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re: #1 problem with this team IMO

Posted on 3/7/20 at 10:34 am to
Posted by Bronc
Member since Sep 2018
12646 posts
Posted on 3/7/20 at 10:34 am to
I also just want to point out how ridiculous you are being:

Me:
quote:

You understand being smart with ball movement and rotations can help mitigate individual streakiness right? Many of our individual shooters are fairly streaky, as a team less so. I’m honestly fine with where our 3 point shooting is at overall because of our overall execution, hence my argument that getting a rim protecting stretch 5 is a bigger need than more perimeter position shooters.


You:
quote:

No, that sounds completely made up


Me:
quote:

It’s called synergy


You:

quote:

The Pels have a lot of average to good 3pt shooters with one elite guy (Redick) and one guy getting there (Ingram).


quote:

They are a good 3pt shooting team, which is a shock given what we thought in October.


So what bridges that gap and gets a collection of mostly average to slightly good guys that started poorly into this:

You:
quote:

They are one of the best 3pt shooting teams in the league


Part of your own answer:

You:
quote:

They have a system that generates good looks


What do we call the outcome of utilizing the right players and coaches working together to generate good looks for the right players and the team as a whole? Synergy!

You got it, you agree with me, yet you just want to keep arguing.
This post was edited on 3/7/20 at 10:49 am
Posted by corndeaux
Member since Sep 2009
9634 posts
Posted on 3/7/20 at 10:39 am to
quote:

There is a reason Jrue has only taken more than 6 threes when he isn’t shooting well like once or twice this season, all other times it is because he is hitting.


He has 15 games with more than 6 3s. Depending on where you draw the line on hitting them, 5 of those were poor performance < 34%

13 games with 6 3PA. 6 of those < 34%.

13 games at 5 3PA. 6g < 34%

11 games 4 or less 3PA. 10 of those games < 34%.

Is there something there? Maybe. Maybe not. In 5 of those 4 or less 3PA, if he hits his next one it, then he is a good shooter. Sample size.

If anything, breaking down his 3PA based on performance suggests he should always shoot > 6 3s. I doubt anyone wants to go that route because he is a career 35% 3P shooter

quote:

have a team of one elite shooter off the bench, and then a bunch of average to good shooters, so how does that turn into an elite near league-leading unit


Because they have more good shooters than most of the league?

quote:

But we do as good as anyone optimizing all aspects of offensive strategy to generate that sort of elite synergy.


Pels are 14th in generating wide open 3s, according to NBA.com. Which is good, but hardly accounts for limiting player "streakiness" on a night to night basis. It's not a buffet of wide open 3s. They do convert them at the 3rd best rate.

If you have more a detailed data to share on who takes those 3s night to night, please do so

quote:

not just telling everyone to chuck it like you think.


"Green light" does not mean chuck. Fascinating that you made that leap.



quote:

become a chore to talk to because you refuse to engage honestly with anyone you find disagreements with.


frick off with that noise. You can't have it both ways. You want to condescend when people push you to explain, you'll get it right back.

You want to actually dig in and discuss basketball. Great when people ask questions, answer them.
Posted by NOSHAU
Member since Feb 2012
12139 posts
Posted on 3/7/20 at 10:44 am to
quote:

Etwaun is trash, Hart is streaky, Lonzo is finally hitting open 3s consistently. Jrue is streaky. How is that hard to comprehend?


Is there a recorded stat for uncontested 3 pt shoot percentage?
Does consistent mean shooting 45% from 3? BI is shooting 39% on 6.4 shots a game, Jrue 36% on 6 shots a game, Ball 38% on 6.5 shots a game, Moore 37.3% on 3.2 shots per game. Melli 36.4% on 3.5 shots a game, Hart 35 % on 5.7 shots a game. How do you define consistent?
Posted by corndeaux
Member since Sep 2009
9634 posts
Posted on 3/7/20 at 10:46 am to
I'm flattered that you are copying my posting style.


You still haven't really shown how the Pels are streaky as individuals, but not as a team.
Posted by Bronc
Member since Sep 2018
12646 posts
Posted on 3/7/20 at 10:56 am to
I already walked through two of the players in question for you, I’m more curious how you can manage to talk out so many sides and think it is everyone else that is in need of additional clarification at this point?

You start off claiming the team shot poorly to start the season, that the team is made up of mostly average to slightly good three point shooters and one elite guy, then follow it up that despite that we are now an elite shooting team on the season. Which is correct. That bridge doesn’t just get built by magic though. And when I offered the tools that built the bridge you got triggered despite ultimately conceding exactly what I said initially.

