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Where did the 60K death estimate come from?
Posted on 4/24/20 at 8:27 am
Posted on 4/24/20 at 8:27 am
No chance of us coming in under that number at this point
Posted on 4/24/20 at 8:29 am to Wtodd
Did Fauci mention this number a couple weeks ago in one of the press conferences?
Posted on 4/24/20 at 8:30 am to Powerman
Trump has now stated that number, so it won’t be. It’ll be 150,000 before it’s all said and done, and it will be OMB fault.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 8:31 am to Powerman
The IMHE model that started at 2.2 million, then 200K, then 80K, then 60K.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 8:31 am to Powerman
Trump said at a briefing that he was hoping for 60K.
The latest estimated death count, which I heard Birx say at a briefing about a week ago, was 100K. Then Trump followed her and said that he personally was hoping it wouldn’t be more than 60K. “I don’t know but I’m hoping it won’t be more than 60K. One is too many.”
The latest estimated death count, which I heard Birx say at a briefing about a week ago, was 100K. Then Trump followed her and said that he personally was hoping it wouldn’t be more than 60K. “I don’t know but I’m hoping it won’t be more than 60K. One is too many.”
Posted on 4/24/20 at 8:32 am to Powerman
quote:
No chance of us coming in under that number at this point
The revised model after assessing the initial effects of social distancing.
Of course, that was also before the whole "death from COVID" got changed to "death with COVID" controversy, although I think the padding there might be a little overblown - I doubt much past 10% or so.
I think the new number is ~70k to 75k for this initial phase, and under 100k by the end of August/September.
That would put us a little under the low estimate of full mitigation.
This post was edited on 4/24/20 at 8:33 am
Posted on 4/24/20 at 8:33 am to Ace Midnight
quote:
I think the new number is ~70k to 75k for this initial phase, and under 100k by the end of August/September.
That would put us a little under the low estimate of full mitigation.
Thanks for the clarification
That seems more believable
Posted on 4/24/20 at 8:35 am to Powerman
Toss out NYC & NJ and the number is very feasible.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 8:36 am to TerryDawg03
quote:
Toss out NYC & NJ and the number is very feasible.
Well sure, but it would also be a false number. I'm well aware that they make up a huge chunk of the deaths.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 8:38 am to Powerman
What's amazing is total deaths from all causes is down 10%. It would seem that we have discovered a cure for: cancer, heart disease, dementia, ALS, traffic fatalities and really all other forms of death.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 8:39 am to Ace Midnight
With these numbers, maybe we should shut down the country every year during Flu season.
Had a friend die two weeks ago, had Lukemia for over two years, you guessed it , he died of Covid19.
If you take out Heart attacks, Strokes, and Cancer deaths. These numbers would be much lower.
Had a friend die two weeks ago, had Lukemia for over two years, you guessed it , he died of Covid19.
If you take out Heart attacks, Strokes, and Cancer deaths. These numbers would be much lower.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 8:39 am to Powerman
quote:
I'm well aware that they make up a huge chunk of the deaths.
Yeah about 1/3 which is mind boggling
Posted on 4/24/20 at 8:43 am to Ace Midnight
quote:
Of course, that was also before the whole "death from COVID" got changed to "death with COVID" controversy, although I think the padding there might be a little overblown - I doubt much past 10% or so.
Could be 50% or more "with COVID". Blatant politics. Some docs don't care, and some are furious about the CDC using the docs to cook the books.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 8:43 am to Powerman
quote:Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Where did the 60K death estimate come from?
Posted on 4/24/20 at 8:45 am to Tony Tiger89
quote:
With these numbers, maybe we should shut down the country every year during Flu season. Had a friend die two weeks ago, had Lukemia for over two years, you guessed it , he died of Covid19. If you take out Heart attacks, Strokes, and Cancer deaths. These numbers would be much lower.
My wife's grandmother passed this morning. She was almost 91 and had pancreatic cancer that had spread everywhere. We haven't had a Covid death in our county. I'm interested to see if she's counted as one. If so, all these numbers are bullshite.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 8:47 am to Lsut81
quote:
Yeah about 1/3 which is mind boggling
More like 1/2
Posted on 4/24/20 at 8:51 am to msudawg1200
quote:
My wife's grandmother passed this morning. She was almost 91 and had pancreatic cancer that had spread everywhere. We haven't had a Covid death in our county. I'm interested to see if she's counted as one. If so, all these numbers are bullshite.
Yea, it's amazing that elderly people with a normal death rate of over 12% are dying from a virus with a death rate of about 5% if you don't count all the anti-body testing extrapolated to the general population. People over 65 makeup roughly 80% of the Covid-19 deaths. Only 3 children have died so far from the Coronavirus. Meanwhile over 1800 children died from the Swine Flue aka H1V1 in 2009.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 8:52 am to Buckeye Jeaux
quote:
Could be 50% or more "with COVID".
And bigfoot could exist.
There is no doubt co-mingling of the numbers but no sane person would claim 50%.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 8:54 am to msudawg1200
There are numerous stories, about the cause of deaths in many situations, every death is Covid19, it makes much more $$$$$$ for the hospitals.
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