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Take A Look at this Early return Analysis & Give me Your Thoughts
Posted on 11/2/20 at 1:31 pm
Posted on 11/2/20 at 1:31 pm
LINK
quote:
Democrats really needed to run up the score in early voting in order to overcome the large Trump leaning turn-out expected for Election Day. At this point, in 5 of the 12 Battleground States, Republicans currently lead in early returns, including in Texas, Georgia, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Short of a massive Dem turnout on Tuesday, those states all fall to Trump. Furthermore, Dems only lead by 1 point in returns in Arizona, 3 points in Nevada, 2 points in Florida, and 5 points in North Carolina. Should the DOE vote carry for Trump in those states, Trump should win those states as well. If Trump wins those states, He ends up with 284 electoral votes, and the biggest part of that is that leaves Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Minnesota on the table.
Furthermore, Dems should be terrified of the fact that in most of the states in which they lead, Democrats have burned through more of their registered voters than have the Republicans. In Pennsylvania, for instance, only 15% of Republicans have voted to date, compared to 35% of Democrats. In every state in which Republicans trail in returns, except for North Carolina, Republicans have more voters to turn out than Democrats. In North Carolina, Dems have 2 points more of their registered voters to push out to the polls while Republicans have a 1 point lead in the number of voters to turn out in Florida. In every other state in which Dems lead, Republicans have a double-digit advantage in election day voting.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 1:33 pm to Lsupimp
TrUmP cAn OnLy WiN bY ChEaTiNg
Posted on 11/2/20 at 1:34 pm to Lsupimp
Texas isn't a swing state. Trump wins TX, GA, OH, between Michigan and WI at least one of those. He'll win Arizon, FL, and NC. I don't think he wins MN or NV, not sure on NH and Pennsylvania.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 1:34 pm to Lsupimp
Thoughts:
Dems are screwed.
Dems are screwed.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 1:34 pm to fillmoregandt
Imagine the combo of running an uninspiring candidate and convincing your base that voting will kill everyone.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 1:34 pm to Lsupimp
312 EC votes for Trump. That's my prediction
Posted on 11/2/20 at 1:34 pm to Lsupimp
And that's assuming every Dem voted Biden. We of course know that may not be the case.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 1:35 pm to Lsupimp
If all that is true - I b happy
Posted on 11/2/20 at 1:35 pm to Lsupimp
It looks like I may sleep pretty well tomorrow evening... Starting as early as 10:30p or so.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 1:35 pm to Bandit1980
Trump in a landslide baws, 323 here
I think he gets Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, and Michigan, but loses Minnesota.
I think he gets Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, and Michigan, but loses Minnesota.
This post was edited on 11/2/20 at 1:38 pm
Posted on 11/2/20 at 1:35 pm to Lsupimp
god i hope this is right.
ive been pretty confident, but im getting a bit Scruffy-like
ive been pretty confident, but im getting a bit Scruffy-like
Posted on 11/2/20 at 1:39 pm to Lsupimp
Dems needed a 700,000+ lead by Election Day to even have a shot at breaking even. Looks like they are only a little over 100K. Too bad.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 1:40 pm to Lsupimp
My thoughts have always been that Republicans will equal or surpass their normal election day turnout whereas Democrats will be historically low due to Covid.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 1:40 pm to Lsupimp
quote:
Michigan, and Wisconsin.
One (or both) of these and it doesn’t matter what PA does.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 1:41 pm to Lsupimp
Mays Gilliam is going to win.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 1:42 pm to Lsupimp
quote:
3 points in Nevada
Jon Ralston has all but called Nevada for Biden and he is as good as gold there. I'd love for Trump to win here but if Ralston is saying Trump won't win he almost certainly won't.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 1:43 pm to windshieldman
quote:Isn't Pennsylvania irrelevant in that case?
Texas isn't a swing state. Trump wins TX, GA, OH, between Michigan and WI at least one of those. He'll win Arizon, FL, and NC. I don't think he wins MN or NV, not sure on NH and Pennsylvania.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 1:43 pm to Lsupimp
Feels good man and it also doesn’t likely account for proper cross over numbers and the independent vote. Despite what polls say all signs point to trump land slide
Posted on 11/2/20 at 1:45 pm to Epic Cajun
quote:
Isn't Pennsylvania irrelevant in that case?
Correct
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