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Started By
Message
re: Analyzing The Dip in Batting Average in SEC Play
Posted on 5/8/23 at 7:19 pm to RightWingTiger
Posted on 5/8/23 at 7:19 pm to RightWingTiger
quote:
Its like JJ thinks the 18 HR Jobert is gonna show up all of a sudden? I may be wrong & it just seems like it but Jobert is a “Rally Killer” & seems to always do the opposite of what you need from him. And thats just at the plate, he adds absolutely nothing as an Outfielder & is an obvious defensive liability.
What have Pearson or Kling done to suggest they are more deserving of playing time? Johnson also has good reason to think that the Jobert who hit 18 HRs will show given how streaky he has been in his time at LSU. Beyond all that, Jobert has not been the liability at the plate nor in the field you are making him out to be, at least not to the point he should be singled out compared to the other players on the team who are currently in a slump.
This post was edited on 5/8/23 at 7:20 pm
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Posted on 5/8/23 at 11:39 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
Tre Morgan needs to take more of a burden as a run producer.
I'll say it. Since hitting for the cycle, Tre has provided some consistency. Obviously lost a big step on the paths since last yrs injury perhaps...but would love to see that All American potential step up.
This post was edited on 5/8/23 at 11:41 pm
Posted on 5/9/23 at 6:18 am to Lester Earl
They do not play well consistently
Posted on 5/9/23 at 8:29 am to LSUStar
quote:
They do not play well consistently
Have a season full of 37 wins and 10 losses that suggest otherwise. You do not win every weekend series and not lose 2 games in a row until May by "not playing well consistently". Dumb comment.
Posted on 5/9/23 at 10:32 am to Lester Earl
Excellent information, that batting average apart from Crews/White really tells us more about this teams true ability.
Posted on 5/9/23 at 11:00 am to QB
quote:
that batting average apart from Crews/White really tells us more about this teams true ability.
Please tell me how taking the two best hitters out of the lineup gives you the team’s true ability?
You find out the team’s true ability if the two best hitters in the lineup aren’t in it. I don’t expect those two guys to not be in the lineup.
Posted on 5/9/23 at 12:30 pm to LSUcajun77
Posted on 5/9/23 at 12:46 pm to geauxtigers33
quote:
You find out the team’s true ability if the two best hitters in the lineup aren’t in it. I don’t expect those two guys to not be in the lineup.
Exactly
Posted on 5/9/23 at 3:04 pm to RightWingTiger
quote:
If Jay fails to get us to a super then we have to view it as a bad year and the pressure on him should start to heat up some.
That’s pretty idiotic even for the tRant
It's actually pretty on par for that particular poster.
Posted on 5/9/23 at 3:34 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
Overall, the median numbers for the SEC are .265/.374/.462
LSU without Crews/White: .243/.385/.432
So how about you go take out the 2 best hitters from every SEC team, then re calculate the averages. I think you may come up with remarkably different numbers. Its only common sense, so dont hurt yourself.!!!!!!
Posted on 5/9/23 at 3:43 pm to Big4SALTbro
quote:
If Jay fails to get us to a super then we have to view it as a bad year and the pressure on him should start to heat up some.
Have we forgotten that we lost 2 very good (weekend starting caliber) arms. Im not sure people realize how much of a blow that is to the staff!!!
Posted on 5/9/23 at 4:17 pm to lsusteve1
New poster, long time reader. I'm sure that'll immediately be pointed out by the regulars of TD...
I'm a little confused about the criticism about Dugas' batting since his injury. Take out the horrible weekend against Alabama where he apparently was still not right with the injury - last week he was:
5 for 14
2HR
3RBI
6runs
2BB
4HBP
That's a .357 batting avg and a .550 OBP.
He's one of the few, if not the only one that's on the uptick right now.
Edit: Forgot to mention the 14 pitch at bat he had Sunday on the starter to get his count up.
I'm a little confused about the criticism about Dugas' batting since his injury. Take out the horrible weekend against Alabama where he apparently was still not right with the injury - last week he was:
5 for 14
2HR
3RBI
6runs
2BB
4HBP
That's a .357 batting avg and a .550 OBP.
