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Started By
Message
New Trafalgar Polls: Trump +4.8% in OH, +2.5% in MI
Posted on 11/2/20 at 5:36 am
Posted on 11/2/20 at 5:36 am
Ohio
MOE: 2.96%
Michigan
MOE: 2.97%
Still a good chunk of "undecideds". Additionally, Trafalgar has had recent polls showing Trump up in NC, AZ, FL, and PA. Down in MN, WI, and NV.
https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/
Trafalgar chief pollster calling out 538
Trafalgar’s Robert Cahaly on Maria Bartiromo’s Sunday Futures FoxNews show talks pre-election day
MOE: 2.96%
Michigan
MOE: 2.97%
Still a good chunk of "undecideds". Additionally, Trafalgar has had recent polls showing Trump up in NC, AZ, FL, and PA. Down in MN, WI, and NV.
https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/
Trafalgar chief pollster calling out 538
Trafalgar’s Robert Cahaly on Maria Bartiromo’s Sunday Futures FoxNews show talks pre-election day
This post was edited on 11/2/20 at 9:07 am
14
Posted on 11/2/20 at 5:37 am to gatorsimz
Actually thats a very conservative prediction. The lead is actually more.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 5:39 am to gatorsimz
Do you know how accurate they were in 2016?
Posted on 11/2/20 at 5:40 am to gatorsimz
quote:
"undecideds".
Dana Perino - "stats show undecideds tend to vote for the incumbent the closer you get to election day."
Posted on 11/2/20 at 5:42 am to gatorsimz
Lots of recent polls have been showing undecideds breaking to TRUMP.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 5:44 am to gatorsimz
Someone is going to look like a dumb arse late tomorrow night. It’s either going to be Trafalgar or Nate Silver. I hope it’s the latter.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 5:44 am to msudawg1200
quote:
Do you know how accurate they were in 2016?
Dead on nuts
Posted on 11/2/20 at 6:01 am to msudawg1200
quote:
Do you know how accurate they were in 2016?
From their website:
quote:
We were named the best polling firm of 2016 presidential race, and this year, Real Clear Politics called us “the most accurate pollster of the cycle among those firms that polled multiple Senate and governor races.”
Posted on 11/2/20 at 6:18 am to gatorsimz
That Ohio number isn't great.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 6:26 am to RollTide1987
quote:
Someone is going to look like a dumb arse late tomorrow night. It’s either going to be Trafalgar or Nate Silver.
Nate Silver isn't a polster, he just crunches numbers from polls and comes off as a douche on twitter.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 6:28 am to gatorsimz
I hope for Trafalgar’s sake they are accurate with these 
They’re finished if the MSM polls are anywhere close to being right.
They’re finished if the MSM polls are anywhere close to being right. 
Posted on 11/2/20 at 6:28 am to Ssubba
(no message)
This post was edited on 1/10/21 at 11:17 pm
Posted on 11/2/20 at 6:29 am to Homesick Tiger
quote:
Dana Perino - "stats show undecideds tend to vote for the incumbent the closer you get to election day."
You’ll get another analyst on TV to say the opposite, that undecideds break away from the incumbent. Both statements are completely unsupportable and should be ignored.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 6:31 am to Indefatigable
quote:How did Trafalgar do in 2016??
New Trafalgar Polls
Posted on 11/2/20 at 6:32 am to tigerpawl
(no message)
This post was edited on 1/10/21 at 11:17 pm
Posted on 11/2/20 at 6:57 am to Scruffy
Does this put Scruffy at ease?
Posted on 11/2/20 at 6:58 am to gatorsimz
We love based Robert 
Posted on 11/2/20 at 6:58 am to Rebel
(no message)
This post was edited on 1/10/21 at 11:03 pm
Posted on 11/2/20 at 7:07 am to Indefatigable
quote:
Both statements are completely unsupportable and should be ignored.
Well if you want to go that route then anything not fact based should be ignored. This would be a dead arse place if that were the case.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 7:13 am to RollTide1987
quote:
Someone is going to look like a dumb arse late tomorrow night. It’s either going to be Trafalgar or Nate Silver. I hope it’s the latter.
The difference is the Trafalgar guy's reputation is on the line. The media will still worship Nate Silver if Trump wins.
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