....Yet you still persist in arguing. What and to what end at this point seems just to be to find some small victory in a fight that wasn’t necessary to begin with.

This post was edited on 3/7/20 at 10:58 am
Posted by BengalShark
Member since Jul 2017
3243 posts
Posted on 3/7/20 at 11:19 am to
The biggest problem IMO is defense. This team can put up points but defensively we haven’t lived up to what we really could be. Also we need to close out games better, last night vs the Heat had me sweatin with how Miami came back. Thankfully we pulled it out though and still are in the playoff hunt!
Posted by WicKed WayZ
Louisiana Forever
Member since Sep 2011
31708 posts
Posted on 3/7/20 at 2:26 pm to
quote:

Ingram, JJ, Etwaun, Melli, Josh Hart, and hell even Lonzo sometimes, are all good outside shooters.



Not lately. The only ones capable of hitting shots lately are Lonzo and BI. JJ is hurt and up until yesterday, Hart has been ice cold, Moore and Melli just aren’t good shooters. Lonzo isn’t even that great of a shooter. He’s on a hot streak right now. He’s average, but I think he can be really really good from 3 one day
Posted by FMtTXtiger
Member since Oct 2018
3807 posts
Posted on 3/7/20 at 8:59 pm to
When Zion learns to pass out of the double and not trip over himself we will be fine.

Forces the situation too much
Posted by corndeaux
Member since Sep 2009
9634 posts
Posted on 3/8/20 at 9:05 am to
quote:

You start off claiming the team shot poorly to start the season


I said we all thought they would struggle shooting at the start of the year. That was the biggest presumed weakness heading into the season. They haven't. We were all wrong. Is that because of the system? Likely. Because of player growth/coaching as shooters? Almost certainly.

quote:

And when I offered the tools that built the bridge.


You presented a theory on synergy. There is merit to this idea for how they play offense overall. The Pels have had plenty of nights, especially recently, where they play gorgeous team basketball and the ball finds the open man in rhythm. It is the principle of Gentry's offense- the ball has energy; keep the energy moving.

The part I question is that the team is using synergy to find the hot hand/go away from the cold one so that a team of "streaky" shooters can become one of the best from 3 in the league over the course of 63 games.

You pointed to Moore, a 37% shooter this year on limited minutes, then roughly 6 games of Jrue Holiday + a claim about his performance on large 3PA. I detailed Holiday's 3P performance this season looking see what you see. I didn't get there.

I also looked at Lonzo, who has taken more 3s than anyone else on the team.

15 games w/ > 6 3PA and < 34% vs 12 w/ > 6 3PA and > 34%

10 with 5 or 6 3PA and < 34% vs 7 w/5 or 6 3PA and > 34%

I'm happy to be corrected on these stats. Or for anyone to dig deeper and show me something I'm missing.

quote:

What and to what end at this point


I am legit trying to understand what data you and others are using to claim 3P "streakiness" + an offense ignoring the cold hand because I'm genuinely curious.

Truly, I'd love to be convinced that Alvin Gentry has created a system and instilled in his players a method to consistently ignore the guy who is off on any given night so the team can maintain league leading levels of 3pt production.
Posted by kellyboy23
Member since Dec 2019
301 posts
Posted on 3/8/20 at 9:10 am to
A problem that I noticed with the Pels would be a lack of communication and effort on Defense.
Posted by Bronc
Member since Sep 2018
12646 posts
Posted on 3/8/20 at 9:45 am to
I said we do a great job finding the right players, in the right spots, on the right nights, using a now complimentary rotation, which clearly we do, and you concede, I never once said they have some magical way of completely and totally eliminating taking the ball out of cold shooters hands on every shot, you injected that straw man into the argument to try and find some area of easy contention you could push back on to keep the argument going. Even after I corrected you on what I meant you persist in that framing. It’s like physically impossible for you to engage others with a modicum of intellectual honesty. You make wild assumptions and take most bad faith interpretations and then simply project them onto the other person and get worked up over it.


In terms of streakiness I already walked you through it with two players, Jrue and Moore. I already posted Lonzo’s season splits in another thread. Which at this point is less game to game and more first half of the season vs the second half. To the point you could probably take him out of that number. Hart gets away with chucking more than you’d like, but he is clearly streaky as well.

