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MFn GIMP
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re: Players’ union expects no fans at NBA games during 2020-21 season
quote:

That came out of the Friday night’s 80-player Zoom call discussing if players should head to Orlando for the NBA’s restart.

How many white players do you think were on that call?


Fun Bunch
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re: Players’ union expects no fans at NBA games during 2020-21 season
Isn't Nico Melli, of all people, the Pels player rep?


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Bronc
Member since Sep 2018
2004 posts

re: Players’ union expects no fans at NBA games during 2020-21 season
quote:

you're right. we didn't flatten the curve. we crushed the curve


It’s like trying to explain calculus to the short bus.

Some of you all are seriously some of the dumbest fricking people I have come across in my life, and I occasionally deal with middle school drop outs in my profession.

America has not flattened the curve everywhere. Full stop, end of story. Every state has not managed a CDC defined 14 days of sustained decline in cases and kept their numbers below their prior peak. Allowed themselves to institute a testing and tracing system to control future spread. Not by a fricking long shot.

And the idea that plateauing before cases rise to a new peak level that is pushing hospitalizations higher than they ever have been in many states as some victory, bastardizes what the purpose was of the lockdowns in the first place. Since if those states get over capacity, can’t sustainably reduce down spread, the goal wasn’t achieved now was it?

Again, some of you all are some of the dumbest fricking people I have met.
This post was edited on 6/20 at 1:08 am


Bronc
Member since Sep 2018
2004 posts

re: Players’ union expects no fans at NBA games during 2020-21 season
quote:

Yea, that was a rather amazing deflection on his part, he wanted no part of that post, it boxed him, and he didn't know what to do with it.


No Shel, the problem still remains you can’t fricking read....or it’s more nefarious. Which is crazy for someone that literally spends 24/7 on a message board.

I have no problem staying consistent in my critique, if you aren’t following guidelines your actions failing to do so are condemnable, regardless of the activity, your inability to comprehend that is on you. Same goes with your lack of understanding pretty much anything else in this thread
This post was edited on 6/20 at 1:32 am


Bronc
Member since Sep 2018
2004 posts

re: Players’ union expects no fans at NBA games during 2020-21 season
quote:


It's pretty funny, just knowing your audience. On the PT board, I'm a huge SJW, like you stated.

I have just as many posts as I have here on another, much much smaller message board that started in 2003 as an NCAA PS3 football league. We're a community of probably 30 right now, and there's a few pretty far left leaning dudes that mostly dominate any political commentary. On that board I'm considered a far right loon.


Like I said, it's just knowing your audience. The truth is usually in the middle of both extremes, and that couldn't be more true here, I'm right in the middle, but the far right audience thinks I'm an SJW and the far left audience think I'm one of those crazy conservative kooks. It's pretty funny.



I’d say after scanning your post history for the last day, it’s simply a rare instance of bipartisan agreement, in that you are just a fricking moron that spends his days endorphin hunting arguments on a college football message board and don’t really have anything of substance or value to contribute.


SlowFlowPro
Stanford Fan
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
373723 posts

re: Players’ union expects no fans at NBA games during 2020-21 season
quote:

America has not flattened the curve everywhere

prior to, say, mid-May, find me an area that hadn't flattened from the March spiking

there were a handful of bad areas (NY/NJ was our primary bad area) and almost everywhere else had minimal COVID impact

quote:

Every state has not managed a CDC defined 14 days of sustained decline

how is "sustained decline" being "flat"?

quote:

And the idea that plateauing before cases rise to a new peak level that is pushing hospitalizations higher than they ever have been in many states

outside of a few hot spots, American wasn't affected in a major way by COVID. that means once normal life resumed there would be lots of "peak cases" and/or hospitalizations.

quote:

bastardizes what the purpose was of the lockdowns in the first place

critical care capacity was the purpose of the lockdown

some areas are approaching that capacity, but the vast majority of the US is nowhere close. that's to be expected

quote:

Since if those states get over capacity, can’t sustainably reduce down spread, the goal wasn’t achieved now was it?

