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re: Mississippi River Flooding - Links & Pictures in 1st Post
Posted on 5/2/11 at 5:29 pm to nhassl1
Posted on 5/2/11 at 5:29 pm to nhassl1
I have a pretty good idea of how it works considering that I have a degree in civil engineering for with I have been a PE for 6 years and I work for the US Geological Survey Water Resourses Division. I made discharge measurements on the Mississippi River above and below the B Carre Spillway for 15 days in 2008 (the last time the spillway was opened).
I actually just got out of a meeting with my upper management along with members of the hydraulic division of the USCOE to discuss the open of the BC Spillway and the Morganza.
So I know a few things about what is going on. Don't take that as a flame just wanted to state my qualifactions.
Here is the thing, everyone along the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers are worried about the water levels (height). When the people who are making the decisions are making decision based on Disharge (flow).
Yes the levees are only so high but they are designed according to the amount of flow in the rivers. As I said earlier the levees in New Orleans are designed to carry 1.25 million cfs. If you have 1.5 million cfs in Baton Rouge it does not matter what is happening downstream that 1.5 million cfs is going to flow to New Orleans.
The effect on Baton Rouge if the BC spillway is opened may cause the river stage not rise as fast for a short period of time but the level will recover fairly quickly. The BC spillway is a good distance from Baton Rouge (about 50 river miles) so the "stacking up" effect will be small.
BTW the BC spillway will be opened andcould be opened as early as Friday.
I actually just got out of a meeting with my upper management along with members of the hydraulic division of the USCOE to discuss the open of the BC Spillway and the Morganza.
So I know a few things about what is going on. Don't take that as a flame just wanted to state my qualifactions.
Here is the thing, everyone along the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers are worried about the water levels (height). When the people who are making the decisions are making decision based on Disharge (flow).
Yes the levees are only so high but they are designed according to the amount of flow in the rivers. As I said earlier the levees in New Orleans are designed to carry 1.25 million cfs. If you have 1.5 million cfs in Baton Rouge it does not matter what is happening downstream that 1.5 million cfs is going to flow to New Orleans.
The effect on Baton Rouge if the BC spillway is opened may cause the river stage not rise as fast for a short period of time but the level will recover fairly quickly. The BC spillway is a good distance from Baton Rouge (about 50 river miles) so the "stacking up" effect will be small.
BTW the BC spillway will be opened andcould be opened as early as Friday.
2
Posted on 5/2/11 at 5:33 pm to ScottieP
Scottie what are the chances we will see any flooding in BR or NO
Posted on 5/2/11 at 5:33 pm to ScottieP
To me, the question is, does the BC Spillway lower the WSEL at that point? If so, it would cause a larger gradient, and "pull" more water from upstream..... But then if this is the case, the next question is, how big of an effect would it have, and how long would it last? How far upstream does the increased gradient have an effect?
Posted on 5/2/11 at 5:35 pm to HeadBusta4LSU
A little bit of a side track but wouldn't the river jumping and start flowing down the ATC river in the long run help with coastal erosion. Not saying that I want it to or it would be good, just wondering?
Posted on 5/2/11 at 5:36 pm to ScottieP
quote:
1.5 million cfs is going to pass by Baton Rouge if the BC spillway is open or not.
True. But the water surface elevation can be lowered if the gradient is increased (due to lower WSEL downstream).
Posted on 5/2/11 at 5:36 pm to msutiger
quote:
So how is BR Scottie....in english and please dont use big words
Let me put it to you this way. A predicted 47.5ft in Baton Rouge is making a lot of butt holes pucker.
With this new prediction the Bonnet Carre spillway will be fully opened and I would bet the house that the Morganza spillway will be opened.
47.5 ft is 0.2 ft higher than the 1927 flood. They wrote books about that flood.
The record high in Baton Rouge is 47.28 ft.
Posted on 5/2/11 at 5:45 pm to ScottieP
What effects can we expect here in South Louisiana? I really don't know much about any of this (obviously)
Posted on 5/2/11 at 5:52 pm to The Boat
quote:
There's a ring levee around Melville the train tracks go over, but there are openings in it so you can get into Melville. So I don't see how it really protects it if the water rises in the Atchafalaya and comes up highway 10 to the west of the river.
the ring levee is not to protect melville from a west levee break of the atchafalya. it is to protect it from the west atchafalya floodway. it starts just west of the ring levee in simmesport krotz springs also has a ring levee around it too.
anyway, the opening in the ring levee in melville will be sandbagged if need be.
Posted on 5/2/11 at 5:54 pm to LSUJuice
quote:
To me, the question is, does the BC Spillway lower the WSEL at that point?
To a point, yes, but that point is minimal.
I just pulled data from the 2008 flood. The river in BR was rising at a rate of +0.4 feet a day on April 9, 10, and 11th. The spillway was opened on April 12th the river rose at a rate of +0.15 ft on the 12th and the 13th but returned to the +0.4 ft rise per day on the 14th.
