re: Anyone know Mason Smith’s draft position projection?

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And I think it is a no brainer for him to come back, be fully recovered from the injury and dominate and then get that first round money that is fully guaranteed.

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What if he comes back and plays just like he did this year? He would fall even further. In the 3rd he gets over $1 mill signing bonus and likely $1 mill in salary, although not fully guaranteed. LSU isn’t coming near that in NIL.

You say it’s a no brainer but I know a lot of people would take the $2 million now rather than playing another year for ~$500k and risk not getting anything

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Not Cooper

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Let's play out the hypo.

Let's "give" him the third round contract. Here's the facts on Kobie Turner's contract who was drafted in the middle of the third last year.

So Maason takes his $921K signing bonus (the only part of his contract that is guaranteed) and then plays EVERY SINGLE SNAP FOR THE NEXT FOUR YEARS knowing that it could be the end and he gets nothing.

As noted, the NFL rookie contracts are not pro rata. The salary is only $750K in year one. You have to make it two years without injury to get to average.

In contrast, here is Mazi Smith's contract. Smith was drafted at the end of the first round. First off, he puts $6.6 million in the bank when he signs. 7x what Turner got. And the remainder of his contract is fully guaranteed.

I'm not even going to use Jalen Carter's contract because a top 10 pick is a stretch. But those numbers are eye popping and Maason's measurables are more comparable to Carter than to Mazi.

At any rate, there are three broad scenarios:

1. Go now, take the $921K plus $750K your first year and hope and pray you make it unscathed for four years so you can finally earn big money.

2. Work your arse off all offseason and get yourself physically and mentally prepared to get back to being dominant. Two extreme outcomes there:

A. You do what we all think you can potentially do and you get a much more secure and lucrative contract for four years.

B. You don't improve and you fall further in the 2025 draft than you would have in the 2024 draft. Now your comp is Jacqueline Roy. Your gamble has cost you $550K on your signing bonus, about $1 million over the course of the 4 years, and of course, a year delay.

Now factor in the fact that if you think you will survive in the NFL for four years, don't you think you also believe in yourself enough to dominate the SEC next year?

The risks he is taking in coming back is not as big of a deal as anyone is making it out to be. The upside is enormous. This is not a hard decision for a guy with Maason Smith's god given abilities to make.

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Could be bullshite, but the rumor out of Football Ops is he was told third round.

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I believe that

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Agents convinced him and his family late first due to a weak draft class.

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Damn. I was thinking late 2nd round if everything worked out in his favor & a team was forced to reach for him. I'd be shocked if he went late 1st, & question the sanity of the GM that drafted him there.

So glad he decided to go. Good luck to him.

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An ACL injury (he’s already had one) and it all goes to nothing.

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See I disagree. It would cost him, but not as much as you think.

He's risking roughly $1 million now and a shitty contract for $6.5 million a year from now and another $6.5 million guaranteed.

This isn't a roll of the dice either.

yeah, Hunter had tremendous untapped potential comin out of LSU because he learned nothing playing there I forget under what defensive line coach that he played for at LSU. Minnesota knew that and knew how raw he was, but knew that they could coach him up into the beast that he is now. But I don't think Smith is the same scenario as Hunter because I just don't see the potential in him, maybe I'm wrong though.

i think we have seen enough players comeback from knee injuries so fast that expect that to happen 100% of the time.

I iust don’t think he was fully back allbyear

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Besides a few games at the end, he genuinely got his shite pushed in all year. There is no way he goes in the first 3-4 rounds. Bc he's 6'5 310? He got dominated in 80% of our games

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I’ll bet anything you want to bet he goes by the end of round four

Hell I’ll bet he goes by the end of round 3

He’s a top 100 prospect

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I forget under what defensive line coach that he played for at LSU

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That would be Brick Haley if I remember correctly.

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But I don't think Smith is the same scenario as Hunter because I just don't see the potential in him, maybe I'm wrong though.

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This issue with Smith is that he just hasn't been able to develop because of injuries and the whole situation we had with the DL coaching this year.

He probably won't get to Hunters status but he'll be a long time pro. He's just leaving tons of money on the table by not coming back to put out a season long tape of production and improving his draft stock.