the goal WAS reached. we did crush the curve (well more than was logical, actually). but that was just to buy time to allow healthcare some slack time to catch up, hopefully develop new treatments, get more PPE, etc.

the goal was never permanent shutdown or total elimination of COVID. both are impossible standards

now, at some point after the "flatten the curve" motto, did the goalposts (and CDC standards) shift, silently? yes. you're arguing those standards as if they were the selling point for the initial shut down. much of these "spikes" are a direct result from over-suppression of spread. we need spread, and lots of it, but as controlled as possible where we can hopefully protect the at risk populations.

we need to maximize spread in the population who has almost no risk from COVID and keep that population away from at risk populations. that should be the goal. the shut down allowed some of this to happen but then the goals changed in the middle of the night and people expect the impossible (elimination).


SlowFlowPro
Stanford Fan
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
373723 posts

re: Players’ union expects no fans at NBA games during 2020-21 season
quote:

I have no problem staying consistent in my critique, if you aren’t following guidelines your actions failing to do so are condemnable, regardless of the activity, your inability to comprehend that is on you. Same goes with your lack of understanding pretty much anything else in this thread

where does racism come into play?

people are calling you out for the random racism allegation that makes no sense


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roguepelican
Member since Jan 2019
1279 posts

re: Players’ union expects no fans at NBA games during 2020-21 season
Why are stalking ppls post history? It's so weird.


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Bronc
Member since Sep 2018
2004 posts

re: Players’ union expects no fans at NBA games during 2020-21 season
Flattening is a means to an end, if you can’t achieve the end goal, the point of flattening becomes rather pointless.

The goal is to get the virus under control so that as you reopen you don’t see another peak, you don’t see exponential growth re-emerge, you don’t see hospitals risk capacity, you don’t see hospitals have to keep other aspects of healthcare shut down for fear of spread, you don’t risk secondary deaths because resources are tied up with the pandemic, so you can test and trace new clusters to ensure they don’t lead to uncontrollable spread in a community. And in that context almost no state has achieved that end goal of flattening the curve.

The CDC model didn’t change silently, they, along with other organizations like the Harvard medical research team and the Heritage foundation all looked at the information, history, and science we had and generated/revised their standards as the science became clearer. And independently they all basically came to the same conclusions. Including, that flattening the curve through social distancing policy, lockdowns, and masks is a means to end toward decreasing, controlling, and eradicating the virus. If all you are doing is plateauing the spread temporarily before you reignite exponential growth, uncontrollable community spread, and butt up against hospital capacity, you aren’t really achieving the goal(which is what is going on with many states, including the emerging hotspots in Florida, Arizona, and Texas). Now how using new information to better inform your analysis and aid in your prescription is being considered a sin by you is beyond me.

As for the Swedish model and your last paragraph, that didn’t work. And it’s utterly stupid as their experiment demonstrates. You can’t predict who will get it and many carriers don’t even realize it til they have been spreading the disease for 7-14 days. You would need to get half the population infected for it to even begin having a measurable impact and based on current trends that would mean 100’s of thousands of more people dead in just months and the healthcare system absolutely coming to the brink. And just from a logical perspective it makes no sense, treatment and capacity is continually improving, so why would you ever want to rush people getting infected when you have very effective ways to reduce spread, even to the point of near eradication as some countries have already done, when you can take proactive steps so when people do get infected, at a lower rate, over a longer horizon, treatment and capacity is stronger.
This post was edited on 6/20 at 9:58 am


SlowFlowPro
Stanford Fan
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Member since Jan 2004
373723 posts

re: Players’ union expects no fans at NBA games during 2020-21 season
quote:

Flattening is a means to an end,
\
what end?

quote:

if you can’t achieve the end goal, the point of flattening becomes rather pointless.

we did achieve it. we stopped that initial spread-panic when we didn't have enough PPE and weren't prepared for the critical care usage. only a VERY few areas in the country experienced any real stress on the system

quote:

