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An unemotional look at LSU's NCAA tourney chances
Posted on 3/13/15 at 5:33 pm
Posted on 3/13/15 at 5:33 pm
Going in to today, LSU was a 9 seed, above 11 at-large teams, according to bracket matrix which is an average of over 100 projection websites. LSU would have to fall below all 11 plus another team previously out to not get in.
Bracket Matrix
Here are the teams that were below LSU according to bracket matrix. Note: while I trust Lunardi, I also trust the effect of averaging a large population:
1. Davidson (won today)
2. Colorado State (vs. san Diego State tonight)
3. Georgia (vs. SC tonight)
4. Ok State (lost to OU)
5. Boise State
6. Texas (lost to Iowa State)
7. Purdue (won today)
8. Temple (won today)
9. Ole Miss (lost to SC yesterday)
10. Indiana (plays Maryland tonight)
11. BYU
========
12. UCLA (Arizona tonight)
13. Texas A&M (no way they pass us)
14. Old Dominion (lost to Middle Tenn yesterday; can't see them passing us)
15. Miami (lost last night, no way they catch us imo)
I didn't update all the info but put what I knew in parenthesis. Certainly some of those teams will pass us up, but it is hard to imagine 12 of them passing. Would be good to see UCLA and Indiana lose.
And FYI, I find it ironic that the complaint against LSU (legitimately) is that we lose to weak teams (often at home) but beat beat good teams away from home...yet everyone is saying we are 100% one in done in a tourney full of good teams away from home.
Bracket Matrix
Here are the teams that were below LSU according to bracket matrix. Note: while I trust Lunardi, I also trust the effect of averaging a large population:
1. Davidson (won today)
2. Colorado State (vs. san Diego State tonight)
3. Georgia (vs. SC tonight)
4. Ok State (lost to OU)
5. Boise State
6. Texas (lost to Iowa State)
7. Purdue (won today)
8. Temple (won today)
9. Ole Miss (lost to SC yesterday)
10. Indiana (plays Maryland tonight)
11. BYU
========
12. UCLA (Arizona tonight)
13. Texas A&M (no way they pass us)
14. Old Dominion (lost to Middle Tenn yesterday; can't see them passing us)
15. Miami (lost last night, no way they catch us imo)
I didn't update all the info but put what I knew in parenthesis. Certainly some of those teams will pass us up, but it is hard to imagine 12 of them passing. Would be good to see UCLA and Indiana lose.
And FYI, I find it ironic that the complaint against LSU (legitimately) is that we lose to weak teams (often at home) but beat beat good teams away from home...yet everyone is saying we are 100% one in done in a tourney full of good teams away from home.
This post was edited on 3/13/15 at 5:47 pm
12
Posted on 3/13/15 at 5:35 pm to lsumatt
looking at those teams i feel like we should be safe. At most only 9 of them should be able to move up. the other ones have lost around the same time as us so we should be ok.
Posted on 3/13/15 at 5:36 pm to lsumatt
We should be in regardless, people saying "NIT" are just frustrated with the loss. Enough other bubble teams around us lost that we should be fine.
Agreed. If we'd found a way to win today, I wouldn't have been surprised at all if we'd given Kentucky a game. That's just how this team operates.
quote:
And FYI, I find it ironic that the complaint against LSU (legitimately) is that we lose to weak teams (often at home) but beat beat good teams away from home...yet everyone is saying we are 100% one in done in a tourney full of good teams away from home.
Agreed. If we'd found a way to win today, I wouldn't have been surprised at all if we'd given Kentucky a game. That's just how this team operates.
Posted on 3/13/15 at 5:38 pm to lsumatt
Posted on 3/13/15 at 5:40 pm to CheerWhine
IF we get in like we should then I hope we aren't in the stupid play in game. That is the only game where we might actually be favored and then we wont show up
Posted on 3/13/15 at 5:41 pm to lsumatt
quote:
yet everyone is saying we are 100% one in done in a tourney
I think it's pretty clear that the frustration being shown is that people know LSU can beat good teams.
