Natural covid immunity does not last forever.

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In this study we have inferred phylogenetic relationships among the human-infecting coronaviruses, demonstrating that a phylogenetic analysis of the ancestral and descendent states can inform our understanding of virus-specific waning of antibodies post-infection, the probability of infection at a given antibody level, and the distribution of likely times to reinfection. Our analyses show that both the waning antibody profiles and the probabilities of infection at a given antibody level are heterogeneous among human-infecting coronaviruses. Quantifying both of these parameters by ancestral and descendent states analysis enabled us to infer a timescale to likely reinfection for each coronavirus. Reinfection by SARS-CoV-2 under endemic conditions would likely occur between 3 and 63 months after peak antibody response, with a median of 16 months. This protection is of less than half the duration revealed for the endemic coronaviruses circulating among humans.

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Our estimated times to reinfection are consistent with the low numbers of validated cases of reinfection. However, our results caution that reinfection will become increasingly common as pandemic disease transitions into endemic disease. Our estimated timing of the waning of immunity can facilitate quantitative analyses of all policy decision making about individuals who have recovered from COVID-19 and who might be viewed as temporarily immune to reinfection. In particular, our estimate argues strongly against the claim that a long-standing resolution of the epidemic could arise due to herd immunity from natural infection or that mitigation of the long-term risks of morbidity and mortality can be achieved without vaccination. Relying on herd immunity without widespread vaccination jeopardizes millions of lives, entailing high rates of reinfection, morbidity, and death.

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I'm not shitting on herd immunity because it is real thing and very effective. However it does start to wane. So it is not the end all be all that some of the posters here think. So it would be a good idea for you baws and bawettes who got diagnosed with covid-19 (and actually have the lab documentation to prove it) > 3 months ago and have not gotten a vaccine to go to your doctor and get you titers checked. You might be think that you are protected and you are actually not and need a booster :gasp: However I am shitting on the posters who think we should do nothing but wait for nature to build herd immunity.


Yes I know I said something bad about natural immunity and this board thinks that vaccines are the devil so bring on the downvotes.