The goal is to get the virus under control so that as you reopen you don’t see another peak, you don’t see exponential growth re-emerge, you don’t see hospitals risk capacity, you don’t see hospitals have to keep other aspects of healthcare shut down for fear of spread, you don’t risk secondary deaths because resources are tied up with the pandemic, so you can test and trace new clusters to ensure they don’t lead to uncontrollable spread in a community. And in that context almost no state has achieved that end goal of flattening the curve.

that's not flattening the curve. that's a WHOLE different set of policies

quote:

If all you are doing is plateauing the spread temporarily before you reignite exponential growth, uncontrollable community spread, and butt up against hospital capacity, you aren’t really achieving the goal

you're changing the goal and what "Flatten the curve" means to suit your argument. that's the problem



THAT is why we flattened the curve. end of story

once we got more data, got some room, and all the other things flattening the curve got us, we were much more prepared to handle the next phase, which is what YOU are talking about (while referencing flattening the curve)

quote:

As for the Swedish model and your last paragraph, that didn’t work.

Link?

when did their critical care get overrun?

and yes they will have more cases and death, but that means their population will run the course of this virus more quickly

your policy is going to take 5+ years to watch unfold, and by that time the virus will likely have mutated enough to re-infect people. oh, and we won't have an economy or society left

quote:

You would need to get half the population infected for it to even begin having a measurable impact and based on current trends that would mean 100’s of thousands of more people dead in just months

if a vaccine isn't developed within a month or 2, what option do we have? how will we avoid those deaths over a period of time?

without a vaccine, the rough same number of people will be infected and will die. the only question is the timeframe (and potential excess losses due to critical care issues)

quote:

even to the point of near eradication as some countries have already done

any time these countries re-open their economy, spread starts again

i bet you'll cite an island (or similarly-situated) example that is highly regulating international traffic as your example



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Fun Bunch
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
71493 posts
 Online 

re: Players’ union expects no fans at NBA games during 2020-21 season
quote:

Link?

when did their critical care get overrun?

and yes they will have more cases and death, but that means their population will run the course of this virus more quickly

your policy is going to take 5+ years to watch unfold, and by that time the virus will likely have mutated enough to re-infect people. oh, and we won't have an economy or society left



Yup. There death rates have started to fall a lot. They are on the downswing and it looks like kids starting to have run it’s course there.


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Bronc
Member since Sep 2018
2004 posts

re: Players’ union expects no fans at NBA games during 2020-21 season
quote:


that's not flattening the curve. that's a WHOLE different set of policies


Again, flattening the curve doesn’t exist in a vacuum, it is a means to an end. That consensus end is the set of benchmarks listed.

Your graph is illustrative of that. Implementing lockdowns and social distancing policies that slow spread to a lower peak, gain capacity for testing, tracing, and treatment, and set a path toward a steady decline toward eradication. That is NOT what is happening in many states. Instead what is happening is a plateau followed by a new surge in exponential growth. The goal has not been achieved. Saying it over and over again doesn’t change that.


quote:

and yes they will have more cases and death, but that means their population will run the course of this virus more quickly


Again, Sweden’s model has been a disaster.
2

Immunity is going incredibly slow, confidence in the economy and the government are cratering, while death rates are much, much higher than countries that took a traditional approach. So all the pain and none of the benefits.

And spread doesn’t fire up like the Florida’s and Texas’s of the world no matter what, far from it. Most countries hit their peak and never significantly trend back up because they locked down stronger and reopened more wisely, giving them the sustained and necessary drop in cases to enable the capacity to control new outbreaks, and a willingness to lock back down if things get out of control, not recklessly like much of America has done.

I mean let’s compare here:

These are through June 18th




Now let’s compare them to states that I would argue are failing to properly flatten the curve, notice the difference???
Arizona

Texas

Florida






What you see is a plateau or short term drop followed by new exponential growth patterns. That is NOT what most countries or regions are experiencing because they took more appropriate measures that not only flatten the curve sustainably but can open up without a major uptick in cases. What you see in many states is simply a slowdown before a new peak(with no indications the peak will stop growing without reintervention), which is not what countries like German and Italy are trending toward with their reopening plans.
This post was edited on 6/20 at 11:28 am


SlowFlowPro
Stanford Fan
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
373723 posts

re: Players’ union expects no fans at NBA games during 2020-21 season
quote:

