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Posted on 12/7/22 at 5:23 pm to The Baker
quote:
Is that why 2 of his throws hit safeties hands?
At least he threw it.
God knows thats what works...
Posted on 12/7/22 at 5:29 pm to Hester Carries
quote:
It’s hilarious to post some box score reading without understanding that doesn’t say what you think it says.
quote:
I mean I’m not making an argument either way, but responding to an actual film study of the game with “here are stats that have no context or nuance” is silly to me.
I agree with you. We should also introduce the context of time and score to all JD vs Nuss analysis as well. Teams play different defense and use different personnel when leading by 3 scores in the 2nd half.
Posted on 12/7/22 at 5:30 pm to geauxkoo
JD has a higher ceiling if he would throw intermediate and deep passes with anticipation.
He didn't this season, at least not very often.
Nuss has a higher ceiling if he would freeze the safety and avoid throwing interceptions.
He didn't this season, at least not very often.
JD has a higher floor because he can always turn a coverage sack into a big gain by running.... and he avoids interceptions like the plague.
This strategy is great if you can win it with Defense and Special Teams.
But this season, ST's was a big arse negative, costing LSU big time in FSU, UT, and UGA games.
Defense was a bit suspect in the Texas 4&8 game.
If both come back, it'll be interesting to see if either can improve on their deficiencies and fulfill their potential.
He didn't this season, at least not very often.
Nuss has a higher ceiling if he would freeze the safety and avoid throwing interceptions.
He didn't this season, at least not very often.
JD has a higher floor because he can always turn a coverage sack into a big gain by running.... and he avoids interceptions like the plague.
This strategy is great if you can win it with Defense and Special Teams.
But this season, ST's was a big arse negative, costing LSU big time in FSU, UT, and UGA games.
Defense was a bit suspect in the Texas 4&8 game.
If both come back, it'll be interesting to see if either can improve on their deficiencies and fulfill their potential.
Posted on 12/7/22 at 5:49 pm to emanresu
quote:
A quarterback who throws a 50% completion by throwing all check downs because he doesn't see the open receivers running their routes plays considerably worse than another quarterback who throws a 50% completion when most of his throws are 10 plus yards downfield or are being dropped.
That doesn't apply in this game. The passing concepts in this game early were quick-release plays to get the ball out quickly, partially to account for Daniels' gimpy ankle.
When Nuss came in, the game plan had to switch because they were behind.
Both QBs did extremely good IMO. Both had some mistakes. The two early miscues pretty much killed the game.
Posted on 12/7/22 at 5:51 pm to mdomingue
quote:
There is the link. I'm not so sure he is saying what the OP implies.
Thanks for the link,cuz. Have enjoyed Caskey's breakdown of plays all season.
Posted on 12/7/22 at 5:52 pm to geauxkoo
I wish Caskey would post again but some a-hole ran him off
Posted on 12/7/22 at 6:50 pm to tygerphan
quote:
Daniels 16/24 passing Come on now.
That’s including the drops, Daniels was slinging it even with the bad ankle.
And a lot of the bunch combo routes were similar to some of the stuff LSU did in 2019.
Posted on 12/7/22 at 7:06 pm to emanresu
quote:
Posting cold completion numbers is entirely divorced from context in the game. Which makes them worthless at comparing two QBs.
A quarterback who throws a 50% completion by throwing all check downs because he doesn't see the open receivers running their routes plays considerably worse than another quarterback who throws a 50% completion when most of his throws are 10 plus yards downfield or are being dropped.
Using just completion percentage is downright stupid when comparing quarterbacks.
This is really well said.
JD tends to throw the ball to receivers around the line of scrimmage with outs and slants. This let's the secondary play within 5 or 7 yards of the LOS. The secondary is not afraid of giving up the deep ball. This is part of the reason the running game struggled this season.
I do think Nuss has shown real improvement through the season.
Posted on 12/7/22 at 8:25 pm to geauxkoo
quote:
if a receiver was open, Nuss almost always found that receiver. He sees the field very well.
Okay. There must not have been many open receivers, because he often threw to the ones who were covered.
And with his great vision, why couldn’t he see the safeties camped out on top of the routes he threw?
