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Started By
Message
re: 3* ATH Tae Provens (Madison Co/Alabama) Commits
Posted on 6/25/17 at 5:20 pm to LSUTil_iDie
Posted on 6/25/17 at 5:20 pm to LSUTil_iDie
quote:
It's funny how Bama is usually the measuring stick, but yet no one has brought up the fact that they only have FIVE COMMITS right now. But yeah let's continue to push this narrative that we're struggling on the recruiting trail.
It's June...let me know where they're at in February.
0
Posted on 6/25/17 at 6:22 pm to Captain Crown
I guess people don't realize LSU has probably put more three stars into the NFL than four stars. By the end of their senior season, every single one of these 3 stars could be upgraded to 4 stars. Like you said, it's early in the evaluation process. Plus, I think it may help LSU recruit the state of Alabama by signing a few from that state. Especially players offered by Alabama and/or Auburn. 
Posted on 6/25/17 at 6:26 pm to ParrishGore
quote:
I guess people don't realize LSU has probably put more three stars into the NFL than four stars
This should be pretty easy to track, can you give us the exact numbers?
Posted on 6/25/17 at 7:23 pm to MOT
quote:
This should be pretty easy to track, can you give us the exact numbers?
ESPN
^ ESPNs database of players on NFL rosters. Some won't make the 53 man opening week rosters, a few may be missing idk:
Stars - Name
5 - Jamal Adams
4 - Vadal Alexander
4 - Kwon Alexander
4 - Joe Barksdale
3 - Lamin Barrow
4 - Odell Beckham Jr.
4 - Kendell Beckwith
3 - Alfred Blue
4 - Tashawn Bower
2 - Delvin Breaux
4 - Michael Brockers
4 - Ron Brooks
3 - Morris Claiborne
3 - Jalen Collins
5 - La'el Collins
5 - Malachi Dupre
3 - Travin Dural
3 - Lavar Edwards
4 - Ego Ferguson
2 - Reid Ferguson
5 - Leonard Fournette
4 - Davon Godchaux
3 - Dillon Gordon
? - Cyril Grayson
3 - Jerald Hawkins
4 - Jeremy Hill
4 - Kenny Hilliard
4 - Danielle Hunter
3 - Ricky Jean Francois
4 - Rickey Jefferson
UR Colin Jeter
5 - Anthony Johnson
3 - Deion Jones
? - Donnie Jones
3 - Brandon LaFell
5 - Jarvis Landry
3 - Bennie Logan
4 - Lamar Louis
3 - Terrence Magee
3 - Ronald Martin
3 - Tyrann Mathieu
4 - Zach Mettenberger
3 - Jalen Mills
4 - Barkevious Mingo
4 - Kevin Minter
3 - Lewis Neal
5 - Patrick Peterson
4 - Ethan Pocic
5 - Rueben Randle
4 - Eric Reid
3 - Duke Riley
4 - Rashard Robinson
5 - Russell Shepard
4 - Dwayne Thomas
3 - Trai Turner
4 - Spencer Ware
4 - Tre'Davious White
5 - Andrew Whitworth
4 - Kyle Williams
? - Brad Wing
5 - Al Woods
4 - James Wright
5 stars = 11
4 stars = 26
3 stars = 19
Players signed in last 10 draft eligible classes:
5 star = 15
4 star = 101
3 star = 109
I used 247 composite for this list. 247 is the newest of the services so some years composites were retroactively done.
For personal use over the years I was a rivals guy until around 2011 when 247 really took off and the composite became more accurate IMO.
For instance guys like Tyrann Matthieu and Ricky Francois were high ranked 4 stars on rivals, even guys like Trai, Jalen C, and Debo were 4 stars. Other services that are apart of the composite weren't quite as well funded or in depth in the early years as they are now.
This post was edited on 6/25/17 at 8:44 pm
Posted on 6/25/17 at 7:59 pm to Lsuchs
Interesting numbers there.
your in the NFL ratios:
5* to 4*: .42 to 1
4* to 3*: 1.37 to 1
5* to 3*: .58 to 1
Over the last 5 years LSU avg:
1.8 5* per year
14.4 4* per year
8.4 3* per year
Ratios:
5* to 4* = .125 to 1
4* to 3* = 1.71 to 1
5* to 3* = .214 to 1
To me that means that LSU's 5* and 3* fare better in the NFL than do the 4*.