Implementing lockdowns and social distancing policies that slow spread to a lower peak, gain capacity for testing, tracing, and treatment, and set a path toward a steady decline toward eradication.

eradication is not impossible and was never the (realistic) goal

quote:

That is NOT what is happening in many states. Instead what is happening is a plateau followed by a new surge in exponential growth.

as expected and planned. elimination was NEVER the strategy. we NEED COVID cases to increase but plateau below critical care levels

quote:

Immunity is going incredibly slow, confidence in the economy and the government are cratering, while death rates are much, much higher than countries that took a traditional approach.

those countries are going to face the same emotional reaction that you're displaying about the US. they'll just do it over and over and over again

quote:

And spread doesn’t fire up like the Florida’s and Texas’s of the world no matter what, far from it. Most countries hit their peak and never significantly trend back up because they locked down stronger and reopened more wisely, giving them the sustained and necessary drop in cases to enable the capacity to control new outbreaks, and a willingness to lock back down if things get out of control, not recklessly like much of America has done.

I mean let’s compare here:

you're comparing the total for countries and then looking at states that NEVER had a real infection rate

if their rate is effectively 0, any increase is going to look bad. put the maps on the same scale and compare for me

quote:

What you see in many states is simply a slowdown before a new peak

show me a comparable state to Italy, like New York

i see you completely ignored my question about what we should do assuming no vaccine is ever created


Bronc
Member since Sep 2018
2004 posts

re: Players’ union expects no fans at NBA games during 2020-21 season
Eradication as a threat was possible and is the goal, be it vaccine, herd immunity(your dumb strategy), or lockdowns and social distancing policies. But again, that is merely part of a holistic design strategy for why you flatten the curve.

And the fact you are asking me to do homework that you should have done before coming to this conversation with declarative statements says all I need to know.




New York actually looks similar to places like Italy, Germany, Spain, Australia, and New Zealand, their issue going forward will be avoiding what places like California and Texas are experiencing, which is laxing things too much, too quickly, and not having the requisite testing and tracing to control new spread.

Based on America’s weak chest for this virus, an absolute failure of federal leadership, an increasingly weak chest for state leadership(in part exacerbatted by failure of federal leadership to support state needs), I have my doubts they will succeed.

As to what we should do? Depends on the area. the federal government is failing massively in being the backbone of support and that muddies the state situation. Florida, Arizona and Texas should be pulling back to phase one or locking back down entirely, New York, New Jersey, and other states that have met the requisite 14 day sustained drop in new cases and succeeded through phase 1 should be opening up cautiously and in further phases and probably limiting flow into and out of the state, mandating social distancing and mask policies. Basically read the Harvard Medical Review, Heritage Foundation, or CDC guidelines and you have my answer. Have you bothered reading any of those?
This post was edited on 6/20 at 11:57 am


SlowFlowPro
Stanford Fan
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
373723 posts

re: Players’ union expects no fans at NBA games during 2020-21 season
quote:

Basically read the Harvard Medical Review, Heritage Foundation, or CDC guidelines and you have my answer. Have you bothered reading any of those?


Those aren't long-term strategies and they don't take the economic impact into account. All of these strategies, I believe, involve the belief that a vaccine is right around the corner. Well that would be awesome and I hope it happens quickly, it's highly unlikely that we even ever create an adequate vaccine let alone one within the next 18 months


SlowFlowPro
Stanford Fan
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Member since Jan 2004
373723 posts

re: Players’ union expects no fans at NBA games during 2020-21 season
quote:

New York actually looks similar to places like Italy, Germany, Spain, Australia, and New Zealand

Oh well, look at that. The major area of infection accounting for something like half of our total cases in a country of $330 million people, is mimicking other areas that were actually affected. And you expect areas that were never affected to maintain their effectively zero rates which is insane. Just as it will be for New Zealand as soon as they open up internationally. Just to South Korea Taiwan and other early Asian countries who face the virus found out when they opened up. We cannot control this virus. We cannot eeadicate this virus.


