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re: BCS: discussion and breakdown - UPDATED

Posted on 11/20/11 at 2:02 pm to
Posted by SE TX TIGER
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2006
295 posts
Posted on 11/20/11 at 2:02 pm to
quote:

It's not possble to lose and stay #1


'03 Oklahoma disagrees...BCS doesn't care WHEN you lose
Posted by JPLSU1981
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2005
27035 posts
Posted on 11/20/11 at 2:11 pm to
quote:

It's not possible to lose and stay #1.



Actually, not only is it possible, it is LIKELY that LSU stays at #1 with a close loss to Arkansas.

There are only three scenarios for LSU (listed in order of most likely to least likely):

1. Stay at #1 (because of the computers)
2. Drop to #2
3. Drop to #3


The reasoning is this: The human votes will be scattered among LSU/Bama/Arkansas....so the computers will likely be the deciding factor, and LSU has (and will have) a higher ranking in the computers. The computers do not care about "timing" of losses... they merely look at the entire schedule/results.
This post was edited on 11/20/11 at 2:13 pm
Posted by TigerintheNO
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2004
42971 posts
Posted on 11/20/11 at 2:22 pm to
so

an LSU win over Arkansas or an Alabama lost to Auburn puts us in the title game.
Posted by The Les Miles Bowl
West Monroe
Member since Dec 2010
247 posts
Posted on 11/20/11 at 2:22 pm to
quote:

derp
Posted by Elleshoe
Wade’s World
Member since Jun 2004
143780 posts
Posted on 11/20/11 at 2:30 pm to
LouisianaStateUniversityMatthew,

Once the computer polls are all out will you give us your projections?
Posted by lsumatt
Austin
Member since Feb 2005
12812 posts
Posted on 11/20/11 at 2:34 pm to
quote:

Once the computer polls are all out will you give us your projections?


For the overall BCS this week? They hold on to the computer polls until the BCS is released (Sagarin is out). All signs point to:

1. LSU
2. Bama
3. Arky
4. OSU
5. Va Tech
6. Stanford
Posted by 756
Member since Sep 2004
15266 posts
Posted on 11/20/11 at 2:40 pm to
Thanks Matt
Posted by 0jersey
Paradise
Member since Sep 2006
1878 posts
Posted on 11/20/11 at 2:51 pm to
PJ,

I have to disagree with you. IF this team finishes off like I suspect it will and become 14-0 there is no denying they are a top 5 team of the modern era.

95 Nebraska was the best in my opinion. 97 michigan was not as good as this team. Possibly Texas 05, they were great. 04 USC also not as dominant as LSU this yr. Miami 01 probably was second best.

Also, LSU 03 was fortunate to beat a very good ole miss team on the road, and did lose to Florida. They also had a very tough game against UGA early.

This yr LSU has played a more difficult OOC schedule than 03 and has dominated everyone but Bama. (argument could be made against MSU, but that game was never in doubt).

Therefore, I would say this is the best team in school history if they win out.
Posted by GRIZZ
PRAIRIEVILLE
Member since Nov 2009
5850 posts
Posted on 11/20/11 at 3:00 pm to
quote:

Are we allowing Reggie to play for USC in 2004?


TR > RB
Posted by heehaw
Member since May 2009
4584 posts
Posted on 11/20/11 at 3:03 pm to
I think the voters will do everything in their power to prevent a rematch
Posted by SLTiger29
Galliano, Louisiana
Member since Oct 2011
734 posts
Posted on 11/20/11 at 3:12 pm to
If this team finishes 14-0, they are the greatest team in the history of college football's modern era, case closed. We will have beaten AP #2,3,4, and if UGA beats GA Tech, another top ten team, and when you add whoever we play in the MNCG, another top five team, which means five top ten teams.

We will have played more ranked opponents than unranked opponents. And exactly one top ten team out of five will have been at TS.

No one, absolutely no one, can compare to that resume.