So to answer everyones question, the BC spillways effect on the river in Baton Rouge in 2008 was 0.25 ft for 2 days. so 0.5 ft total.
The river continued to rise for another 2 weeks reaching a peak of 43.1 ft.
Damn its late I am going home. Will pick up this convo at the house.
Posted on 5/2/11 at 5:54 pm to ScottieP
Am I going to be able to get to Houma Friday?
Posted on 5/2/11 at 5:55 pm to ScottieP
Scottie you are posting some great info and are obviously a credible source. Thanks man.
Posted on 5/2/11 at 6:22 pm to ChenierauTigre
quote:
Am I going to be able to get to Houma Friday?
I think you will be alright. Don't cancel any weekend plans.
Posted on 5/2/11 at 6:26 pm to ScottieP
A little bit of a side track but wouldn't the river jumping and start flowing down the ATC river in the long run help with coastal erosion. Not saying that I want it to or it would be good, just wondering
repeat
repeat
Posted on 5/2/11 at 6:29 pm to GREENHEAD22
quote:
A little bit of a side track but wouldn't the river jumping and start flowing down the ATC river in the long run help with coastal erosion. Not saying that I want it to or it would be good, just wondering
Yes it would. In essence all of Southern Louisiana is made up of historical Miss. River Deltas. As a result of our channeling and funneling the river, we have essentially forced the river to flow with much of it's sediment being fired off the Continental Shelf and out over the abyssal plane.
In essence when the friction becomes too much, the river "jumps" track to a track that is not so built up. The ATC is that next jump and will create a whole new delta. Unfortunately this would be extremely bad for everyone, so there's that.
ETA: Oceanographer.
This post was edited on 5/2/11 at 6:30 pm
Posted on 5/2/11 at 6:30 pm to ScottieP
My cousin who lives in New Madrid just called and said him and all my other family there is evacuating. The nursing home my great grandmother is at is evacuating also. My cousin is very upset because his farmland will be flooded. My uncle is staying back at the house and said that he's already flooded in. It's very scary over there.
Posted on 5/2/11 at 6:31 pm to CptBengal
Is it a bad idea to go to Memphis this weekend? I heard some talk of flooding there, I wanted to surprise my Mom for mothers day.
Posted on 5/2/11 at 6:32 pm to ScottieP
I am not responding to anyone - just passing along some information.
I have no idea what the deal is with flowage easements in the Morganza Spillway. What I do know is that USACE has failed to obtain easements on over 50,000 acres of the 133,000 acres in the Birds Point New Madrid Floodway. The USACE says they don't need easements on those acres as they flood naturally.
Well, a lot has changed since 1928, and I know one man with a law degree from Harvard who says they do need the easements. He is willing to file suit in Federal Court on a contingency basis to prove it.
If anyone knows people who own property in the Morganza Spillway you might want to pass along this information. Unfortunately I think their day is coming.
I have no idea what the deal is with flowage easements in the Morganza Spillway. What I do know is that USACE has failed to obtain easements on over 50,000 acres of the 133,000 acres in the Birds Point New Madrid Floodway. The USACE says they don't need easements on those acres as they flood naturally.
Well, a lot has changed since 1928, and I know one man with a law degree from Harvard who says they do need the easements. He is willing to file suit in Federal Court on a contingency basis to prove it.
If anyone knows people who own property in the Morganza Spillway you might want to pass along this information. Unfortunately I think their day is coming.
Posted on 5/2/11 at 6:32 pm to Napoleon
quote:
Is it a bad idea to go to Memphis this weekend? I heard some talk of flooding there, I wanted to surprise my Mom for mothers day.
I have no idea. I deal with salt water. Estuaries are part of my knowledge base hence the answer to Greenhead's question.
That far up, ask da river folk.
Posted on 5/2/11 at 6:34 pm to CptBengal
Flooding in Memphis at Mud Island. There used to be about 80 yards of a park where the water is. I hope it doesn't rise any farther...
Posted on 5/2/11 at 6:34 pm to LSU Tigershark
quote:
What effects can we expect here in South Louisiana? I really don't know much about any of this (obviously)
Look its alot of water. Water in an amount that no one has seen since 1927. Hell this may be more water than 1927 (but remember the B Carre and the Morganza spillway did not exist in 1927 to act as a relief valve for the river).
Officals are going to monitor the river and open the B Carre spillway and then the Morganza spillway when needed. The major concern is water over topping levees and sand boils near the river along river road.
Angola Prison will probably be evacuated and lot of people will be very nervous for about a month especially the CORPS. Other than that farmers in Morganza spillway will be pissed, people outside the levee system in the Morgan City area is going to see a shite pot of water/flooding,crawfishing in the Basin will be screwed, and fishing in the lake and near Venice will be tough.
Unless a levee fails.. then bring on Katrina Part 2. I kid.. maybe???
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