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re: Proof that stars are very overrated!
Posted on 8/21/17 at 3:49 pm to Crawfish Anytime
Posted on 8/21/17 at 3:49 pm to Crawfish Anytime
When you're a program that depends on NFL level talent for success, then stars matter a lot.
LSU doesn't want players that can succeed on the college level, they want players that can succeed on the NFL level. It sounds like common sense but there's a difference in the recruiting strategy behind the two goals.
The raw numbers aren't what's important. What's important to know that a higher percentage of 5*s and 4*s go on to achieve success at the NFL level. Of course there's going to be more 3* in raw numbers because there are many more of them in the first place.
If someone made a bet based on the likelihood of any random 5* to make the NFL over any random 3*, you'd be an idiot to pick the 3*.
LSU doesn't want players that can succeed on the college level, they want players that can succeed on the NFL level. It sounds like common sense but there's a difference in the recruiting strategy behind the two goals.
The raw numbers aren't what's important. What's important to know that a higher percentage of 5*s and 4*s go on to achieve success at the NFL level. Of course there's going to be more 3* in raw numbers because there are many more of them in the first place.
If someone made a bet based on the likelihood of any random 5* to make the NFL over any random 3*, you'd be an idiot to pick the 3*.
This post was edited on 8/21/17 at 3:56 pm
Posted on 8/21/17 at 4:28 pm to Crawfish Anytime
quote:
You're the typical college fan that believes everything he reads. I'm not saying some 4 and 5 stars don't pan out, but most are very overrated. Remember Russell Shepard and Ryan Perriolloux? These two were can't miss prospects and neither was nearly as good as advertised! There's a list of players like that on every major roster! I put more on coach evaluations than somebody trying to sell subscriptions that you have no clue to their background. Keep sending them your money, they love fans like you!
You are the typical loudmouth that speaks without thinking. what facts do you have to show the success/failure of 5 stars vs lesser rated players? RP was not underrated. He was as good as advertised. The stars are in reference to their athletic ability, not their real life decision making skills. Do you know what a half truth is? Russell Shepard was an amazing "athlete" nowhere in the country would he have been allowed to play QB. Maybe he never fulfilled what we thought he would be but he had the ball in his hand on every snap in high school, not catching it. His time here, was greatly limited by the offensive philosophy and coaching. he's still in the NFL right now. You don't get to stay in the NFL if you aren't good. In summary you are full of shite. Come correct with real knowledge about these guys and don't spout nonsense to fulfill your narrative.
Posted on 8/21/17 at 4:43 pm to swlaLSUfan
Absolutely! Since so many claim to know some much about recruiting, what is the formula to determine a four star from a five star? How does a player suddenly get a star added during the off-season when he's the same player he's always been? How does someone rate a four star on one site and a three star on another? It's someone's opinion and they will continue to pump certain recruits because it sells! And it's apparent from many of the responses a lot of people are buying what they're selling!
Posted on 8/21/17 at 5:05 pm to Crawfish Anytime
quote:
Crawfish Anytime
After reading this thread you might be the biggest dumbass on this board
Posted on 8/21/17 at 5:14 pm to djrunner
Then explain that to the thousands of other LSU fans who thought Shepard was the biggest waste of talent to go through LSU. I remember reading numerous threads shitting on Miles on how he used shepard.
Posted on 8/21/17 at 5:33 pm to Crawfish Anytime
quote:
when he's the same player he's always been?
1. players get better. Some players aren't as good because others have now hit puberty (maybe they hit puberty earlier).
2. players go to more camps as they get older
3. evaulators get to see more film and can better evaluate.
this isn't that hard.
quote:
How does someone rate a four star on one site and a three star on another?
it's called opinion. No one ever claimed it was an exact science.
quote:
It's someone's opinion and they will continue to pump certain recruits because it sells!
yes. kids that commit to bigger programs get more attention. There is some bias in recruiting rankings.
quote:
And it's apparent from many of the responses a lot of people are buying what they're selling!
you're literally on a recruiting site talking to people who follow recruiting.
This post was edited on 8/21/17 at 5:34 pm
Posted on 8/21/17 at 9:13 pm to Crawfish Anytime
quote:
what is the formula to determine a four star from a five star
The stars are just a designation to differentiate between prospects. It's like asking what's the formula to determine a first round picks from a second round pick from a 3rd round pick etc. Do you think the coaches don't have a hierarchy or rankings of players? Of course they do.
quote:
How does a player suddenly get a star added during the off-season when he's the same player he's always been
The rankings are not updated daily, they typically are updated a few times a year. Usually after the season when how they played is evaluated and again sometime in the summer or spring after camps, combines. If you don't realize players improve, especially HS kids over time then i really don't know what to say except you obviously just don't like recruiting or watch football.
quote:
How does someone rate a four star on one site and a three star on another
Asked
quote:
It's someone's opinion
And answered.