Posted on 12/7/22 at 8:29 pm to Bert Macklin FBI
quote:
To me it looks like Nuss is really good at diagnosing stuff pre snap and running through progressions but if he is pressured, he will blindly trust his pre snap read and that leads him to trouble.
I disagree. Nuss isn’t reading anything. He’s dropping back, staring down one receiver, and humming the ball. Twice he threw the ball deep when safeties were camping out on top of that route. If he was acting on a pre-snap read I’d love to know what it was.
Posted on 12/7/22 at 8:30 pm to mytigger
Yes !!
Posted on 12/7/22 at 9:03 pm to emanresu
quote:
Posting cold completion numbers is entirely divorced from context in the game. Which makes them worthless at comparing two QBs.
Okay. Here's more context. UGA played soft zone coverage and rushed 3 or 4 almost every down in the second half. Their 2nd and 3rd team players got significant snaps. Jalen Carter played 3 series in the 2nd half.
Which defense would you have rather faced?
Posted on 12/7/22 at 9:03 pm to emanresu
ETA. Double post. Stupid phone.
This post was edited on 12/7/22 at 9:06 pm
Posted on 12/7/22 at 9:52 pm to Topwater Trout
Meaningless if you don’t score points. 10 points in the first half. Nuss scored 20
Posted on 12/7/22 at 10:15 pm to Havoc
quote:
I think JD’s longest was around 12 yards but most were between 3 and 8 yards.
quote:
I think JD’s longest was around 12 yards but most were between 3 and 8 yards.
I actually rewatched the first half to see how far JDs passes traveled from the LOS. I'll try to do the same for Nuss tomorrow. 19
1- 19 yards
1 - 16 yards
1 - 15 yards
2 - 11 yards
1 - 10 yards
3 - 9 yards
4 - 6 yards
2 - 4 yards
1 - 2 yards
1 - (-2) yards
8 incs plus 1 inc pass nullified by offsides against Georgia.
Of the ints, the passes went
1 - 35 yards
1 - 23 yards
1 - 15 yards
1 - 10 yards
1 - 9 yards
2 - 5 yards (one was an int.)
1 - 4 yards
Yeah, I know, I gotta get a hobby.
Posted on 12/7/22 at 11:10 pm to The Baker
quote:
At least he threw it.
Because turnovers are fine as long as they are long passes.
Posted on 12/7/22 at 11:19 pm to emanresu
quote:
A quarterback who throws a 50% completion by throwing all check downs because he doesn't see the open receivers running their routes plays considerably worse than another quarterback who throws a 50% completion when most of his throws are 10 plus yards downfield or are being dropped.
Negative. Not when their total yardage and attempts are similar. It’s completely irrelevant how you get down the field. The only thing that ultimately matters is CAN you get down the field. In fact, there are times where dinking and dunking down the field is better because it gives your defense more time to rest and causes the opponents defebse to work harder by being on the field longer. People tend to “prefer” those long plays because they are more exciting to see.
This of course is all game theory and technically scoring is scoring and you (almost) always want to score (except on the rare occasions near the end of games where you are up by like 1 point with like 2 minutes left and the opponent has no timeouts)
Posted on 12/7/22 at 11:21 pm to tygerphan
Let me clarify: JD struggled putting together scoring drives…..
Total Yards passing means nothing if your dinking and dunking 10 yards at a time and you only score 10 points….in a half…..
Total Yards passing means nothing if your dinking and dunking 10 yards at a time and you only score 10 points….in a half…..
Posted on 12/7/22 at 11:24 pm to Mahootney
quote:
JD has a higher ceiling if he would throw intermediate and deep passes with anticipation. He didn't this season, at least not very often. Nuss has a higher ceiling if he would freeze the safety and avoid throwing interceptions. He didn't this season, at least not very often. JD has a higher floor because he can always turn a coverage sack into a big gain by running.... and he avoids interceptions like the plague. This strategy is great if you can win it with Defense and Special Teams. But this season, ST's was a big arse negative, costing LSU big time in FSU, UT, and UGA games. Defense was a bit suspect in the Texas 4&8 game. If both come back, it'll be interesting to see if either can improve on their deficiencies and fulfill their potential.
Great breakdown.
Both could be really good if they would even slightly improve on a few key things.
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