The greatest NFL team of all time is the 1972 Dolphins because they went undefeated with a SB championship and no one else in the modern era of the NFL (since the merger) has done that. CFB has undefeateds just about every year, so you can't grade it on that. But, if you grade it on body of work in terms of who they played to go undefeated, which after wins and losses is the only accurate measurement, then no team comes close.

Like the 72 Dolphins, maybe other teams from other years have scored more points, held opponents to less points, had prettier stats than this year's LSU team. But, all year, one game was in question in the fourth quarter and that was against #2 on the road. We've beaten every team except one by double digits.

If this team wins out, folks, get used to it, this is the team you'll be telling your grandkids about. This will be the greatest team of all time.
Posted by TheSexecutioner
Member since Mar 2011
5264 posts
Posted on 11/20/11 at 3:13 pm to
quote:

TR > RB


No he wasn't. You are using hinesight. It was a HUGE surprise that Reggie wasn't picked first in the NFL draft. The lottery to see who got the first pick was the most talked about since Ricky Williams and until this year.
Posted by TigerMan02
Member since Dec 2007
891 posts
Posted on 11/20/11 at 3:18 pm to
Great decision for Houston looking back on it now.
Posted by Kim Jong Ir
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2008
54170 posts
Posted on 11/20/11 at 3:26 pm to
quote:

I think the voters will do everything in their power to prevent a rematch



No doubt. Stanford and OSU, if they win out, are going to be the darlings of the voters.
Posted by SLTiger29
Galliano, Louisiana
Member since Oct 2011
734 posts
Posted on 11/20/11 at 3:35 pm to
As it should be.
Posted by GRIZZ
PRAIRIEVILLE
Member since Nov 2009
5850 posts
Posted on 11/20/11 at 3:39 pm to
quote:

It was a HUGE surprise that Reggie wasn't picked first in the NFL draft. The lottery to see who got the first pick was the most talked about since Ricky Williams and until this year.


Are you really going to base who is better on draft position? What TR has done against SEC defenses is more impressive than what RB did against the PAC 10. Imagine the numbers TR would have had with USC's line against the PAC 10. Rediculous.
Posted by SLTiger29
Galliano, Louisiana
Member since Oct 2011
734 posts
Posted on 11/20/11 at 3:43 pm to
I was waiting for someone to say this.a


Look, until someone decides to give the SEC it's own athletic association, a yard in the Pac 10 is exactly as valuable as a yard in the SEC.
Posted by islstl
Austin, TX
Member since Nov 2006
794 posts
Posted on 11/20/11 at 3:45 pm to
Until what transpired this week with all the losses, I was convinced that LSU could lose close to Arkansas and still go to the SEC CG.

Now there is no buffer between LSU and Arkansas except for Alabama.

If Arkansas wins, could the voters do what in any other scenario would be the unthinkable and leave them exactly where they are at #3? Do they go back and look at each team's body of work and leave LSU right where they are at #1, or at worse drop them only to #2?

Matt is correct that LSU will likely have the strongest of the computer polls over Bama and Arkansas. And Arkansas is indeed a clear #3 in that race.

I would also agree that LSU is pretty much guaranteed themselves the BCS CG with a win over Arkansas. Obviously they can't lose by 30 points to Georgia. But then again, that won't happen.

A close loss to Arkansas, I think somehow Arkansas falls just short at #3 in the BCS ranking and LSU would then go to the SEC CG.
This post was edited on 11/20/11 at 3:48 pm
Posted by sheek
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Sep 2007
43976 posts
Posted on 11/20/11 at 3:50 pm to
quote:

Therefore, I would say this is the best team in school history if they win out.


No question and the best team of the BCS era. Great work Matt. This thread delivers.

Posted by RockChalkTiger
A Little Bit South of Saskatoon
Member since May 2009
10856 posts
Posted on 11/20/11 at 3:59 pm to
quote:

Sagarin is out

Why all the love for the Big-12-2? A&M still in the top-10? Mizzou #12 at 6-5?
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