re: AD's weigh in: Coronavirus vs College Football (SI)

quote:

---

quote:
With the Flu, using a corporate finance theory, that information is already Priced in the value of the Stock. We have a Vaccine for Flu, we know how to treat it when people get sick, and we have years of data that allows the US healthcare System (CDC) and all State Health agencies to have clear expectations about the number of patients from the Flu we have a year. The same thing with Cancer, we have years of data, how many people on average get Cancer, what types of cancer, some if caught early, we can treat. All of that information is priced again in the Stock, to use the economics example.

With COVID-19, we don't have a vaccine, and when those that get it, we don't know how to medicate it and treat it the most effectively, and we don't know what the potential year to year average COVID-19 cases will be as we just don't have the data. That is why the comparison to Flu and Cancer to me, again to, me, is not an Apple to Apple comparison.

So that is why we are where we are. A year from now, lets hope we have a vaccine and after 1 year of data, the Medical profession will know what the best treatments are for those who get it, the system will better know what the expectations are about likely COVID-19 cases, just like they know pretty accurately, how many people are get the flu each year, how many are diagnosed with cancer each year, etc, and the Health Care system will be better equipped to manage it, along with all the other stuff, they have to manage.


You are one to kick the can down the road, and prolong us becoming immune to this crappy arse virus. We don't have shite for anything that can CURE the flu still. This virus has been over-hyped and now its being weaponized and political. What a shame. I say life back to normal and the strong survive. If we just try to live scared it will beat us eventually.

---

No ur wrong, we have a vaccine for the flu that has prevented the type of deaths that occurred with the 1917-1918 Flu epidemic. We have a Flu vaccine that mitigates significant carnage. That is the fact jack. We know how to treat those who get it and yes despite that, some people, those who are heavy, heavy, smokers, etc, or have poor health do to lifestyle choices over the years, heavy drinkers, don't eat right, don't exercise, still die at rates 30-40K per year.

This thing has killed > 14,000 in March and April, warmer weather. What would happen potentially if this thing would have hit the USA say in October when the normal flue season starts? That is the uncertainty.

And even if things open back up by next fall, it is going to be very different for some people. How many people are going to go and tale gate in crowds on Campus during November games next fall? I don't know, but my guess at lost less than it would have been. How many people are going to cramp up in movie theaters, restaurants, clubs, during the fall and winter months later this year, if there is no vaccine. I don't know the exact number, but fewer than before.

quote:

---

AD's weigh in: Coronavirus vs College Football (SI)
Getting tired of this BS but it’s so addicting to look at.

1. Summer classes are moved online because most start in June and run through July, so it wouldn’t be a “bad look” to bring players back in July IF it is deemed safe enough.

2. There is no way these games would be played without fans in the stands. That would just be an absolute terrible look and is not college football.

-Takeaway: by June 1st we will have a good idea on which way the country is heading, but until then we are totally guessing on what’s going to happen.

---

No there is a way it could happen. Nobody knows. MLB is thinking about putting all teams in Arizona, cut down travel through Airports, etc. and maybe play all the games there in the Minor league parks with no fans. I think the NBA if they start to play again is thinking of doing something similar, play with no fans.

So it is > 0 probability that football could be played in front of no fans next fall. I don't know why people can't come to grips with that fact.

I do agree with you by June 1, we will have more data. Maybe by then the models can estimate how many people have already been infected and were not high risk groups, heavy, heavy smokers, those with high blood pressure, reduced lung capacity, diabetes, etc do to lifestyle choices relative to diet and exercise, etc.

If for example 80% or so of the people are likely to have already been exposed to it, then I think you can go ahead. Those other 20% if you are in the high risk groups, over 60 or 70, have serious immune issues and other health issues, those people need to stay out of crowds until a vaccine is developed. Under that scenario, I can see things getting somewhat back to normal.

But until a vaccine is developed, not totally normal.

The Flu killed close to 700,000 Americans in the fall of 1917 to spring of 1918. Since then, we have through Vaccines and knowing how to treat the Flu, reduced the amount of deaths each year to about 30,000 a year or so. Those are two really different numbers, which goes back to what I said earlier, we already have 15,000 deaths basically in lest than 1.5 months (March/April), which is the warmer part of the normal flu season, and we don't have a vaccine nor do we know the best way to treat/medicate it yet.