LSU recruits 3* at a lesser pace or ratio that make NFL rosters compared to 5* recruited.
We're recruited 4* at a higher ratio than they fare well in the NFL.
A theory (only a theory): Some of those 4* should have been 3*; many were likely low 4* based on the sheer volume of them. Some, less than the 4* mentioned immediately prior, 3* should have probably been 4*.
If that theory is true, then the distinction between most 4* and 3* (not all) is very fuzzy. I say it comes down to position coaching, the S&C program, and most importantly the effort put into it by the player to just totally screw the line/numbers between many 3* and 4*.
I will however say the gulf between a 5* and a low 4* (and below) is huge. You don't see many 5* busts unless there is personal shite or can't handle the academic side at all. Many times they are a 5* BECAUSE they have incredible dedication and work ethic.
your in the NFL ratios:
5* to 4*: .42 to 1
4* to 3*: 1.37 to 1
5* to 3*: .58 to 1
Over the last 5 years LSU avg:
1.8 5* per year
14.4 4* per year
8.4 3* per year
Ratios:
5* to 4* = .125 to 1
4* to 3* = 1.71 to 1
5* to 3* = .214 to 1
To me that means that LSU's 5* and 3* fare better in the NFL than do the 4*.
LSU recruits 3* at a lesser pace or ratio that make NFL rosters compared to 5* recruited.
We're recruited 4* at a higher ratio than they fare well in the NFL.
A theory (only a theory): Some of those 4* should have been 3*; many were likely low 4* based on the sheer volume of them. Some, less than the 4* mentioned immediately prior, 3* should have probably been 4*.
If that theory is true, then the distinction between most 4* and 3* (not all) is very fuzzy. I say it comes down to position coaching, the S&C program, and most importantly the effort put into it by the player to just totally screw the line/numbers between many 3* and 4*.
I will however say the gulf between a 5* and a low 4* (and below) is huge. You don't see many 5* busts unless there is personal shite or can't handle the academic side at all. Many times they are a 5* BECAUSE they have incredible dedication and work ethic.
Posted on 6/25/17 at 8:14 pm to I20goon
Edited to include players signed last 10 draft eligible classes.
In my personal opinion top 100 players, not necessarily 5 stars, is the best gauge of a programs talent level. Lots of guys 30-50 range aren't much different than 10-30 ranked guys. Outside of the top couple hundred is where everything starts get less accurate.
You have to go a little farther back to get a better picture. 4 of the last 5 signing classes, minus early entrees this past year, are still in college. Relatively young guys like Odell (still on rookie contract) were technically 7 classes ago, Peterson was 10 classes ago. Not to mention guys like Herron and Gilmore who may end up in the league are still in school, and they were signed 5 classes ago.
In my personal opinion top 100 players, not necessarily 5 stars, is the best gauge of a programs talent level. Lots of guys 30-50 range aren't much different than 10-30 ranked guys. Outside of the top couple hundred is where everything starts get less accurate.
quote:
Over the last 5 years LSU avg:
1.8 5* per year
14.4 4* per year
8.4 3* per year
You have to go a little farther back to get a better picture. 4 of the last 5 signing classes, minus early entrees this past year, are still in college. Relatively young guys like Odell (still on rookie contract) were technically 7 classes ago, Peterson was 10 classes ago. Not to mention guys like Herron and Gilmore who may end up in the league are still in school, and they were signed 5 classes ago.
This post was edited on 6/25/17 at 11:29 pm
Posted on 6/25/17 at 10:31 pm to Lsuchs
quote:
You are right. That's why I said classes signed, and that we haven't not signed any highly ranked guys yet just accepted a good bit of lower ranked commitments at this time
Right. We haven't signed anyone yet. It will be interesting to see how many are 3-5 stars with the final rankings. And then more interesting to see how those pan out. But for now there is no star data to freak out about. All we have is coaches evaluations and number of offers. The fact that not only LSU's staff but other top programs' staffs thought highly enough of these 3 stars to offer a scholly this early means they're probably very good.