He's one of the few, if not the only one that's on the uptick right now.
Edit: Forgot to mention the 14 pitch at bat he had Sunday on the starter to get his count up.
This post was edited on 5/9/23 at 4:25 pm
Posted on 5/9/23 at 4:38 pm to Lester Earl
Hunt did an eerily similar breakdown today to start his show, but also broke down other teams' SEC averages.
South Carolina:
Ethan Petry hitting .388 in SEC play, but only 3 guys in their lineup hitting over .258 in league play.
Arkansas:
Jace Bohrofen and Caleb Cali hitting .353 in SEC play, but only 4 guys hitting over .225.
Florida:
6 guys hitting over .296 in SEC play.
South Carolina:
Ethan Petry hitting .388 in SEC play, but only 3 guys in their lineup hitting over .258 in league play.
Arkansas:
Jace Bohrofen and Caleb Cali hitting .353 in SEC play, but only 4 guys hitting over .225.
Florida:
6 guys hitting over .296 in SEC play.
This post was edited on 5/9/23 at 4:44 pm
Posted on 5/10/23 at 1:26 pm to 3rdPart Tiger
I just got to listen to it, and look, I am not arguing that it isn't good. But this was supposed to be a transcendent lineup. A lineup where the 2nd team was going to win the Sun Belt. A lineup that was better earlier in SEC play against the higher ranked teams.
It was an eye test thing, and I think the numbers back that up, especially more than I dig.
Batting Average After 5 SEC Series vs Current AVG
Cade Beloso .370----> .234
Jared Jones .355----> .289
Brayden Jobert .344----> .267
Thompson .296----> .253
Dugas .250-----> .197
I'm not a batting average guy but this gives you an idea of a bat-to-ball profile. These guys have dipped off noticeably. And as the pitching worsens and stays iffy, this is troublesome. Because they need to be scoring more runs to compensate, not less.
So,
Does it look early season LSU?
Hunt says no. So do I.
Is it gorgeous?
Hunt says no. And it is not. But it was. Against better SEC teams just a few weeks ago.
Is the production where it needs to be?
Hunt says yes. I say, very clearly, no. Throw out the subjectivity and the amount of runs LSU has compiled through league play. Most of the lineup has taken a noticeable turn downward.
The offense cannot just supplement; it has to carry this team. Travinski coming on is a huge help.
It was an eye test thing, and I think the numbers back that up, especially more than I dig.
Batting Average After 5 SEC Series vs Current AVG
Cade Beloso .370----> .234
Jared Jones .355----> .289
Brayden Jobert .344----> .267
Thompson .296----> .253
Dugas .250-----> .197
I'm not a batting average guy but this gives you an idea of a bat-to-ball profile. These guys have dipped off noticeably. And as the pitching worsens and stays iffy, this is troublesome. Because they need to be scoring more runs to compensate, not less.
So,
Does it look early season LSU?
Hunt says no. So do I.
Is it gorgeous?
Hunt says no. And it is not. But it was. Against better SEC teams just a few weeks ago.
Is the production where it needs to be?
Hunt says yes. I say, very clearly, no. Throw out the subjectivity and the amount of runs LSU has compiled through league play. Most of the lineup has taken a noticeable turn downward.
The offense cannot just supplement; it has to carry this team. Travinski coming on is a huge help.
Posted on 5/10/23 at 1:42 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
Cade Beloso .370----> .234
Jared Jones .355----> .289
Brayden Jobert .344----> .267
Thompson .296----> .253
Dugas .250-----> .197
Beloso at .370 wasn't sustainable, but we rode the wave. The party's over. He should be used, but not exclusively. He is way better than a .230 hitter but not a .370 hitter.
Jones at or around .300 is about right. I'll take it.
Jobert is about right. He's not an every day player.
Thompson should be in the 8 or 9 hole.
Dugas just needs to get on base. I think he works at that, to a fault. He's a far better power/average guy when he's asked to be that. He's being asked to sacrifice that for OBP. And now teams are just pound away at him. A slight adjustment to his approach should help.
None of this is surprising. I don't think it's purely regression. The law of averages say some guys will get it together and some are just what they are. If the guys we're counting on to get it together don't, it's going to be tough. But, they've had it together before, they've gotten it together before, etc.
