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Posted on 8/28/12 at 2:29 pm to Elleshoe
quote:
how come literally NO ONE else is predicting cat 3 winds in BR?
Think about it, the pressure GFS predicting would equal those winds. We would already be at a cat 2 now with a normal hurricane at that MB.
Posted on 8/28/12 at 2:30 pm to LSUzealot
yeah but these things are not machines. they are natural phenomena. there are models to predict what it will do based on sciens and histry but its always goign to be a guessing game. I don't thing CAT 3 can be ruled out, though at this point it appears to the untrained eye that CAT 2 woudl be the maximum potnetial.
Posted on 8/28/12 at 2:31 pm to Tiger Ryno
On TWC
"We have a 75 mph hurricane, finally"
"We have a 75 mph hurricane, finally"
Posted on 8/28/12 at 2:32 pm to LSUzealot
Just got an email from corporate stating that all company business is currently operating as normal.
whew!
oh yea, also...i live in Houston
whew!
oh yea, also...i live in Houston
Posted on 8/28/12 at 2:32 pm to Interception
GFS had a pretty good read on the path as early as Saturday when some of these tards said it had no chance of coming to La.
Posted on 8/28/12 at 2:32 pm to Tiger Ryno
If it turns into a Cat 3 or bad Cat 2 and keeps moving this slow and in this direction, Baton Rouge is gonna get butt raped.
East side of a bad cat 2 or cat 3 moving this slow would punish BR.
But, hopefully it stops gaining power, hurries up along the path, and changes course a little.
East side of a bad cat 2 or cat 3 moving this slow would punish BR.
But, hopefully it stops gaining power, hurries up along the path, and changes course a little.
Posted on 8/28/12 at 2:33 pm to Elleshoe
quote:
I believe he confirmed that this is an expected wind speed based on anticipated barometric pressure, which IS an intelligent estimate based upon the model's algorithms.
quote:
unless I missed him say that... he had previously said basically that that wind speed was laughable.
I'm here to clarify. I believe he (Bay) confirmed that this is an expected (by the GFS model) wind speed based on anticipated barometric pressure (by the GFS model). (Models provide this estimate) which IS an intelligent estimate based upon the model's algorithms (those aren't Bay's words. Those are just facts).
If the GFS is incorrect in it's assessment, I would imagine that those who run it will reassess the model and make tweaks for future runs. I agree with most that their assessment of peak wind speeds seems a bit over the top. I think, however, their model's alignment of the storm system and the future track guidance has been almost spot-on since it started tracking Isaac before it reached Puerto Rico.
Posted on 8/28/12 at 2:33 pm to Lsuhoohoo
I will reporting live from Oak Hills. Good luck everyone, lets see what this beast has in store for us.
Posted on 8/28/12 at 2:34 pm to Impotent Waffle
I'm in Nashville. 80 degrees and bright sunshine.
Posted on 8/28/12 at 2:34 pm to LSUEnvy
That GFS hasn't changed in 3 days.
I think they just kept that map up and said "frick it."
I don't believe we'll even get an inch of rain here in SWLA. Too many models say it's heading north.
I think they just kept that map up and said "frick it."
I don't believe we'll even get an inch of rain here in SWLA. Too many models say it's heading north.
Posted on 8/28/12 at 2:36 pm to Prominentwon
quote:
I don't believe we'll even get an inch of rain here in SWLA. Too many models say it's heading north.
well if the GFS is right, we're going to have one shitty thursday
Posted on 8/28/12 at 2:36 pm to Prominentwon
bold words. I hope calcasiue stays dry.
Posted on 8/28/12 at 2:36 pm to SlowFlowPro
Here in Avoyelles parish, wind is picking up and clouds and trucking by pretty fast.
Posted on 8/28/12 at 2:36 pm to Prominentwon
look at this arse hat on TWC in Alabama 
Posted on 8/28/12 at 2:37 pm to TheCaterpillar
quote:
I'm in Nashville. 80 degrees and bright sunshine.
I'm in Lafayette. 80 degrees and bright sunshine (with some wind.)
Posted on 8/28/12 at 2:37 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
well if the GFS is right, we're going to have one shitty thursday
no doubt. Plants are still operating as normal. Contractors and all.
Posted on 8/28/12 at 2:37 pm to Tiger Ryno
For those of us that live in the Ascension, what time should we expect Isaac to really start making an impact here (right now, just very windy)?
Posted on 8/28/12 at 2:37 pm to SlowFlowPro
GFS has been fairly good about this storm.
It looks though like it has it going west. The storm itself appears to be stalling right now actually.
It looks though like it has it going west. The storm itself appears to be stalling right now actually.
Posted on 8/28/12 at 2:38 pm to supernovasky
quote:
The storm itself appears to be stalling right now actually.
link?
I see that its still moving at 10mph NW
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