Posted on 3/13/15 at 5:41 pm to lsumatt
ODU lost to Middle Tennessee too. They're done.
I could've sworn the goal before the season was to just reach the tournament. We've very likely reached the NCAA, so why do people want to fire our coach? Isn't job performance based on reaching your goals? Wasn't our only goal to reach the tournament? We've fricking done that. Not only are we going to the tourney, but we're going to get the No.1 recruiting class. I mean holy frick somebody help me.
I could've sworn the goal before the season was to just reach the tournament. We've very likely reached the NCAA, so why do people want to fire our coach? Isn't job performance based on reaching your goals? Wasn't our only goal to reach the tournament? We've fricking done that. Not only are we going to the tourney, but we're going to get the No.1 recruiting class. I mean holy frick somebody help me.
Posted on 3/13/15 at 5:42 pm to heartbreakTiger
This team has no business in the NCAA tourney-not after today!!!
Posted on 3/13/15 at 5:42 pm to moneyg
quote:
I think it's pretty clear that the frustration being shown is that people know LSU can beat good teams.
then why are they starting threads saying that LSU has no chance to win a game?
Posted on 3/13/15 at 5:43 pm to BobBarker
The issue is what is holding this team back from being great. Its mistakes that are happening over and over. Some of those mistakes are a direct reflection of Jones
Posted on 3/13/15 at 5:43 pm to StarkvilleTigerFan
quote:
This team has no business in the NCAA tourney-not after today!!!
explain why those 12 teams below them do deserve an NCAA spot.
Posted on 3/13/15 at 5:43 pm to BobBarker
quote:
I could've sworn the goal before the season was to just reach the tournament. We've very likely reached the NCAA, so why do people want to fire our coach? Isn't job performance based on reaching your goals? Wasn't our only goal to reach the tournament? We've fricking done that. Not only are we going to the tourney, but we're going to get the No.1 recruiting class. I mean holy frick somebody help me.
Posted on 3/13/15 at 5:44 pm to lsumatt
I'm guessing one of the play-in games.
Posted on 3/13/15 at 5:45 pm to StarkvilleTigerFan
Neither do a lot of these other teams, but due to the size of the tournament, some of them will get in anyway. We'll be fine.
Posted on 3/13/15 at 5:47 pm to CheerWhine
The most box office would be LSU/Texas and Ole Miss/Indiana.
Posted on 3/13/15 at 5:47 pm to TheWalrus
A play in game would be horrible for this team. It would be a team they expect to just roll up. We are much more dangerous playing a higher seed
Posted on 3/13/15 at 5:48 pm to heartbreakTiger
Agreed. If we sneak in great, we are probably in the top 64 teams in the country. But we so underachieved, we now have to sweat out a bid that should have been banked weeks ago. Something is missing with this team. Chemistry, I think. Too many cooks want to be chefs, I think.
Still, get in, anything can happen. That's the whole point of getting in. We fail at that. Dale Brown would lose a final four and final 8 had he never been in the tourney. And the SEC sucks supporting LSU. In my fricking opinion.
Still, get in, anything can happen. That's the whole point of getting in. We fail at that. Dale Brown would lose a final four and final 8 had he never been in the tourney. And the SEC sucks supporting LSU. In my fricking opinion.
Posted on 3/13/15 at 5:49 pm to heartbreakTiger
quote:
It would be a team they expect to just roll up. We are much more dangerous playing a higher seed
The play in game team would be a team of Ole Miss's caliber who we beat twice.
Posted on 3/13/15 at 5:50 pm to Loveland Tiger
It is missing a head coach that has a clue. I feel like Jones coaching has actually regressed each year that he has been here. He took a dog shite roster and made that team competitive and administrative mistakes cost us a NIT bid. Its so frustrating watching this team play so well and then so bad
Posted on 3/13/15 at 5:50 pm to Loveland Tiger
Basically this team is like 2014 UT. Could make the sweet 16 or could flame out in the play in game.
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