About that CNN poll

I dig into the trend lines so you don't have to.

These polls are correct, but if you look at the trend lines, you see why. They know that no one besides geeks like me look at the trend lines, so they go with the headlines.

If an SRSS poll (the group that conducts polls for CNN) has it 50-46 Biden and 49-48 in Battleground states, Trump should start considering if he wants to keep the same curtains or change them.

When you dig, here is what you find.

Landline respondents: 386
Cell phone respondents: 722

Design effect is 1.62.

499 respondents said they were voting for Biden with 92% saying they would not change.

452 respondents said they were voting for Trump with 87% saying they would not change.

But 58% of the Biden respondents said they weren't voting for Biden, they were voting against Trump.

Only 29% of the Trump respondents said they were voting against Biden.

Traditionally, campaigns only count on around 55% of these folks to actually cast a ballot. In 2012, only 18% of Obama respondents said they were voting against Romney and 38% of Romney respondents said they were voting against Obama. And we know how that came out!

In 2004, 55% of Kerry voters said that their vote was against Bush, not for Kerry.

This is going to be a blood bath if these trends keep up.

Also of note, 2 percent of the respondents have never heard of Biden. 10% had never heard of Kamala. 91% of them said they would vote against Trump. You think those people are going to show up on Election Day? Please.

ETA!!! More great stuff

1 out of 7 people said the coronavirus isn't that important. Less than 1% said the economy isn't that important! Voters saying Immigration is more important than they did in 2016 - and that's what won Trump the election.

1 out of 3 said climate change isn't important at all. The only thing negative for Trump I have found is 39% think Supreme Court nominations are important, down from 49% in 2016.

Would you say you are extremely enthusiastic about voting for your candidate in 2020?

53% YES for Trump
26% in October, 2016.


31% of Dems think Kamala was a POOR choice.

15% thought that of Tim Kaine
26% of Sarah Palin
7% of Liberman in 2000.

16% of them said they were less likely to vote for Biden because of Harris.

8% Kaine
20% Palin (this killed McCain chances)
4% Lieberman

38% say Kamala is not qualified to be president. Only Palin at 56% and 1992 Dan Quayle at 62% were higher. Both losers. The highest winner was Biden at 19%.

AND THE BEST FOR LAST:

33% of People of Color responded that they would be voting for Trump.
87% of them said they would not change their mind.
landslide.