays UF Friday
- Auburn: 2-1. Plays Auburn Friday.
- UF. 1-0. Plays Arkansas Friday
- UGA: 0-2. Eliminated
- Vandy: 0-1. Eliminated
- S. Carolina: 1-2. Eliminated
- aTm: 3-0. Advances to semi-final
- miss St: - 0-1. Eliminated
- UK: 0-1. Eliminated
- LSU: 2-1. Elimination game vs UF/Arkansas
Sunbelt
Helps LSU if one of these win: Coastal Carolina
Helps LSU if these teams exit early: ULL, Texas St., Troy, South Alabama, Georgia Southern
Tourney Updates
- Coastal Carolina: 2-0. Advances to semi final. Plays Georgia Souther/S. Alabama winner
- ULL: 1-1. Elimination game vs. Texas St.
- Texas State: 1-1. Elimination game vs ULL
- Troy: 2-0. Advances to semi-final. Plays Tx St/ULL winner
- South Alabama: 1-1. Elimination game vs. Georgia Southern
- Georgia Southern: 1-1. Elimination game vs South Alabama
Southland
Sam Houston St needs to win this tournament.
Tourney Update
- Sam Houston- 1-1. Elimination game vs Houston Baptist
Ohio Valley
Tennessee Tech needs to win this tournament.
Tourney update
- Tennessee Tech: 1-0. Next round tomorrow
Keep updated with scores here
This post was edited on 5/25/18 at 1:07 pm
22
Posted on 5/22/18 at 9:35 am to oOoLsUtIgErSoOo
Alright, it's time to dig even deeper into the bubble situation. Here is a list of teams who are already in, followed by a team of locks. This will give us a pretty clear number of at-large bids available for LSU to get. Obviously, that number could go down some as upsets happen in conference tournaments. I'll stay on top of it to keep us updated on LSU's chances.
Teams who have punched a bid already. Plus 1 bid leagues
1. Cal St (Big West)
2. NC A&T (MEAC)
3. Army (Patriot)
4. Texas Southern (SWAC)
5. (American East)
6. (Atlantic 10)
7. (Big South)
8. (Horizon)
9. Colombia (IVY)
10. (MAAC)
11. (Mid-American)
12. (Mountain West)
13. (Northeast)
14. (Southern)
15. (Summit)
16. (West Coast)
17. (WAC)
Tournament Locks
***Note..this is just my opinion. I feel pretty safe calling these teams locks though, with nothing changing that)***
18. Florida
19. Duke
20. Stanford
21. Coastal Carolina
22. Georgia
23. UNC
24. NC State
25. Stetson
26. Oregon St.
27. Minnesota
28. Ole Miss
29. Texas
30. Arkansas
31. FSU
32. Clemson
33. Texas Tech
34. Auburn
35. Vandy
36. UConn
37. ECU
38. South Carolina
39. Louisville
40. Southern Miss
41. Oklahoma St.
42. Jacksonville
43. Tennessee Tech
44. UCLA
(That leaves 20 spots open currently for bubble teams [don't forget this number goes down as upsets happen in conference tournaments]. I have 28 bubble teams, which means 8 teams get left out).
Teams who have punched a bid already. Plus 1 bid leagues
1. Cal St (Big West)
2. NC A&T (MEAC)
3. Army (Patriot)
4. Texas Southern (SWAC)
5. (American East)
6. (Atlantic 10)
7. (Big South)
8. (Horizon)
9. Colombia (IVY)
10. (MAAC)
11. (Mid-American)
12. (Mountain West)
13. (Northeast)
14. (Southern)
15. (Summit)
16. (West Coast)
17. (WAC)
Tournament Locks
***Note..this is just my opinion. I feel pretty safe calling these teams locks though, with nothing changing that)***
18. Florida
19. Duke
20. Stanford
21. Coastal Carolina
22. Georgia
23. UNC
24. NC State
25. Stetson
26. Oregon St.
27. Minnesota
28. Ole Miss
29. Texas
30. Arkansas
31. FSU
32. Clemson
33. Texas Tech
34. Auburn
35. Vandy
36. UConn
37. ECU
38. South Carolina
39. Louisville
40. Southern Miss
41. Oklahoma St.
42. Jacksonville
43. Tennessee Tech
44. UCLA
(That leaves 20 spots open currently for bubble teams [don't forget this number goes down as upsets happen in conference tournaments]. I have 28 bubble teams, which means 8 teams get left out).
