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Started By
Message
MJ stocks in the tank
Posted on 2/12/20 at 12:28 pm
Posted on 2/12/20 at 12:28 pm
Thinking about pulling the trigger on some MJ. What are y’all’s long-term expectations for the industry?
Posted on 2/12/20 at 12:33 pm to 3morereps
quote:
What are y’all’s long-term expectations for the industry?
A ton of consolidation
Posted on 2/12/20 at 12:48 pm to 3morereps
Very meh LT expectations. Maybe ones that specialize in weed tourism/events, or extracts/novelty uses will find a niche.
But as its legalized in more states, people are able to grow their own plants, decreasing the need/demand for the flower itself. I think serious smokers or friends in their groups will dabble in growing themselves.
But as its legalized in more states, people are able to grow their own plants, decreasing the need/demand for the flower itself. I think serious smokers or friends in their groups will dabble in growing themselves.
Posted on 2/12/20 at 12:59 pm to 3morereps
Nice Div Yield too (5.69)
Posted on 2/12/20 at 5:23 pm to 3morereps
The only one I pay attention to is Valens (VLNCF). They seem to have the best management and are expanding into drinks and more edibles. Was too busy to pay attention to news today but I should have sold due to the expected bad news by ACB. Will maybe sell first thing in the morning then buy back next week.
Posted on 2/12/20 at 6:24 pm to 3morereps
quote:
What are y’all’s long-term expectations for the industry?
That it will improve dividends on fast food stocks
Posted on 2/12/20 at 10:57 pm to 3morereps
I keep jumping in and out but the only exposure I'm comfortable with is Canopy ($CGC) or the $MJ ETF due to the wide exposure it provides.
Posted on 2/13/20 at 9:56 pm to 3morereps
It's fundamentally turned into a commodity business. The industry demand growth will continue to be explosive, but even that's being outpaced by supply growth. Growth targets just aren't realistic (not baking in enough price depreciation) and valuations are still way too high. At a firm level there doesn't appear to be any real first mover or scale advantage because offerings are fundamentally so indistinguishable.
I feel that way across the value chain. In Canada provincial governments are opening up to traditional B2C online distribution that will make the brick and mortar shops that are offerings of many of the Publics (or are Publics' customers) as silly as Best Buys.
It's not like commodity stocks can't make money but right now it's just picking horses and hoping they're the winners through the scaling and consolidation.
I feel that way across the value chain. In Canada provincial governments are opening up to traditional B2C online distribution that will make the brick and mortar shops that are offerings of many of the Publics (or are Publics' customers) as silly as Best Buys.
It's not like commodity stocks can't make money but right now it's just picking horses and hoping they're the winners through the scaling and consolidation.
Posted on 2/14/20 at 6:59 am to AMS
quote:
Very meh LT expectations. Maybe ones that specialize in weed tourism/events, or extracts/novelty uses will find a niche.
But as it's legalized in more states, people are able to grow their own plants, decreasing the need/demand for the flower itself. I think serious smokers or friends in their groups will dabble in growing themselves.
Agreed. For example, I have my medical card and use daily to help me sleep. The stuff I get from the store is so strong that I only have to go once every 4-5 months.
People who smoke all day were already smoking all day. New customers brought in via the widespread legalization are people typically like me (smoke small amounts at night, weekends, etc.)
I don't see a path forward to scale.
Posted on 2/14/20 at 7:27 am to Azazello
Cannabis up big after CGC posted a smaller loss and better revenue than expected.
Posted on 2/14/20 at 7:40 am to cuyahoga tiger
quote:
SMG...thank me later
Explain yourself
Posted on 2/14/20 at 9:18 am to TigrrrDad
quote:
My lips are sealed.
Posted on 2/14/20 at 7:42 pm to Ray Finkle
quote:
Explain yourself
SMG Scotts Miracle Grow Co. They serve the growers with their Hawthorne Garden subsidiary. Lights, hydroponics, water soluble fertilizer....legit company, leader in the home and garden category. One year ago it was selling at less than $80/share, today over $120/share.
Posted on 2/14/20 at 7:47 pm to 3morereps
Any chance Phillip Morris Jumps into the industry and destroys all the small growers?
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