I’m torn on lonzo now

You trade him because he only plays when he’s about to be traded. Can’t count on his full effort year round.

He’s been on a nice run, but consistency has always been the issue with him. I’d definitely wait until closer to the deadline. If the starting 5 continues to gel the way it has lately and lonzo continues playing well, then I’d be hard pressed to move him.

You absolutely trade him while he is playing this well. He will go back to being the Lonzo we have seen the last 2 seasons soon enough.

It's a crapshoot. The safe bet is probably trade him now while his value is high. Doesn't mean he wants to leave or if we want to move him tho - who knows.

What is a player comp for Lonzo once he's reached his peak? A better version of Marcus Smart? I feel like that would be an nice piece to have but I can live without it...

quote:

---

He will go back to being the Lonzo we have seen the last 2 seasons soon enough.

---

Lonzo shot .375 from 3 last year, which included his struggles in the bubble. His shot mechanics are clearly fixed, so I highly doubt he ever goes back to shooting poorly from out there. That said, his FT shooting is still not where you want it, but if he's taking most of his attempts from deep, it won't be that big of an issue.

I think his FT issues are very similar to his bubble issue, in that it's 95% mental. If you're going to invest in him long term, they should probably get him working with a sports psychologist to clear his mind.

To me, even shooting well, there are just a lot of holes and non-complimentary aspects to his game relative to our two best players that I think if you have a good offer in place you should probably take it.

There’s also just rumblings that suggest to me he is still hellbent on chasing a glamour market and I worry about what that fosters over the course of another contract as he maneuvers himself(and likely recruits others) to chase bigger markets after his first big pay day.

Also, in regards to Lonzo’s shooting, one thing that needs to be kept in mind is the context in which it is occurring.

Only 10 of his 145 threes(and 21 of them last year), according to NBA tracking data, have come when a defender was in tight coverage(within 2-4 feet). Compare that to someone like Redick, that defenders respect as a shooter, who had to take 135 of his threes under “tight” coverage last season.

He’s hit four of those ten to his credit(33% last year), but that is a woefully inadequate sample size, and I think we have to wonder how sustainable is his shooting when defenders start deciding to go over screens, get hands in his face consistently, deny him easy looks, and not simply dare him to beat you from the arc? Which is inevitably going to happen if his shooting continues and will definitely happen in a future 7 game series.

And by now we should all be seeing how crucial that outlet shooter is for Ingram and Zion, and are you really trusting that Zo is that guy in a 7 game series? When a top ten defensive team puts a pesky defender on Zo and keeps tight coverage, when a Paul George or Kawhi Leonard is chasing him over screens, playing him tight in isolation, or closing out hard, that he is going to be the guy that will still be able to knock down outlet threes and reliably space the floor for Zion and Ingram?

I’m not convinced yet.

quote:

---

I think we have to wonder how sustainable is his shooting when defenders start deciding to go over screens, get hands in his face consistently, deny him easy looks, and not simply dare him to beat you from the arc?

---

That's EXACTLY what we want teams to do. If it gets to the point that teams are guarding him that tight at the 3 then that helps opens up the middle and makes the pick and roll game actually effective instead of a pointless dance.

That will also allow him to drive more off of picks as his guy gets too high and gives him space to get to the lane.

What you are suggesting is a bad thing is actually something we desperately need to happen

quote:

---

That's EXACTLY what we want teams to do. If it gets to the point that teams are guarding him that tight at the 3 then that helps opens up the middle and makes the pick and roll game actually effective instead of a pointless dance.

---

Well the first thing defenders are going to do more regularly is simply contest, close out, not hide bad defenders on him, and do like we do to teams and force him above the break(where he only shoots 31%). That’s not gonna do a ton different than what we see today.

We don’t even know if Lonzo is going to be able to sustain his shooting in the face of that small of an adjustment. And what little evidence we have(34% over two seasons when receiving tight coverage, 31% above the break) the early returns aren’t great.

He is also not a good pick and roll guard, not a good driving player, his floater is still non-existent, So that also becomes problematic. Since he’s simply not a three level scorer.

quote:

---

What you are suggesting is a bad thing is actually something we desperately need to happen

---

Of course if he could actually remain a threat in that capacity, but he actually has to prove it, and until he does I’m not willing to sign up for 15-20+ million to find out.