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3 reasons why LSU would move ahead of Tennessee if LSU wins out
Posted on 11/16/22 at 6:59 am
Posted on 11/16/22 at 6:59 am
1. People arguing Tennessee beat LSU head to head would have to acknowledge the circle that includes UGA, like Pollack said last night. UGA > UT > LSU > UGA. Transitive property doesn't hold up in college football.
2. Recency bias. That FSU loss is basically forgotten at this point 3 months later. LSU's last win would be it's most impressive, and leave LSU as the champion of the toughest conference in the country. The Cmte values conference champs.
3. LSU is playing an extra game. While the Vols are home "safe" with their one loss, LSU and UGA are risking it on the field. The Cmte puts weight on this, and LSU would also have the same # of wins as the Vols.
The Vols need a lot more help than LSU, imo. They'd be left home behind any of these conference champs: a 1-loss USC, undefeated TCU, and maybe even a 1-loss Clemson.
2. Recency bias. That FSU loss is basically forgotten at this point 3 months later. LSU's last win would be it's most impressive, and leave LSU as the champion of the toughest conference in the country. The Cmte values conference champs.
3. LSU is playing an extra game. While the Vols are home "safe" with their one loss, LSU and UGA are risking it on the field. The Cmte puts weight on this, and LSU would also have the same # of wins as the Vols.
The Vols need a lot more help than LSU, imo. They'd be left home behind any of these conference champs: a 1-loss USC, undefeated TCU, and maybe even a 1-loss Clemson.
13
Posted on 11/16/22 at 7:02 am to clamdip
quote:
3. LSU is playing an extra game. While the Vols are home "safe" with their one loss, LSU and UGA are risking it on the field. The Cmte puts weight on this, and LSU would also have the same # of wins as the Vols.
The seccg isn’t a liability for LSU. Without that game, LSU absolutely does not have a chance to get in the playoffs.
This post was edited on 11/16/22 at 9:11 am
Posted on 11/16/22 at 7:02 am to clamdip
I agree with you.
It's fun to talk about these scenarios, but even as fans who have nothing to do with the outcome of the games, maybe just pump the brakes and enjoy the ride?
We're 8-2 with a chance to win 13 games this season. Most likely scenario is 10-3 and a marquee bowl matchup in year 1 of BK.
While not as exciting as 2019 when you could feel the magic, just bask in this one. This is a special season that will be talked about for years.
It's fun to talk about these scenarios, but even as fans who have nothing to do with the outcome of the games, maybe just pump the brakes and enjoy the ride?
We're 8-2 with a chance to win 13 games this season. Most likely scenario is 10-3 and a marquee bowl matchup in year 1 of BK.
While not as exciting as 2019 when you could feel the magic, just bask in this one. This is a special season that will be talked about for years.
Posted on 11/16/22 at 7:08 am to notbilly
quote:
The seccg isn’t a liability for LSU. Without that game, LSU was absolutely not have a chance to get in the playoffs.
You and I are saying the same thing.
Posted on 11/16/22 at 7:11 am to Odysseus32
quote:
We're 8-2 with a chance to win 13 games this season. Most likely scenario is 10-3 and a marquee bowl matchup in year 1 of BK.
While not as exciting as 2019 when you could feel the magic, just bask in this one. This is a special season that will be talked about for years.
Agreed. If we win the SEC and get left out of the CFP I'd bask in that accomplishment. Even winning 10 with a chance in a big bowl to get to 11 is a hell of a first season.
Posted on 11/16/22 at 7:23 am to clamdip
I’m not worried
Posted on 11/16/22 at 7:23 am to clamdip
quote:
Agreed. If we win the SEC and get left out of the CFP I'd bask in that accomplishment.
I’ll be bummed but I won’t think it’s terribly unfair. That being said, NOBODY would have more good wins than LSU if we win out. Let’s win these last three and force the issue.
Posted on 11/16/22 at 7:24 am to clamdip
quote:
and maybe even a 1-loss Clemson.
I agree with everything you said except Clemson is not getting in. Clemson has a terrible 35-14 Notre Dame loss in November and their only quality win vs. a current top 25 team is a 6-point win over currently #20 ranked Florida State, meaning they have zero top 15 wins.
