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MJ stocks in the tank

Posted on 2/12/20 at 12:28 pm
Posted by 3morereps
The Gym
Member since Jun 2015
6735 posts
Posted on 2/12/20 at 12:28 pm
Thinking about pulling the trigger on some MJ. What are y’all’s long-term expectations for the industry?
Posted by stout
Smoking Crack with Hunter Biden
Member since Sep 2006
167294 posts
Posted on 2/12/20 at 12:33 pm to
quote:

What are y’all’s long-term expectations for the industry?



A ton of consolidation
Posted by AMS
Member since Apr 2016
6497 posts
Posted on 2/12/20 at 12:48 pm to
Very meh LT expectations. Maybe ones that specialize in weed tourism/events, or extracts/novelty uses will find a niche.

But as its legalized in more states, people are able to grow their own plants, decreasing the need/demand for the flower itself. I think serious smokers or friends in their groups will dabble in growing themselves.
Posted by AUGDawg
Montana
Member since Nov 2014
1912 posts
Posted on 2/12/20 at 12:59 pm to
Nice Div Yield too (5.69)
Posted by TigrrrDad
Member since Oct 2016
7119 posts
Posted on 2/12/20 at 4:56 pm to
My lips are sealed.
Posted by Lsutiger2424
Member since Dec 2016
989 posts
Posted on 2/12/20 at 5:23 pm to
The only one I pay attention to is Valens (VLNCF). They seem to have the best management and are expanding into drinks and more edibles. Was too busy to pay attention to news today but I should have sold due to the expected bad news by ACB. Will maybe sell first thing in the morning then buy back next week.
Posted by molsusports
Member since Jul 2004
36117 posts
Posted on 2/12/20 at 6:24 pm to
quote:

What are y’all’s long-term expectations for the industry?



That it will improve dividends on fast food stocks
Posted by cuyahoga tiger
NE Ohio via Tangipahoa
Member since Nov 2011
5836 posts
Posted on 2/12/20 at 6:31 pm to
SMG...thank me later
Posted by KamaCausey_LSU
Member since Apr 2013
14537 posts
Posted on 2/12/20 at 10:57 pm to
I keep jumping in and out but the only exposure I'm comfortable with is Canopy ($CGC) or the $MJ ETF due to the wide exposure it provides.
Posted by RemouladeSawce
Uranus
Member since Sep 2008
13952 posts
Posted on 2/13/20 at 9:56 pm to
It's fundamentally turned into a commodity business. The industry demand growth will continue to be explosive, but even that's being outpaced by supply growth. Growth targets just aren't realistic (not baking in enough price depreciation) and valuations are still way too high. At a firm level there doesn't appear to be any real first mover or scale advantage because offerings are fundamentally so indistinguishable.

I feel that way across the value chain. In Canada provincial governments are opening up to traditional B2C online distribution that will make the brick and mortar shops that are offerings of many of the Publics (or are Publics' customers) as silly as Best Buys.

It's not like commodity stocks can't make money but right now it's just picking horses and hoping they're the winners through the scaling and consolidation.
Posted by Azazello
Member since Sep 2011
3183 posts
Posted on 2/14/20 at 6:59 am to
quote:

Very meh LT expectations. Maybe ones that specialize in weed tourism/events, or extracts/novelty uses will find a niche.

But as it's legalized in more states, people are able to grow their own plants, decreasing the need/demand for the flower itself. I think serious smokers or friends in their groups will dabble in growing themselves.


Agreed. For example, I have my medical card and use daily to help me sleep. The stuff I get from the store is so strong that I only have to go once every 4-5 months.

People who smoke all day were already smoking all day. New customers brought in via the widespread legalization are people typically like me (smoke small amounts at night, weekends, etc.)

I don't see a path forward to scale.
Posted by LSUcam7
FL
Member since Sep 2016
7906 posts
Posted on 2/14/20 at 7:27 am to
Cannabis up big after CGC posted a smaller loss and better revenue than expected.
Posted by Ray Finkle
Collier county
Member since Sep 2007
1651 posts
Posted on 2/14/20 at 7:40 am to
quote:

SMG...thank me later


Explain yourself
Posted by Thib-a-doe Tiger
Member since Nov 2012
35401 posts
Posted on 2/14/20 at 9:18 am to
quote:

My lips are sealed.




Posted by cuyahoga tiger
NE Ohio via Tangipahoa
Member since Nov 2011
5836 posts
Posted on 2/14/20 at 7:42 pm to
quote:

Explain yourself


SMG Scotts Miracle Grow Co. They serve the growers with their Hawthorne Garden subsidiary. Lights, hydroponics, water soluble fertilizer....legit company, leader in the home and garden category. One year ago it was selling at less than $80/share, today over $120/share.
Posted by Ric Flair
Charlotte
Member since Oct 2005
13660 posts
Posted on 2/14/20 at 7:47 pm to
Any chance Phillip Morris Jumps into the industry and destroys all the small growers?
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