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re: Players’ union expects no fans at NBA games during 2020-21 season
Posted on 6/20/20 at 12:41 pm to SlowFlowPro
Posted on 6/20/20 at 12:41 pm to SlowFlowPro
You’re just floundering at this point.
Italy and Germany have both also achieved similar declines in spread and new cases despite largely reopening. So again, your assertion that everyone will become Texas and Florida has no merit. Texas and Florida are where they are because they failed to do what Germany, Italy, Australia, and New Zealand did. And seem poised to refuse to do it going forward.
And if we had controlled the spread as a country we wouldn’t be seeing these hot spots of exponential growth, that is the definition of failing to stop spread.
You keep just saying things, and as this goes on and it’s clear you haven’t actually familiarized your self with much of anything on this topic, from the raw trends and statistics of all manner of states and countries, which hasn’t stopped you from making assertions about them, or even bothered to read any of the scientific and research literature on lockdown and reopening strategies, evidenced by assuming basic assumptions that would be clear with even a summary reading are not assumed. But want to assert what we NEED to do is this absurd herd immunity strategy that based on your lack of familiarity with the strategic responses is more akin to a hot take than any sort of researched conclusion.
Italy and Germany have both also achieved similar declines in spread and new cases despite largely reopening. So again, your assertion that everyone will become Texas and Florida has no merit. Texas and Florida are where they are because they failed to do what Germany, Italy, Australia, and New Zealand did. And seem poised to refuse to do it going forward.
And if we had controlled the spread as a country we wouldn’t be seeing these hot spots of exponential growth, that is the definition of failing to stop spread.
You keep just saying things, and as this goes on and it’s clear you haven’t actually familiarized your self with much of anything on this topic, from the raw trends and statistics of all manner of states and countries, which hasn’t stopped you from making assertions about them, or even bothered to read any of the scientific and research literature on lockdown and reopening strategies, evidenced by assuming basic assumptions that would be clear with even a summary reading are not assumed. But want to assert what we NEED to do is this absurd herd immunity strategy that based on your lack of familiarity with the strategic responses is more akin to a hot take than any sort of researched conclusion.
This post was edited on 6/20/20 at 12:44 pm
1
Posted on 6/20/20 at 12:46 pm to Bronc
quote:
And if we had controlled the spread as a country we wouldn’t be seeing these hot spots of exponential growth, that is the definition of failing to stop spread.
no. you're setting an impossible standard for a country 3000 miles wide, 1500 miles perpendicular, with 330M people, ruled by 50 semi-autonomous governments
quote:
And if we had controlled the spread as a country
impossible
but even more impossible when the WHO and China were promoting lies that led to the international spread
hell, we stopped international travel with Europe before they stopped it (and they criticized us for it)
we have a HUGE country with a lot of people spread out across the whole thing, run by 50 governments. it's not possible to stop spread
the US would be 9th in Europe in CV-19 deaths per million with the worst demographics of any country in Europe for this disease
This post was edited on 6/20/20 at 12:48 pm
Posted on 6/20/20 at 12:48 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
have you seen our economy explode since mid-April? look at the dow jones since early march
if we were scared, there wouldn't have been a surge in May when things re-opened
The Dow Jones is not the economy, it’s a stock index, and stock indexes are often out of line with economic realities. Especially as they become disconnected from larger economic trends by way of targeted Fed policies meant to juice them up. Like is happening right now. Real economic numbers are still incredibly grim and while forcing the country open will give a false sense of resurgence based on short term indicators, the long term health is still grim.
I’m not advocating dragging anything out for years. I’m for taking tough actions in the short term and reasonable guidelines after benchmarks have been met(and some states have already met them, so no need beyond reasonable social policies is needed). We already know from history that if Florida locked down tomorrow it wouldn’t need to do so for years, but maybe a couple months, and if they did like model countries could reopen without a new peak surge and history shows their long term economic outlook would improve much better than a floundering response that fails to minimize spread for an indefinite period of time. Which is where they are trending.
This post was edited on 6/20/20 at 12:50 pm
Posted on 6/20/20 at 12:50 pm to Bronc
quote:
I’m not advocating dragging anything out for years. I’m for taking tough actions in the short term and reasonable guidelines after benchmarks have been met.
as soon as we ease these restrictions, you'll see what is happening in Florida and Texas, and scream that we have to shut it down again
quote:
We already know from history that if Florida locked down tomorrow it wouldn’t need to do so for years, but maybe a couple months,
a couple of months...again
that's the whole issue. you are acting like it won't keep happening over and over and will magically not take years
you've also failed to tell me how, without a virus, we ultimately prevent all these deaths. i'm being 100% serious
Posted on 6/20/20 at 12:53 pm to SlowFlowPro
You’re comparing apples to oranges. Europe was hit first by a matter of months.
To make that comparison work you would need to wait til August to compare European numbers from June, or take current June numbers and compare to April or May.