Posted on 6/25/17 at 10:34 pm to MF Doom
quote:
Sweet another 3 star
I've been thinking the same thing lately. I don't like the trend. I figured guys would come in here and try to justify the moves.
Posted on 6/26/17 at 12:06 am to lagallifrey
I cannot recall a single time in history a three star has become a five star. There is some movement between 3 and 4 stars but never movement as drastic as 5 star territory.
For whatever reason, people just casually toss out star ratings without really reflecting on exactly what they mean. Five stars are the top 25-30 football players in the ENTIRE country. Those players jump off the video screen at you. They are cannot miss talents. So much so that you could show the video to your girlfriend that doesn't know the sport and she would say, "he looks really good."
The difference between a low four are and a high three star is where things are in the margin most of the time. A 5.7 three are and a 5.8 four star are very similar players and do not project that differently. The 5.8 four stars are generally the 250-300 ranked players in the country and the 5.7 are going to be 300-400ish range. Where you do see a gap form is at 5.9 and 6.0 four stars. Those players jump off the screen. These are the "Top 100" players that the previous poster mentioned are those are the ones that make for magical classes. A couple super stars that are five stars, a bunch of highly rated four stars and about 8 5.7 three stars on an ideal Top 10 caliber recruiting class that is actually achievable.
For whatever reason, people just casually toss out star ratings without really reflecting on exactly what they mean. Five stars are the top 25-30 football players in the ENTIRE country. Those players jump off the video screen at you. They are cannot miss talents. So much so that you could show the video to your girlfriend that doesn't know the sport and she would say, "he looks really good."
The difference between a low four are and a high three star is where things are in the margin most of the time. A 5.7 three are and a 5.8 four star are very similar players and do not project that differently. The 5.8 four stars are generally the 250-300 ranked players in the country and the 5.7 are going to be 300-400ish range. Where you do see a gap form is at 5.9 and 6.0 four stars. Those players jump off the screen. These are the "Top 100" players that the previous poster mentioned are those are the ones that make for magical classes. A couple super stars that are five stars, a bunch of highly rated four stars and about 8 5.7 three stars on an ideal Top 10 caliber recruiting class that is actually achievable.
Posted on 6/26/17 at 7:56 am to lynxcat
Good synopsis. I agree with it all. Not that many misses these days based on raw talent.
Personally, I wish the services wouldn't create a mandatory 30 5 stars or whatever. Some years you might have 25 absolute studs worthy of 5 star status and other years maybe 35 or more.
Not a huge deal, but years are not created equal.
Personally, I wish the services wouldn't create a mandatory 30 5 stars or whatever. Some years you might have 25 absolute studs worthy of 5 star status and other years maybe 35 or more.
Not a huge deal, but years are not created equal.
Posted on 6/26/17 at 10:22 am to SoloTiger
Article posted today by Spiegelman with Provens. Provens said he is 100% a RB, nothing else. That Robinson has been after him since he was at USC and they talk every day.
So maybe he didn't take Slade's spot.
So maybe he didn't take Slade's spot.
Posted on 6/26/17 at 10:28 am to JJ27
And that he's always been Robinson's #1 RB target.
Posted on 6/26/17 at 10:42 am to lynxcat
Donte Jackson was a 3-star through May of that recruiting year. In the final rankings he was a top 10 player for 247.
Posted on 6/26/17 at 10:51 am to smash williams
quote:
Donte Jackson was a 3-star through May of that recruiting year. In the final rankings he was a top 10 player for 247.
Donte is a great example of a kid that didn't go to a lot of camps early on and didn't attend a well known high school and throughout his senior year shot up the rankings dramatically.
Posted on 6/26/17 at 2:08 pm to JJ27
quote:USCw always thought highly of him. Guessing so did UT.
Article posted today by Spiegelman with Provens. Provens said he is 100% a RB, nothing else. That Robinson has been after him since he was at USC and they talk every day.
So maybe he didn't take Slade's spot.
Posted on 6/26/17 at 3:52 pm to JJ27
Bolden is very much still in play
Posted on 6/26/17 at 9:15 pm to MOT
It's more of a hypothesis than theory, but yea, it should be. I can name off the top of my head a few 3 stars who went to LSU and then the NFL, as many three's as four's. Off the top of my head that is. But, yea, it'd be a fun little project.
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