Posted on 11/16/22 at 7:42 am to YeauxTigers
Tennessee is a near touchdown favorite over Clemson.
Posted on 11/16/22 at 7:48 am to clamdip
Even if Tennessee has beaten LSU we often see teams ranked higher due to a stringer resume, so it is possible but we still have 2 loses and they have 1 so both sides have the argument. I’m on the fence here because their SOS is very weak with 1-loss and LSU 2-loses with a head to head loss. This is a tough one
Posted on 11/16/22 at 8:01 am to clamdip
quote:
3. LSU is playing an extra game. While the Vols are home "safe" with their one loss, LSU and UGA are risking it on the field. The Cmte puts weight on this, and LSU would also have the same # of wins as the Vols.
A.) the SECG is paramount for LSU. The mere fact that Tennessee will be on their couch that weekend matters.
B.) LSU is risking it on the field. If UGA coasts through their last 2 games, they will feel safe losing in the SECG and still make the playoff. It’s possible (however unlikely) they treat the SECG as a bye week before the playoff run.
It annoys me that Tennessee is even in the conversation having not won their division. If you aren’t even playing for your conference championship, then you shouldn’t be in consideration for the CFP. Just my opinion. Conference Championships should be mandatory for a team to even be in the conversation.
Posted on 11/16/22 at 8:04 am to LSUstephen17
LSU would have 3 wins over Top 10 teams: Ole Miss, Alabama & Georgia. Tenn has 2:
Posted on 11/16/22 at 8:08 am to WackyChris
quote:
Conference Championships should be mandatory for a team to even be in the conversation.
True dat - And any non-conference contender should have at least 3 or 4 wins against the top half of SOME of those conferences.
Posted on 11/16/22 at 8:10 am to clamdip
Just win baby. Let the committee figure the rest out.
Beat UAB and A&M and we're at 10 wins. That was the ceiling for even the most optimistic fans to start the season. Most thought that was impossible, especially after losing a game to start the season that most counted as a probable win.
Beat UAB and A&M and we're at 10 wins. That was the ceiling for even the most optimistic fans to start the season. Most thought that was impossible, especially after losing a game to start the season that most counted as a probable win.
Posted on 11/16/22 at 8:11 am to clamdip
Georgia should lose to us on purpose just to frick over Tennessee one more time
Posted on 11/16/22 at 8:28 am to clamdip
You didn’t provide any new knowledge that no one else on here hasn’t already thought of.
Posted on 11/16/22 at 8:36 am to notbilly
quote:
The seccg isn’t a liability for LSU. Without that game, LSU was absolutely not have a chance to get in the playoffs.
Agreed. But this is why any expansion of the playoffs needs to involve some kind of auto-bid for conference champs.
Rather than speculate about what the committee might think or try to guess what will happen if this team or that team loses, we need to make it official that conference championships mean something.
Will it mean that an "undeserving" champ could sneak into the playoffs over a team with a better record? Sure. But that's what makes it so exciting. Could you imagine the 2001 SEC Championship Game if #21 LSU was playing #2 UT with a playoff berth on the line? Would've been even more exciting to watch than it already was.
This post was edited on 11/16/22 at 8:37 am
Posted on 11/16/22 at 8:56 am to WackyChris
I mean you can dislike it all you want but the committee's job is to put the 4 best teams in the CFP, and Tennessee is likely one of those 4. By your logic, USC or Clemson would likely have a spot in the playoffs and that would be fricking horrendous. We saw that theory unfold with Cincinnati last year and we'll see it again if TCU gets in this year.
Posted on 11/16/22 at 9:13 am to clamdip
We won the West.
Tenn did not win their division.
End of discussion.
Tenn did not win their division.
End of discussion.
Posted on 11/16/22 at 9:52 am to TheGeauxt18
quote:
I mean you can dislike it all you want but the committee's job is to put the 4 best teams in the CFP
Actually, that’s not exactly true. Their criteria are to select the 4 best conference champions, then only displace those champions where a non-champion is CLEARLY better. That’s not necessarily picking the 4 best teams.
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