And I would love for you to post the US case graph contrasted with the EU case graph.
To make that comparison work you would need to wait til August to compare European numbers from June, or take current June numbers and compare to April or May.
And I would love for you to post the US case graph contrasted with the EU case graph.
Posted on 6/20/20 at 1:03 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
a couple of months...again
that's the whole issue. you are acting like it won't keep happening over and over and will magically not take years
you've also failed to tell me how, without a virus, we ultimately prevent all these deaths. i'm being 100% serious
Frankly what needs to happen is instead of spitting hot takes on a message board and sea-lioning conversations, you need to spend time actually engaging the underlying research and data this conversation is built on. As so far posts like this simply demonstrate someone demanding others to fill in their ignorance.
You have floundered from ignorant topical statement to ignorant topical statement.
You make assertions without evidence(and in the face of evidence counter to those blind assertions), like everyone that opens up will become Texas and Florida(despite presented evidence deflating that assertion), that lockdowns don’t save lives when we have examples all across the globe of exactly how that is achieved. That the economic health is linked to reopening regardless of viral context, using a stock index as evidence, despite basically no economists and the historical record unequivocally disagreeing with you.
You’re essentially asking for me to work you through the basics of my understanding of epidemiological pandemic thought, economics, statistics, and all the public research and data underlying our conversation on Covid. Which tells me you aren’t really properly prepping to hold these convictions of yours to begin with, and from my perspective it’s not up to me to waste my life trying to force educate someone that to this point is only demonstrating they have no drive to do so. And that when I have attempted to engage you in that manner you have simply misrepresented it or ignored it
This post was edited on 6/20/20 at 1:05 pm
Posted on 6/20/20 at 1:08 pm to Bronc
you won't answer a simple question
how will we avoid a similar total of deaths without a vaccine? your main emotional "gotcha" is the total deaths
well how do we avoid them without a vaccine?
how will we avoid a similar total of deaths without a vaccine? your main emotional "gotcha" is the total deaths
well how do we avoid them without a vaccine?
Posted on 6/20/20 at 1:11 pm to Bronc
quote:
You’re comparing apples to oranges. Europe was hit first by a matter of months.
months? all of Europe?
Posted on 6/20/20 at 1:13 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
you won't answer a simple question
how will we avoid a similar total of deaths without a vaccine? your main emotional "gotcha" is the total deaths
well how do we avoid them without a vaccine?
How many times have I said it already? 5, 10?
Follow the CDC, Harvard, Heritage guidelines.
You reduce the peak, then as cases steadily decline you use concrete metrics to determine reopening and by way of that process you reduce total number of deaths relative to non-intervention or low intervention alternatives. Continuing certain reasonable guidelines like face masks. Therefore preventing uncontrollable spread or new exponential growth and keeping long term trends pointing down like places like Germany and Italy have done.
We have seen this work in regions and countries across the globe, in this pandemic and past ones.
This notion you continue to assert that nothing you can do barring a vaccine can stop eventually reaching non-intervention peak deaths is patently untrue.
This post was edited on 6/20/20 at 1:15 pm
Posted on 6/20/20 at 1:20 pm to Bronc
quote:
Follow the CDC, Harvard, Heritage guidelines.
You reduce the peak, then as cases steadily decline you use concrete metrics to determine reopening and by way of that process you reduce total number of deaths relative to non-intervention or low intervention alternatives. Continuing certain reasonable guidelines like face masks. Therefore preventing uncontrollable spread or new exponential growth and keeping long term trends pointing down like places like Germany and Italy have done.
that won't prevent the total number of deaths. it just expands the timeline for those deaths
quote:
We have seen this work in regions and countries across the globe, in this pandemic and past ones.
we have not seen it work in this pandemic, yet. it hasn't been enough time for this to work itself out. it will take years
quote:
This notion you continue to assert that nothing you can do barring a vaccine can stop eventually reaching non-intervention peak deaths is patently untrue.
the only way to do this is elimination
the only way we can hope for that is a vaccine
This post was edited on 6/20/20 at 1:21 pm
Posted on 6/20/20 at 1:29 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
that won't prevent the total number of deaths. it just expands the timeline for those deaths
lawyers are the fricking worst. That is simply not true. Show me any study that shows what you just said is true. Please. Posted on 6/20/20 at 1:30 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
that won't prevent the total number of deaths. it just expands the timeline for those deaths
Again, this swings us back to the whole fact you don’t know what you are talking about and admit as such by never having read any of those proposals(or apparently even a summarized version).
Flattening the curve reduces both peak and overall fatality by not spiking cases as high as they would have been, or as soon as they would have been, giving governments and healthcare providers the time to shore up treatment and capacity, and to allow a country, region, state, city to get themselves on a declining path and implement better control measures. The overall effect of which is fewer infections overall, and less dead compared to non-intervention
You are essentially arguing that had New York done nothing with the projections of a million dead, that that will ultimately still happen. There is a reason why every model we have shows what intervention and non-intervention death rates look like and why America has projections of upward of a million dead without lockdown intervention because of all the knockdown effects taking action prevents or better buffs out.
