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re: Chances we go undefeated over the next 6 games?

Posted on 10/14/24 at 1:52 pm to
Posted by CecilShortsHisPants
One Foty Fo uh uh Magnolia Screet
Member since Oct 2012
3374 posts
Posted on 10/14/24 at 1:52 pm to
Gauntlet?
Posted by runridley
Member since Sep 2009
135 posts
Posted on 10/14/24 at 1:54 pm to
Obviously, if we were to go undefeated through this 6 game gauntlet, we’d be ranked #2 or 3. It’s not likely to happen but you never know. That’s why the games are played. As much as it pains me to say, I think that we lose at TAMU.
Posted by TexasTiger_08
Texas
Member since Dec 2021
1046 posts
Posted on 10/14/24 at 1:55 pm to
quote:

Gauntlet?


For this team? Absolutely.
Posted by winkchance
St. George, LA
Member since Jul 2016
5207 posts
Posted on 10/14/24 at 2:02 pm to
0%
Posted by DocBugbear
Arlington, Texas
Member since Mar 2008
8117 posts
Posted on 10/14/24 at 2:06 pm to
I'll make a rough approximation of our chances to win each game. Then you just have to multiply. And then everyone can argue about the chances of the games individually.

@ Arky (70%)
@ aTm (60%)
Bama (60%)
@ UF (85%)
Vandy (80%)
Okie (80%)

That comes to a 13.7% chance of going undefeated, and a 33.4% chance that we only lose 1 more game. Assuming both of those put us in the playoffs, and 3 losses puts us out, that would be a 47% chance of making the playoffs.

Eh, let's just win them all anyway.
Posted by Alt26
Member since Mar 2010
32033 posts
Posted on 10/14/24 at 2:13 pm to
Short term outlook, I'm hoping LSU can at least win one of the next two games. Winning on the road is incredibly tough. A&M is playing good ball and Arkansas is probably a better than their record indicates. It will be tough for LSU to come back from a LONG, grueling, emotional game this past Saturday and ramp it up again for a rested opponent playing with some confidence.

Go 1-1, and the Alabama game likely become a de facto elimination game for the CFP. If they can get that one the schedule becomes more favorable (though not easy). Two of the final three games are at home (one against the worst offense in the SEC -- OU) and another (@ Florida) vs. a team who just lost their starting QB and could be ready to shut it down by the time they play LSU.

Who would have said before the season that the scariest game of the final three would be Vanderbilt?!
Posted by CalRipkenJr
Denham Springs
Member since Jan 2007
1787 posts
Posted on 10/14/24 at 2:14 pm to
very real chance to lose the 3 in a row, but definitely could run the table. I don't know what to expect with this team!
Posted by CecilShortsHisPants
One Foty Fo uh uh Magnolia Screet
Member since Oct 2012
3374 posts
Posted on 10/14/24 at 2:15 pm to
quote:

For this team? Absolutely.


I’m not understanding this board’s logic,
None of those remaining teams look any better than LSU. Sure, there aren’t the “easy” games. But that ain’t a gauntlet
Posted by Topwater Trout
Red Stick
Member since Oct 2010
68672 posts
Posted on 10/14/24 at 2:16 pm to
earlier in the year i was thinking a few would be easy wins...now they all look tough
Posted by Dubaitiger
Abu Dhabi, UAE
Member since Nov 2005
5161 posts
Posted on 10/14/24 at 2:16 pm to
quote:

78.7%


I like that %.... About 1.5 losses, so we lose only one and win the nail biter.

Will be tough to win out. Heck, Arky, Vandy and Florida are all playing well, especially Vandy. Need to take it one game at a time and play almost perfect every time. However, if this Defense keeps on improving, then we actually have a chance.
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