This post was edited on 5/23/18 at 4:31 pm
Posted on 5/22/18 at 9:42 am to ProjectP2294
Bubble Team Resumes
Team Rec. Conf. RPI SOS Group 1
Wins
1. Missouri St. 37-15 18-3 30 95 3-8
2. Ohio St. 35-21 14-10 40 47 9-9
3. USF 35-19-1 14-9-1 17 11 10-12
4. Miss St. 31-25 15-15 25 9 16-18
5. Indiana 38-16 14-9 24 74 8-11
6. Troy 40-18 19-11 34 87 6-9
7. Purdue 36-18 17-6 28 78 4-7
8. Northeastern 33-18 17-6 39 80 3-9
9.Oklahoma 35-22 14-10 36 24 10-13
10. Washington 29-22 19-9 67 67 9-6
11. St. Johns 37-14 15-3 29 119 3-5
12. Illinois 31-19 15-9 48 59 6-6
13. FAU 37-15-1 19-8-1 31 91 2-4
14. LSU 35-24 15-15 40 17 15-16
15. Baylor 34-19 13-11 35 57 7-11
16. Houston 36-22 16-8 43 51 12-9
17. Sam Houston 39-19 24-6 53 94 5-8
18. UCF 35-21 13-10 42 28 10-15
19. Kentucky 34-22 13-17 26 21 16-16
20. Dallas Baptist 37-18 16-5 44 83 5-8
21. Texas A&M 39-19 13-17 14 15 14-15
22. Georgia Tech 31-26 14-16 52 13 7-15
23. Arizona 33-21 14-15 46 43 5-7
24. ULL 34-24 18-12 55 50 9-11
25. South Alabama 31-24 18-11 49 44 4-14
26. Michigan 33-19 15-8 56 111 2-10
27. LA Tech 39-19 21-9 59 132 3-3
28. Miami 28-26 16-13 61 16 7-15
Top 5 RPI Among Bubble Teams
Texas A&M - 14
USF - 17
Indiana - 24
Mississippi St - 25
Kentucky - 26
LSU - 40 - 13th highest among bubble teams
Top 5 SOS Among Bubble Teams
Miss St - 9
Georgia Tech - 13
Texas A&M - 15
Miami- 16
LSU - 17
Top 5 Group 1 Wins among bubble teams
Mississippi St - 16
Kentucky - 16
LSU - 15
aTm - 14
Houston - 12
Team Rec. Conf. RPI SOS Group 1
Wins
1. Missouri St. 37-15 18-3 30 95 3-8
2. Ohio St. 35-21 14-10 40 47 9-9
3. USF 35-19-1 14-9-1 17 11 10-12
4. Miss St. 31-25 15-15 25 9 16-18
5. Indiana 38-16 14-9 24 74 8-11
6. Troy 40-18 19-11 34 87 6-9
7. Purdue 36-18 17-6 28 78 4-7
8. Northeastern 33-18 17-6 39 80 3-9
9.Oklahoma 35-22 14-10 36 24 10-13
10. Washington 29-22 19-9 67 67 9-6
11. St. Johns 37-14 15-3 29 119 3-5
12. Illinois 31-19 15-9 48 59 6-6
13. FAU 37-15-1 19-8-1 31 91 2-4
14. LSU 35-24 15-15 40 17 15-16
15. Baylor 34-19 13-11 35 57 7-11
16. Houston 36-22 16-8 43 51 12-9
17. Sam Houston 39-19 24-6 53 94 5-8
18. UCF 35-21 13-10 42 28 10-15
19. Kentucky 34-22 13-17 26 21 16-16
20. Dallas Baptist 37-18 16-5 44 83 5-8
21. Texas A&M 39-19 13-17 14 15 14-15
22. Georgia Tech 31-26 14-16 52 13 7-15
23. Arizona 33-21 14-15 46 43 5-7
24. ULL 34-24 18-12 55 50 9-11
25. South Alabama 31-24 18-11 49 44 4-14
26. Michigan 33-19 15-8 56 111 2-10
27. LA Tech 39-19 21-9 59 132 3-3
28. Miami 28-26 16-13 61 16 7-15
Top 5 RPI Among Bubble Teams
Texas A&M - 14
USF - 17
Indiana - 24
Mississippi St - 25
Kentucky - 26
LSU - 40 - 13th highest among bubble teams
Top 5 SOS Among Bubble Teams
Miss St - 9
Georgia Tech - 13
Texas A&M - 15
Miami- 16
LSU - 17
Top 5 Group 1 Wins among bubble teams
Mississippi St - 16
Kentucky - 16
LSU - 15
aTm - 14
Houston - 12
This post was edited on 5/25/18 at 10:44 am
Posted on 5/22/18 at 9:46 am to ProjectP2294
Let me know if you notice any big misses on that list. That was a lot of conferences to look at, then records and RPIs. No doubt I missed a few bubble teams probably. I will also try to keep track of teams who may play themselves onto the bubble in these tournaments.
