re: Post your election prediction W/ electoral college numbers

Posted by nopants

Luling, La

Member since Aug 2006

886 posts

Posted on 11/2/20 at 5:21 pm to pleading the fifth

and hoping for more red

Posted by iPadThai

Member since Oct 2011

1035 posts

Posted on 11/2/20 at 5:24 pm to Tridentds

quote:
Also think there is a reasonable chance he wins popular vote.

Good thing you are not a forecaster or in a job that requires basic understanding of probability and statistics.

Posted by iPadThai

Member since Oct 2011

1035 posts

Posted on 11/2/20 at 5:28 pm to Indefatigable

quote:
Trump 279 (Holds all 2016 states except WI and MI)
Biden 259

This is probably the most reasonable and realistic prediction of a path for Trump victory in this entire thread. People predicting Trump getting over 300+ electoral votes need to take it easy with the Trafalgar and Rassmussen polls.

2 ...

Posted by LSU9102

West of the Mississippi

Member since Mar 2007

2476 posts

Posted on 11/2/20 at 5:35 pm to iPadThai

quote:
Assuming he gets the R leans like Georgia, Florida, Ohio, Texas, Arizona, NC and Iowa.

That puts him at 260.

He could win by getting either Michigan Minnesota or Wisconsin. Pennsylvania wouldn’t matter then.

Trump will not lose in the South. I even gave them Maine and Pennsylvania.

Worse case scenario final
Trump 275
Biden 263 F

Posted by OleWar

Troy H. Middleton Library

Member since Mar 2008

5828 posts

Posted on 11/2/20 at 5:37 pm to TIGERBAIT84

Posted by Man With A Plan

Member since Nov 2019

899 posts

Posted on 11/2/20 at 5:41 pm to TIGERBAIT84

This is how I see it right now

Posted by Mbeloso

Gonzales

Member since Dec 2019

577 posts

Posted on 11/2/20 at 5:56 pm to TIGERBAIT84

Don’t really know the amount of Electoral Numbers.
But I believe that Trump wins Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Florida, and Georgia.
Biden wins the popular vote but Trump wins the Electoral College.

In 2021 we will see at least the beginning of the greatest economic growth in history. Our GDP will pass up China. (They just passed us up.)

Roe vs. Wade we’ll be overturned in the second term.
Religious Liberty will be the strongest it has ever been.
Patriotism will come back over the land for the majority of the population.

The education of America will be transformed and God will be put back in the schools.

Posted by Mbeloso

Gonzales

Member since Dec 2019

577 posts

Posted on 11/2/20 at 5:58 pm to Mbeloso

Trump wins the other typical states republicans win. Like Iowa, Tx, NC.

Posted by SportTiger1

Stonewall, LA

Member since Feb 2007

28504 posts

Posted on 11/2/20 at 6:00 pm to TIGERBAIT84

Posted by Cajunese

Louisiana

Member since Jun 2005

6973 posts

Posted on 11/2/20 at 6:02 pm to SportTiger1

Trump-290
Biden-248

Posted by GeneralLee

Member since Aug 2004

13104 posts

Posted on 11/2/20 at 6:05 pm to TIGERBAIT84

I just have a bad feeling about GA for some reason. So building in a buffer here....

Posted by ApexTiger

cary nc

Member since Oct 2003

53778 posts

Posted on 11/2/20 at 6:06 pm to Tridentds

quote:
there is a reasonable chance he wins popular vote.

it's crazy to think he wouldn't...

the democrats have a super weak ticket...

nothing but hate would carry the day for Dems...

Posted by Big Scrub TX

Member since Dec 2013

33598 posts

Posted on 11/2/20 at 6:10 pm to TIGERBAIT84

Here goes:

Turnout will be sky high - that's the thing we know with absolute certainty. I continue to maintain that it's not clear that that is a net positive for Trump this time around.

I think there are ~10 states that legit could go either way. Here's my prediction on those:

NE 2nd: Biden
NV: Biden
WI: Biden
VA: Biden
NH: Biden
MI: Biden
MN: Biden

OH: Trump
FL: Trump
IA: Trump
TX: Trump
ME 2nd: Trump

AZ: probably Trump?
NC: probably Trump?

GA and PA: too gottdamned close to say

Trump would need to win all 4 of those last 4 AND win OH, FL, TX AND IA (no exceptions.) That seems REALLY HARD to me.

WHAT TO HAVE YOUR EYES PEELED FOR TOMORROW NIGHT:

If Sleepy Joe is looking good in GA or FL, then turn out the lights, the race will essentially be over (even if it takes awhile to actually be announced.)

If Biden surprises in TX, it's over right then and there.

If Trump looks good in PA and shows strength in one of those Biden states, he might have a chance - but it will be at least a week before we know.

FINAL PREDICTION: Trump misses by just a state or two, but he missed.

2nd FINAL PREDICTION: The Senate will go whichever way the POTUS goes.

Posted by ApexTiger

cary nc

Member since Oct 2003

53778 posts

Posted on 11/2/20 at 6:11 pm to TIGERBAIT84

325 Trump, Biden 215 The Apex Map