Bronc
Member since Sep 2018
2004 posts

re: Players’ union expects no fans at NBA games during 2020-21 season
quote:


Oh well, look at that. The major area of infection accounting for something like half of our total cases in a country of $330 million people, is mimicking other areas that were actually affected. And you expect areas that were never affected to maintain their effectively zero rates which is insane. Just as it will be for New Zealand as soon as they open up internationally. Just to South Korea Taiwan and other early Asian countries who face the virus found out when they opened up. We cannot control this virus. We cannot eeadicate this virus.


You act like examples like Australia and New Zealand dont exist. Where they prepped early based on seeing the tea leaves, locked down hard when a small outbreak and spread began, then all but eradicated it. You claim they will turn into Texas and Florida but there is no evidence of that. Same goes for regions within places like Italy, where most of the cases were up north but the south saw the writing and locked down and has never reached those levels of the northern part of the country. Which simply illustrates its entirely possible to control spread in areas not overwhelmingly affected within a country as long as you have a strong, commensurate, unified approach.

America had every oppurtunity, as did many of their states to follow that path. We failed, and now it requires stronger and more sustained measures or just residing to the fact that half a million Americans should die from a preventable situation.

Florida just broke the 4000 positive tests a day barrier, their positivity rate has gone up from around 5% to nearly 13% in the last month, which indicates it is not just more testing. What should Florida do? Solve their exponential growth problem for me.


This post was edited on 6/20 at 12:20 pm


Bronc
Member since Sep 2018
2004 posts

re: Players’ union expects no fans at NBA games during 2020-21 season
quote:

Those aren't long-term strategies and they don't take the economic impact into account. All of these strategies, I believe, involve the belief that a vaccine is right around the corner. Well that would be awesome and I hope it happens quickly, it's highly unlikely that we even ever create an adequate vaccine let alone one within the next 18 months



Nope, none of those assume that it is right around the corner.

As for the economy:


LINK

My undergrad is Econ and this continues to be one of the more toxically incorrect assertions made and built upon by people judging this virus, even in positions of power. That length of lockdowns are directly tied to economic output capacity. The sooner you lift the stronger your economy will bounce back and be, regardless of the viral situation. That is not correct.

Until confidence is fully reasserted, which won’t happen until the virus is no longer a threat, the economy can not begin to truly recover toward its prior level of growth. And the longer you drag it out the harder it will be to surge back. That is why cities and states during the 1918 flu pandemic that locked down stronger and slightly longer but better reduced the virus in their communities ultimately had stronger mid and long term economic growth than places that refused to properly lock down and minimize the spread in their communities. Those economies stayed devastated longer and rebounded slower and with less strength than the economies that locked down harder and longer initially.

This post was edited on 6/20 at 12:35 pm


SlowFlowPro
Stanford Fan
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
373723 posts

re: Players’ union expects no fans at NBA games during 2020-21 season
quote:

Australia and New Zealand

Like I said earlier, you'll use Islands

quote:

You claim they will turn into Texas and Florida but there is no evidence of that.

When they open up again fully they will

quote:

Which simply illustrates its entirely possible to control spread in areas not overwhelmingly affected within a country as long as you have a strong, commensurate, unified approach.


Since March we have controlled the spread

It's amazing how well we did considering our population and size

There will ALWAYS be acute areas popping up. That's the nature of this beast.

quote:

or just residing to the fact that half a million Americans should die from a preventable situation.

Without a vaccine, how do we prevent these deaths?


SlowFlowPro
Stanford Fan
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
373723 posts

re: Players’ union expects no fans at NBA games during 2020-21 season
quote:

Until confidence is reasserted, which won’t happen until the virus is no longer a threat, the economy can not begin truly recover.

have you seen our economy explode since mid-April? look at the dow jones since early march

if we were scared, there wouldn't have been a surge in May when things re-opened

quote:

And the longer you drag it out the harder it will be to surge back.

YOU are advocating for the policy of dragging out these draconian lockdowns for years and years

we literally cannot afford it. we have already had to borrow almost 20% of our GDP for a very short-term stop gap support. how do we have a society while we wait for 5+ years on a vaccine?


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