Posted on 5/10/23 at 1:47 pm to Lester Earl
quote:If you remove the top 2 hitters off any team the stats will drop. Hhmmm I wonder what happens when you take off the worst 2 hitters? This is dumb. It’s 2 of the best hitters in the country, of course it’s going to drop significantly if you don’t factor them in the equation.
Finally, crunching some numbers, if you remove Crews and Tommy White
Posted on 5/10/23 at 1:56 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
Cade Beloso .370----> .234 Jared Jones .355----> .289 Brayden Jobert .344----> .267 Thompson .296----> .253 Dugas .250-----> .197
The issue here isn’t so much the direction of the drop, it’s the magnitude. For their averages to drop to that point, it means they’ve hit far worse than that the last three series. The averages are all probably a little lower than what should be expected going forward, which means they should start hitting much better than the last 3 series.
Posted on 5/10/23 at 1:57 pm to Lester Earl
at the beginning of the season the Tigers were leading the nation in hitting, fielding and pitching. those were the days. well they will still likely make a run at the championship.
Based on those numbers (in the SEC)
Crews is hitting a homerun 1 in every 12 at bats and getting an RBI 1 in every 3.23 at bats
White is hitting a homerun 1 in every 13.57 at bats and getting an RBI 1 in every 2.5 at bats
Jones is hitting a homerun 1 in every 15.2 at bats and getting an RBI 1 in every 4 at bats
Beloso is hitting a homerun 1 in every 16 at bats and getting an RBI 1 in every 3.76 at bats
Travinski is hitting a homerun 1 in every 6 at bats and getting an RBI 1 in every 2 at bats (only 18 at bats in the SEC)
Crews has dropped down to 2nd in D1 with a .607 ob%. His ob% in the SEC slightly lower at .589, would still be 2nd in the entire D1.
Based on those numbers (in the SEC)
Crews is hitting a homerun 1 in every 12 at bats and getting an RBI 1 in every 3.23 at bats
White is hitting a homerun 1 in every 13.57 at bats and getting an RBI 1 in every 2.5 at bats
Jones is hitting a homerun 1 in every 15.2 at bats and getting an RBI 1 in every 4 at bats
Beloso is hitting a homerun 1 in every 16 at bats and getting an RBI 1 in every 3.76 at bats
Travinski is hitting a homerun 1 in every 6 at bats and getting an RBI 1 in every 2 at bats (only 18 at bats in the SEC)
Crews has dropped down to 2nd in D1 with a .607 ob%. His ob% in the SEC slightly lower at .589, would still be 2nd in the entire D1.
This post was edited on 5/11/23 at 6:34 am
Posted on 5/10/23 at 2:02 pm to Lester Earl
First of all, I agree with your premise that we are down significantly in league play, Crews and White are far and away our best hitters. Imo that speaks more to the greatness of Crews and White than to the weakness of the rest of the lineup.
This just isn't factual.
A starting lineup of Dugas, Morgan, Crews, White, Beloso, Jones, Travenski, Jobert, and Thompson gives you 6 of 9 players hitting over the SEC league average of .265. Sub Milazzo for Trav and its 5 of 9...unless you sub Trav for Beloso at DH and its back to 6 of 9.
quote:
Now most of the starters are hitting below league average?
This just isn't factual.
A starting lineup of Dugas, Morgan, Crews, White, Beloso, Jones, Travenski, Jobert, and Thompson gives you 6 of 9 players hitting over the SEC league average of .265. Sub Milazzo for Trav and its 5 of 9...unless you sub Trav for Beloso at DH and its back to 6 of 9.
Posted on 5/10/23 at 2:03 pm to DRock88
quote:
None of this is surprising
Coming full circle it’s not all that surprising
But you go from having the best lineup in the country when those guys were hot to having several potential holes in your lineup. And even bigger decision on whether you can have Milazzo in the lineup with some of these guys, at the expense of travinski,
And Tre Morgan hit like .380 in SEC play as a freshmen. He is good but is a long way from that. Asking Jones to be the 3rd guy is a big ask. Tre really needs to heat up down the stretch
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