Posted on 5/22/18 at 9:57 am to oOoLsUtIgErSoOo
Wow, that's great work.
Posted on 5/22/18 at 9:57 am to oOoLsUtIgErSoOo
I haven't dug too deep into it. But you may want to point out that the Pac 12 doesn't have a conference tournament.
Additionally, we can use all the RPI help we can muster, so we want teams we've played this year to win, except for the teams explicitly stated in the OP that we don't want to go very far in their conference tournament.
Additionally, we can use all the RPI help we can muster, so we want teams we've played this year to win, except for the teams explicitly stated in the OP that we don't want to go very far in their conference tournament.
Posted on 5/22/18 at 9:58 am to ProjectP2294
D1 Scoreboard is free now FYI
Posted on 5/22/18 at 10:02 am to bubbz
quote:
D1 Scoreboard is free now FYI
oh, thank god! Thank you for your grace, Lord Kendall Rogers.
Posted on 5/22/18 at 10:03 am to oOoLsUtIgErSoOo
Not to be negative Nancy here, but does it really matter?
Posted on 5/22/18 at 10:04 am to bubbz
quote:
D1 Scoreboard is free now FYI
I wonder how much site traffic they lost going to a pay model. I used to visit that place maybe 500x during baseball season. I didnt visit it once this year.
Monetizing a SCOREBOARD is just going way too far IMO, not a smart move
This post was edited on 5/22/18 at 10:10 am
Posted on 5/22/18 at 10:04 am to ProjectP2294
quote:
But you may want to point out that the Pac 12 doesn't have a conference tournament.
True. I overlooked that fact. Changed it.
Posted on 5/22/18 at 10:05 am to lsuhunt555
quote:
Not to be negative Nancy here, but does it really matter
Why doesn't it matter?
Posted on 5/22/18 at 10:14 am to thunderbird1100
quote:
I wonder how much site traffic they lost going to a pay model. I used to visit that place maybe 500x during baseball season. I didnt visit it once this year.
Monetizing a SCOREBOARD is just going way too far IMO, not a smart move
Supposedly they got a deal with Adidas to sponsor the scoreboard. You'll notice their huge logo right at the top.
Posted on 5/22/18 at 10:23 am to oOoLsUtIgErSoOo
Fantastic tread. Thanks.
Posted on 5/22/18 at 10:24 am to TigerCub
Scores of note right now:
UCF trails ECU 4-5 in the 4th.
Vandy and aTm in rain delay in the 2nd. Score is 0-0, but aTm has runners on 2nd and 3rd. Possible bad situation for starting pitchers in that one.
UCF trails ECU 4-5 in the 4th.
Vandy and aTm in rain delay in the 2nd. Score is 0-0, but aTm has runners on 2nd and 3rd. Possible bad situation for starting pitchers in that one.
Posted on 5/22/18 at 10:25 am to oOoLsUtIgErSoOo
quote:
what is best for LSU
beating MSU
/thread
Posted on 5/22/18 at 10:26 am to thunderbird1100
quote:
I used to visit that place maybe 500x during baseball season.
tbh so did i, but i also had an adblocker on
Posted on 5/22/18 at 10:29 am to barry
quote:
beating MSU
/thread
That's not true. If we want to talk about LSU locking themselves in for sure, then yes beating MSU is a must. LSU can still get in with a loss to MSU. This thread covers the things that need to happen to greaten LSU's chances were it to happen.
LSU could also beat MSU and not certainly be in, if a lot of craziness happens.
Posted on 5/22/18 at 10:30 am to oOoLsUtIgErSoOo
Nice thread. Thanks for the information 
Posted on 5/22/18 at 10:33 am to oOoLsUtIgErSoOo
I believe that more important than any tournament is the SEC tournament. The SEC is going to get a good number of teams in, its just which ones. MSU, LSU, UK, aTm are on the fringe. I think LSU is ahead of all, but MSU. Today, and the rest of the tournament will play a HUGE factor into who gets in. UK, aTm lose today then I think LSU is very likely in regardless, along with MSU.
I'm basing that off of history. 15-15 conference record gets ypu in above 13-17, if history tells us anything. What could change that is an early LSU exit with a deep UK/aTm run.
I'm basing that off of history. 15-15 conference record gets ypu in above 13-17, if history tells us anything. What could change that is an early LSU exit with a deep UK/aTm run.
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