But here’s the rub, every time I point the question right back at you, how does a team of average to slightly good shooters end up almost leading the league in three point efficiency? You only have the same answer I have, the answer you initially claimed was made up. It’s how a team that’s collective individual average of primary three point shooters is only around 36%, but can manage to hit a near league leading 37.3% on the season. Where the best in the league is only 1 percent higher on fewer shots. You do things like get the one elite guy almost as many good shots from three as the guys playing 400 more minutes than him on the season. As a player you have enough recognition, like Jrue, to only take 8 or mores shots from three on the nights you are mostly shooting it well. Not every night, not every game, not every shot, just so you don’t fly off the fricking handle again with wild assumptions, but as a whole you play a brand of offensive basketball from the coaching, rotation, lineup, and in-game play to maximize the right looks for the right players on the right nights better than most other teams.
This post was edited on 3/8/20 at 9:56 am
Posted by LSUtigerfan26
Member since Aug 2018
177 posts
Posted on 3/8/20 at 11:26 am to
This is why my favorite pairing with zion is Melli. He spaces the floor and allows zion to get more one on ones in the lane and allows him to use the entire lane to go to work
Posted by CelticDog
Member since Apr 2015
42867 posts
Posted on 3/8/20 at 6:18 pm to
quote:

Someone that gives you Favors rim protection but pulls a big away from the rim so Zion can feast.





and makes ft's at .78 or better.

Posted by Soggymoss
Member since Aug 2018
14710 posts
Posted on 3/8/20 at 6:25 pm to
And who's name rhymes with Lyles Burner
Posted by corndeaux
Member since Sep 2009
9634 posts
Posted on 3/9/20 at 10:08 pm to
quote:

I said we do a great job finding the right players, in the right spots, on the right nights, using a now complementary rotation, which clearly we do, and you concede


??? My last post literally questioned the bolded parts and asked you to show how the Pels clearly do that.

quote:

It’s how a team that’s collective individual average of primary three point shooters is only around 36%


The 19/20 top 5 Pels 3pt shooters are hitting 3s collectively at 38.5% this season. They have taken roughly 70% of all the threes on the season for the Pels.

2 of them are at their mediocre career %. One is above his elite %. The other two are true outliers and complete shocks.

There are 21 players in the league that average > 6 3PA/G and hit them over 38% in > 40 games. The Pels have 3 of them. Only one other team has two (PDX). The three Pels are Redick, Ingram, and Ball. There have been 56 guys in league history who have met that threshold

Is that synergy and rotations finding their hot hands or a product of two guys fixing their shots and then working their asses off to improve them all year long?


quote:

how does a team of average to slightly good shooters end up almost leading the league in three point efficiency? You only have the same answer I have,


Hardly. It's really much more simple than your theory on streakiness and synergy. Last year, same coaches + same offense generated the same amount of wide open 3PA per game, 16. They hit them at 34%. This year it's 40%. Shot selection and ball movement only get you so far unless you've got the shooters to nail the shots.

The Pels make it work because they have more quality 3pt shooters than most teams, which no one would have guessed in October, and that has been proven over 63 games thus far.
Posted by corndeaux
Member since Sep 2009
9634 posts
Posted on 3/9/20 at 10:12 pm to
What's funny about Ball and Ingram is that their performances from 3 may just be one offs. They could be career highs they never reach again.

Sample size is real and these things need to be looked at from all sorts of perspectives. Game to game is always going to be high variance. Hell, even the wide open 3s stat. We're talking about 1000 shots. 25 just happen to rim out (or ~ 1 every 3 games so far) and they're down to 37.5%. Margins are thin.

Ball and Ingram are still so young and have made such clear improvements to their mechanics, that this looks to be more permanent. Or they could go back to mid-low 30s%. :shrug: we'll have to wait and see
This post was edited on 3/9/20 at 10:16 pm
Posted by SirWinston
PNW
Member since Jul 2014
83194 posts
Posted on 3/10/20 at 2:24 am to
Yah I agree with Macintosh504 - our shooters aren’t consistent and it bites us too often
Posted by New City Champ
Member since Jul 2018
459 posts
Posted on 3/10/20 at 2:48 am to
Holiday we know is a slightly below League average 3 point shooter for his career which is not ideal in the guy who plays shooting guard most of the time. Obviously he has many positive attributes as a player that help offset that shortcoming but still it’s a legitimate consideration going forward. Fortunately, both Ball and Ingram have substantially upgraded their 3 point shots this year which has helped make up for Jrue’s limitations as an outside shooter. But you can still wonder what would the Pels offense look like with an elite shooter at shooting guard, say a younger bigger version of Redick.

A more pressing issue that gets overlooked is whether it is really plausible to go forward with a starting backcourt where both guards shoot under 70% from the line and don’t get there very much to begin with. I think you can make the playoffs with that handicap, but I’ve got real concerns whether you can be a contender.
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