re: Diving deeper on Standard Lithium?

Any Doomberg substack subscribers out there? Their most recent piece is about Lithium/DLE industry. Link to Article

Some Excerpts:

"Public and private money is flooding into the field of direct lithium extraction (DLE), and like all investment bubbles, separating the potential winners from the hucksters can be challenging. What are investors to make of this unfolding mania? Are breakthroughs truly on the horizon? If so, who will likely be the main beneficiaries? Let’s develop a framework of analysis together."

"When a field explodes in popularity like this, it is natural that investors fear missing out on the next big thing, and there is no shortage of entrepreneurs looking to raise capital in the DLE space. A recent article by Reuters gives a comprehensive list of companies participating in the race to produce lithium. From startups to established players, there are more than two dozen options to consider in the burgeoning catalog. One needs a method for sifting through and prioritizing the myriad opportunities."

"Our pessimism arises from a fundamental truism of mining technology breakthroughs: embedded within their very business plans are the seeds of their economic demise. The more successful the technology, the quicker the commodity glut forms, and all commodity producers are nothing more than price takers with elevated fixed costs. The development of horizontal drilling, and the shale boom that followed, incinerated copious amounts of industry capital. This should serve as a sobering and relevant historical precedent.
More interesting to us would be the pinch points. In this context, the developers of the enabling technologies—the filters, membranes, and other consumables that allow lithium to be processed—ought to capture most of the value generated. Since promoters will depend on these inventions to demonstrate growth, they will be relatively price agnostic in their quest to acquire them. Continuing with our shale analogy, providers of the accessory services and materials that enabled horizontal drilling to succeed in the field faired far better across the entirety of the boom-bust cycle."

I'd post more but don't want to just regurgitate the whole article. Figured it was relevant to post regardless. I'm not very knowledgeable in this industry whatsoever so won't provide any personal commentary but hopefully this has some utility. And FWIW I've enjoyed the Doomberg subscription if anyone cares. Their analysis on commodities, industry, policy, etc. is thought provoking

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A recent article by Reuters

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Compass Minerals International (CMP.N):

The company, whose largest shareholder is Koch Industries, licensed EnergySource's DLE technology to filter lithium from Utah's Great Salt Lake starting in 2025 for Ford and LG Energy (373220.KS).

Standard Lithium (SLI.V):

Standard plans to filter lithium from the brine wastewater of a Lanxess (LXSG.DE) bromine facility in Arkansas. That wastewater is currently reinjected into the Smackover Formation, which stretches from Florida to Texas. Standard, which counts Koch as its largest shareholder, has not said when it could reach commercial production.

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So what I’m taking from this is Schwab is screwing me out of some interest!

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I'm at 20% as well.


So isnt this a sign that these guys are really banking on bad news for SLI?

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Thats what it looks like. There are also lots of pro-SLI as well though. All of the institutional investors and of course all of the Money Board.

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Exxon Agrees to develop more than 6,100 lithium-rich acres in Arkansas with Tetra Technologies Inc

Noteworthy quote

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Exxon would need to chose at least one direct lithium extraction (DLE) technology to filter the metal from the Arkansas brine, although such technologies are largely unproven at commercial scale. Reuters reported earlier this month that

Exxon has held talks with International Battery Metals (IBAT.CD) and EnergySource Minerals about licensing DLE technology. Tetra said in November it has been investigating various DLE technologies, but had not signed any agreements.

Tetra had previously agreed to lease more than 27,000 acres in Arkansas to Standard Lithium (SLI.V) to produce lithium. Standard has started preliminary work on development of that project.

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An agreement with @XOM would balloon this stock. It basically validates the technology

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It moved...

It is very difficult to confirm who a company like exxon has been talking to. This stuff has all sorts of project code names and serious lawyers all over it

Saw someone bought 26,000 shares this morning. and quite a few 2-3,000 buys.

I seem to have forgotten where I can look at the quantitative purchases.

Point me in a direction?