You said before you trust the coaches evaluation. Do you not understand that coaches miss all the time? They pass on kids that turn out to be good all the time. Khalil Mack was the NFL DPOY in 2016. He's from Florida but played college FB at Buffalo in the MAC is that proof that the evaluations of all the coaches that recruit Florida overrated since they all missed?
quote:this is a nonsense argument
And it's apparent from many of the responses a lot of people are buying what they're selling
The only people that think recruiting is an exact science are people that don't follow it. There is a clear correlation between highly ranked classes and team success. There are of course exceptions but overall it's a good guide.
This post was edited on 8/22/17 at 8:12 am
Posted on 8/22/17 at 7:25 am to Crawfish Anytime
quote:
Remember Russell Shepard and Ryan Perriolloux?
Yeah, I remember them. One is in the NFL and the other came off the bench to lead LSU to an SEC Championship.
You win idiot of the year!
quote:
I put more on coach evaluations than somebody trying to sell subscriptions that you have no clue to their background. Keep sending them your money, they love fans like you!
Never paid for recruiting info. Also, go back and read my post. I specifically said that for individual players, their offer list is more important than their rating. But for a recruiting class the ratings generally tell the tale. The reason for this is that recruiting services largely base their ratings on offer lists, so it's circular.
You made my day, though, with your examples of overrated players.
Posted on 8/22/17 at 10:02 am to Crawfish Anytime
I don't know why people bring up stuff like this all the time. It shows a severe lack of understanding of statistics. So there were 37 3* or lower. There were 87 players on Pro Bowl rosters.
42.5% 3* or less
57.5% 4/5*
Now how many players are given 4/5* vs 3* or less? A much, much higher % of 4/5* players make it to the NFL and to the Pro Bowl as well.
Your numbers show that stars do matter, and matter a lot.
42.5% 3* or less
57.5% 4/5*
Now how many players are given 4/5* vs 3* or less? A much, much higher % of 4/5* players make it to the NFL and to the Pro Bowl as well.
Your numbers show that stars do matter, and matter a lot.
Posted on 8/22/17 at 10:15 am to MLCLyons
quote:
So there were 37 3* or lower. There were 87 players on Pro Bowl rosters. 42.5% 3* or less 57.5% 4/5*
Posted on 8/22/17 at 2:36 pm to Crawfish Anytime
quote:
These two were can't miss prospects and neither was nearly as good as advertised!
The problem with Shepard was he was a fantastic athlete and his QB rating was based on potential (the dreaded upside). He was a team player, changed positions and did what was asked of him. He did make it to the NFL. I cut him a little slack. We'll never know what kind of QB he would have made.
RP, on the other hand - classic example of a million dollar body and a 50 cent head. I'm not saying he was a bad kid or even dumb, just judgment-impaired. He also made it to the league. Imagine RP in 2008 and 2009 - might have been easier to develop a QB out of JJ and Lee if they hadn't been pressed into service so quickly.
Stars are probably a bit overrated by rabid recruitniks and recruiting services, perhaps even by the casual fan, because of what it represents: it represents an aggregate of subjective and objective factors, including measurables, performance (weighted against quality of opposition), and "potential" (however the hell that's calculated) at the college level.
The ratings are generally correct when they are assessed. When a recruit doesn't pan out because of injury, does that mean the rating was wrong? Or because he's a sociopath? Or he can't stay away from casinos? What about a kid that could be a great WR in 2 years, but his team needs him at safety right now? So, he develops into an above average safety and goes late in the draft - does that make his recruiting rating in HS "wrong"?
This post was edited on 8/22/17 at 2:37 pm
Posted on 8/22/17 at 3:59 pm to MLCLyons
quote:
Proof that stars are very overrated! I don't know why people bring up stuff like this all the time. It shows a severe lack of understanding of statistics. So there were 37 3* or lower. There were 87 players on Pro Bowl rosters. 42.5% 3* or less 57.5% 4/5* Now how many players are given 4/5* vs 3* or less? A much, much higher % of 4/5* players make it to the NFL and to the Pro Bowl as well. Your numbers show that stars do matter, and matter a lot.
OP made a thread and just got destroyed in one post
LINK
Posted on 8/22/17 at 8:59 pm to Crawfish Anytime
quote:
Thirty seven players on last year's Pro Bowl rosters were three stars or less coming out of high school. If that doesn't convince you that stars are overrated, nothing will!
That's it, 37?
You know there are ~4,000 3stars and ~100 5stars playing college football right now right?
Posted on 8/23/17 at 5:33 am to Crawfish Anytime
An article worth reading in regards to stars and championships
Blue-Chip RatioPosted on 8/22/17 at 7:34 pm
31
THE 2017 BLUE-CHIP RATIO: YOUR COLLEGE FOOTBALL CHAMP WILL BE ONE OF THESE 10 TEAMS
by Bud Elliott
I have a pretty good idea who will win the national championship this season. The list of true contenders is short.
It’s not based on my opinion, but rather a simple stat I’ve been tracking for a few years: the Blue-Chip Ratio, which shows what percentage of a team’s signees are rated four- or five-stars ("blue chips") as recruits.