And again, yes, we have seen it work and working. I gave you several examples.
Posted on 6/20/20 at 1:33 pm to quail man
quote:
lawyers are the fricking worst. That is simply not true. Show me any study that shows what you just said is true. Please.
Well, you see, if we model the death total of the population over say, 125 years, it’s the exact same!
This post was edited on 6/20/20 at 1:35 pm
Posted on 6/21/20 at 6:55 am to Bronc
quote:
You are essentially arguing that had New York done nothing with the projections of a million dead, that that will ultimately still happen.
no NY was one of the very few areas to legitimately have a fear of critical care being overrun. i have consistently advocated for taking steps to keep CV-19 rates under that threshold
quote:
and why America has projections of upward of a million dead without lockdown intervention because of all the knockdown effects taking action prevents or better buffs out.
those projections went down b/c the early models severely overrated the fatality and spread of the disease. it was based on bad data b/c we assumed everywhere was going to be like Italy. as we got more data (primarily that a lot more people had been exposed and the severity was over-stated by our original observations), the projections dwindled. there are still some big numbers of potential deaths even with the drastically reduced (but now more in line with reality) projections. again, that's what happens in a country of 330M people. a third of 1% is still over a million. we are a huge country
quote:
And again, yes, we have seen it work and working. I gave you several examples.
not over the long term. if we restrict society, we can control the spread. based on certain variables (population, geography, population centers, etc) we can move towards elimination in some states. as we ease those restrictions, we will see spread increase.
is Germany allowing unfettered international travel in/out? they JUST eased those this week (and it's not unfettered). we won't know the data on this for another couple weeks.
look at SK, who did better than Germany initially but, as soon as they open things up to keep the economy afloat, cases spike.
LINK
quote:
South Korea has reported its largest 24-hour increase in confirmed coronavirus cases in about three weeks amid an upward trend in new infections.
quote:
The 67 cases is the largest daily increase since South Korea reported 79 cases on May 28. Officials say 31 of the new cases came from outside the country and the other 36 were locally transmitted.
LINK
quote:
Just weeks ago, South Korea was celebrating its hard-won gains against the coronavirus, easing social distancing, reopening schools and promoting a tech-driven anti-virus campaign President Moon Jae-in has called “K-quarantine.”
But a resurgence of infections in the Seoul region where half of South Korea’s 51 million people live is threatening the country’s success story and prompting health authorities to warn that action must be taken now to stop a second wave.
quote:
Despite the concerns over the spike in infections, government officials have so far resisted calls to reimpose stronger social distancing guidelines after they were relaxed in April, citing concerns over hurting a fragile economy.
Their stance seems in contrast with the urgency conveyed by health experts, including KCDC director Jung Eun-kyeong, who has warned that the country could be sleepwalking into another huge COVID-19 crisis, but this time in its most populous region.
i'll bet you $5 that we will see similar spikes in Germany and other European nations after they legitimately open up
Posted on 6/21/20 at 2:17 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
John Ioannidis, a professor of epidemiology and population health at Stanford University, argues in a paper published earlier this month that COVID-19 "seroprevalence studies," which measure infection rates using the presence of antibodies in blood samples, "typically show a much lower fatality than initially speculated in the earlier days of the pandemic."
"It should be appreciated," he writes in the paper, "that [the fatality rate] is not a fixed physical constant and it can vary substantially across locations, depending on the population structure, the case-mix of infected and deceased individuals and other, local factors."
In the paper, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, Ioannidis surveyed 23 different seroprevalence studies and found that "among people <70 years old, infection fatality rates ranged from ... 0.00-0.23% with median of 0.04%."
Posted on 6/21/20 at 2:51 pm to Bronc
quote:Oof, that's a bad look.
I’d say after scanning your post history for the last day, it’s simply a rare instance of bipartisan agreement, in that you are just a fricking moron that spends his days endorphin hunting arguments on a college football message board and don’t really have anything of substance or value to contribute.
That lack of self awareness though...
Posted on 6/21/20 at 3:00 pm to Bronc
quote:Literally!!!!
Which is crazy for someone that literally spends 24/7 on a message board.
The emotional tilt this guy is on is sad to watch.
You've proven beyond any doubt that you're way too emotional to discuss this topic rationally.
Posted on 6/21/20 at 3:48 pm to Bronc
quote:But why do you think you understand epidemiology more than actual epidemiologists?
You’re essentially asking for me to work you through the basics of my understanding of epidemiological pandemic thought
You'll say you don't but you called posters in this thread all kinds of names about how dumb they are when their opinions echoed the epidemiologists and yours ran counter to them.
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