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re: Analyzing The Dip in Batting Average in SEC Play

Posted on 5/10/23 at 9:30 pm to
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
40226 posts
Posted on 5/10/23 at 9:30 pm to
quote:

You don’t dip this much from one bad weekend. You are too caught up on me removing the two best players. It’s open to interpretation but to flat out dismiss that there has been a decline is ignorant


I pointed out the decline. 33 runs versus Bama(tied for our best) and 11 versus Auburn (by far our worst). It’s one weekend. It was a decline.

You try to explain last weekend by going back seversl weeks when our run production was high and act as if we are in a four week tailspin when obviously we were not.
Posted by Lester Earl
3rd Ward
Member since Nov 2003
285048 posts
Posted on 5/10/23 at 9:37 pm to
quote:

SU’s fundamentals on the pitching side in conference suggest they’ve been somewhat unlucky in terms of ERA.



Skenes affect + poor defense


Posted by Lester Earl
3rd Ward
Member since Nov 2003
285048 posts
Posted on 5/10/23 at 9:41 pm to
Yea baw, all the numbers just declined after this weekend. You are all over it.
Posted by TexasTiger33
Member since Feb 2022
13364 posts
Posted on 5/10/23 at 9:43 pm to
quote:

affect


effect?

Also, for the record, I don't use Twitter and whoever that is salute them for the profile picture
Posted by MikeTheTiger71
Member since Dec 2021
3797 posts
Posted on 5/10/23 at 9:47 pm to
quote:

Skenes affect + poor defense


That doesn’t explain the overall fundamentals of team pitching stats being better than the team ERA unless Skenes’ fundamentals were far superior to his ERA. Defense impacts unearned runs and BA. The first doesn’t affect ERA and team BA allowed is pretty good. I’m not suggesting the 6.06 ERA isn’t skewed by Skenes. I’m suggesting that the fundamentals for the rest of the staff don’t translate to an 8.45 ERA.
Posted by Lester Earl
3rd Ward
Member since Nov 2003
285048 posts
Posted on 5/10/23 at 9:59 pm to
They look about right to me, considering Skenes skews all of those numbers. I’d bet the rest balloon without him. Especially free runners. Either way; they aren’t in great shape going forward
Posted by MikeTheTiger71
Member since Dec 2021
3797 posts
Posted on 5/10/23 at 10:09 pm to
quote:

They look about right to me, considering Skenes skews all of those numbers. I’d bet the rest balloon without him. Especially free runners. Either way; they aren’t in great shape going forward


I’m not suggesting that the fundamentals for the rest of the pitching staff are good. I’m only suggesting they aren’t 8.45 ERA bad.

ETA: The rest of the staff has a conference WHIP of 1.73, but still one of the lowest HR/9 and more Ks than IP. Missouri’s staff also has a WHIP of 1.73 with almost twice as many HR/9 and an ERA almost a full run better than the rest of the staff at 7.58. Ole Miss is a little worse at 1.75 with even more than twice the HR/9 and an ERA of 7.11. A&M is also at 1.73 and about the same HR/9 as the rest of the staff with an ERA of 7.04. Georgia’s WHIP is a little better at 1.7 but their HR/9 are almost 50% worse with an ERA of 6.93. Auburn’s WHIP is much worse at 1.89 with about the same HR/9 with an ERA of 6.92. The fundamentals for the rest of the staff are better than or equal to all those teams suggesting they should have an ERA more like 6.9 or better, not 8.45. It’s still awful but not as awful.
This post was edited on 5/10/23 at 10:32 pm
Posted by Lester Earl
3rd Ward
Member since Nov 2003
285048 posts
Posted on 5/10/23 at 10:27 pm to
LSU’s whip without Paul Skenes is 1.72 and that doesn’t even factor in the 25 HBP batters.

That’s atrocious
Posted by MikeTheTiger71
Member since Dec 2021
3797 posts
Posted on 5/10/23 at 10:34 pm to
quote:

LSU’s whip without Paul Skenes is 1.72 and that doesn’t even factor in the 25 HBP batters. That’s atrocious


It is atrocious, but see my edit to my post that shows the comparison to all the atrocious staffs in the SEC (except MSU who are a complete train wreck). Those staffs still have ERAs that are 6.9-7.1 with generally worse fundamentals than the rest of the LSU staff excluding Skenes, not 8.45.
This post was edited on 5/10/23 at 10:35 pm
Posted by Lester Earl
3rd Ward
Member since Nov 2003
285048 posts
Posted on 5/10/23 at 10:41 pm to
Just not sure once you get to that level of bad that you can be unlucky. You are just bad & kinda create your own luck. But I get it
Posted by MikeTheTiger71
Member since Dec 2021
3797 posts
Posted on 5/10/23 at 10:44 pm to
quote:

Just not sure once you get to that level of bad that you can be unlucky. You are just bad & kinda create your own luck. But I get it


Unlucky might be a bad choice of words. They’ve just been worse than they should have been given the underlying fundamentals. They’ve still been awful and may continue to be awful but 1.5 fewer runs surrendered per 9 would help offset any regression from the offense.
Posted by lsufball19
Franklin, TN
Member since Sep 2008
68798 posts
Posted on 5/11/23 at 8:47 am to
quote:

Those teams had far more of them.

Those teams didn’t bunt for shite. We already went over this.

quote:

Look at the doubles and triples and average during the NCAAs

So hitting a lot of XBHs makes someone a “grinder”? So we must have a ton of those right now. Glad you cleared that up
quote:

Besides all of that all of his teams until 1996 and those after 1998 didn’t have all the “power” due to the bats. They were average hitters.

Ok

Like I said. You want Mainieri’s coaching with Jay’s roster. You also have a pretty poor memory
This post was edited on 5/11/23 at 8:52 am
Posted by Sweep Da Leg
Member since Sep 2013
1660 posts
Posted on 5/11/23 at 12:38 pm to
quote:

Speaking of Pearson, his 2022 late-season bat is exactly what this team is missing. Contact guy that hits to all fields. Just a tough arse out. I'm unsure how many more chances you can give him, though


This. What the hell happened? Is he swinging differently ie mechanics? I thought he would be a stud this year.
Posted by Lester Earl
3rd Ward
Member since Nov 2003
285048 posts
Posted on 5/13/23 at 11:32 pm to
quote:

mean remove the best two players from every lineup and let me know what their SEC average is.



quote:

If you take away every SEC teams 2 best hitters, I bet your “SEC median” numbers plummet.



quote:

What’s the SEC average if you factor out the top 2 batters on each SEC team? This stat is extremely disingenuous.


quote:

If you take the best 2 hitters out of the lineup we would be much lower.



quote:

What are the league averages without the top two hitters on each team?



quote:

fair comparison is to take out the best two hitters for every sec team and compare to LSU without crews and white.



quote:

but the fact that you're comparing LSU's lineup without their two best hitters to the rest of the league's full lineup makes zero sense



quote:

So how about you go take out the 2 best hitters from every SEC team, then re calculate the averages



quote:

you remove the top 2 hitters off any team the stats will drop. Hhmmm I wonder what happens when you take off the worst 2 hitters? This is dumb.



quote:

why don't you remove the top 2 hitters from every lineup and then run the SEC averages





Sometimes these things have a way of writing themselves:

Tommy white: 4 hits

Rest of team: 3 hits
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