It boils down to teams that sign more four- and five-star recruits than two- and three-stars, over the previous four recruiting classes. That’s an exclusive club, usually consisting of the top 10 percent of FBS programs. All of the national champs over the last decade-plus have accomplished it, and often, the team taking home the trophy has signed many more elite players.
Clemson took home the title in 2016 after signing 52 percent blue chips in the 2013-16 classes. In 2015, it was Alabama with a 77 percent mark. In 2014, it was Ohio State at 68 percent. In 2013, it was Florida State at 53. And on and on.
As my colleague Bill Connelly has said, winning in college football takes talent acquisition, development, and deployment. I agree. But Gene Chizik has a national title, while Mark Dantonio and Gary Patterson do not; acquisition is by far the most important element. By NCAA rule, coaches get just 20 hours per week with their players. Only so much development can be done.
(It’s worth it to add a disclaimer. This metric is quite useful for determining which teams have signed elite talent. It is not the most useful for differentiating between bad and below average teams, or below average and average; some teams simply do not have much of a shot of signing elite prospects and instead try to find diamonds in the rough. That’s a strategy that can produce wins, though perhaps not rings.)
THIS YEAR, IN ORDER, IT IS ALABAMA, OHIO STATE, LSU, FLORIDA STATE, GEORGIA, USC, MICHIGAN, AUBURN, CLEMSON, AND NOTRE DAME.
THESE TEAMS MADE THE BLUE-CHIP RATIO CUT
Team Blue-Chip Ratio
Alabama 80%
Ohio State 71%
LSU 65%
Florida State 65%
Georgia 63%
USC 63%
Michigan 61%
Auburn 59%
Clemson 56%
Notre Dame 56%
That’s it. Ten teams. There are no real surprises; it’s all bluebloods. This year features the lowest number of teams meeting the 50 percent threshold since I began tracking. Usually there are two or three more.
LINK
Blue-Chip RatioPosted on 8/22/17 at 7:34 pm
31
THE 2017 BLUE-CHIP RATIO: YOUR COLLEGE FOOTBALL CHAMP WILL BE ONE OF THESE 10 TEAMS
by Bud Elliott
I have a pretty good idea who will win the national championship this season. The list of true contenders is short.
It’s not based on my opinion, but rather a simple stat I’ve been tracking for a few years: the Blue-Chip Ratio, which shows what percentage of a team’s signees are rated four- or five-stars ("blue chips") as recruits.
It boils down to teams that sign more four- and five-star recruits than two- and three-stars, over the previous four recruiting classes. That’s an exclusive club, usually consisting of the top 10 percent of FBS programs. All of the national champs over the last decade-plus have accomplished it, and often, the team taking home the trophy has signed many more elite players.
Clemson took home the title in 2016 after signing 52 percent blue chips in the 2013-16 classes. In 2015, it was Alabama with a 77 percent mark. In 2014, it was Ohio State at 68 percent. In 2013, it was Florida State at 53. And on and on.
As my colleague Bill Connelly has said, winning in college football takes talent acquisition, development, and deployment. I agree. But Gene Chizik has a national title, while Mark Dantonio and Gary Patterson do not; acquisition is by far the most important element. By NCAA rule, coaches get just 20 hours per week with their players. Only so much development can be done.
(It’s worth it to add a disclaimer. This metric is quite useful for determining which teams have signed elite talent. It is not the most useful for differentiating between bad and below average teams, or below average and average; some teams simply do not have much of a shot of signing elite prospects and instead try to find diamonds in the rough. That’s a strategy that can produce wins, though perhaps not rings.)
THIS YEAR, IN ORDER, IT IS ALABAMA, OHIO STATE, LSU, FLORIDA STATE, GEORGIA, USC, MICHIGAN, AUBURN, CLEMSON, AND NOTRE DAME.
THESE TEAMS MADE THE BLUE-CHIP RATIO CUT
Team Blue-Chip Ratio
Alabama 80%
Ohio State 71%
LSU 65%
Florida State 65%
Georgia 63%
USC 63%
Michigan 61%
Auburn 59%
Clemson 56%
Notre Dame 56%
That’s it. Ten teams. There are no real surprises; it’s all bluebloods. This year features the lowest number of teams meeting the 50 percent threshold since I began tracking. Usually there are two or three more.
LINK
Posted on 8/23/17 at 6:38 am to Crawfish Anytime
.......And this thread continues to confirm my assumption that reading this Board Raises my blood pressure Rather than inform me about LSU. There are only 25 to 35 5 stars a year. And they make the NFL at a higher rate. But hey ......#nomore5stars!!
Posted on 8/23/17 at 10:24 am to swlaLSUfan
quote:
Alabama players get higher rankings just for committing to Bama.
and we all have seen how overrated Bama has been year after year.
Posted on 8/23/17 at 3:00 pm to TheCaterpillar
Crawfish anytime should be banned for stupidity
Posted on 8/23/17 at 4:57 pm to LildripDraws
Continue to follow the stars because that's what fans do! If you only knew the real story behind recruiting, you would understand but you can't talk common sense to the everyday football fan!
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