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re: #1 problem with this team IMO
Posted on 3/6/20 at 9:11 pm to corndeaux
Posted on 3/6/20 at 9:11 pm to corndeaux
What? How is that hard to get?
We tend to play relatively smart offensive basketball when it comes to shot selection. Moore is not a consistent shooter every game, but as a team when he is hitting we tend to feed it, when he’s not we go elsewhere. Do that around the rotation and that is how the sum becomes greater than the individual parts, or what some might call “synergy.”
It’s also why guys like Frank stick out and frustrate, because they force the issue way too much in ways that don’t contribute to synergistic basketball.
We tend to play relatively smart offensive basketball when it comes to shot selection. Moore is not a consistent shooter every game, but as a team when he is hitting we tend to feed it, when he’s not we go elsewhere. Do that around the rotation and that is how the sum becomes greater than the individual parts, or what some might call “synergy.”
It’s also why guys like Frank stick out and frustrate, because they force the issue way too much in ways that don’t contribute to synergistic basketball.
This post was edited on 3/6/20 at 9:18 pm
2
Posted on 3/6/20 at 9:34 pm to Bronc
Classic Bronc post.
You say something completely nuts. Then act like anyone who disagrees is dumb.
You really don't understand sample size and average. Ok. Have a good night pal.
You say something completely nuts. Then act like anyone who disagrees is dumb.
quote:
Moore is not a consistent shooter every game
You really don't understand sample size and average. Ok. Have a good night pal.
Posted on 3/6/20 at 9:45 pm to corndeaux
I’m sorry the concept of synergy was foreign to you until tonight, but most people grasp the concept and how it works.
Posted on 3/6/20 at 11:27 pm to Bronc
quote:
Moore is not a consistent shooter every game, but as a team when he is hitting we tend to feed it, when he’s not we go elsewhere
I’m not trying to be confrontational but is there any evidence supporting this claim?
I’m asking because I tend to agree with the sentiment from an observational standpoint. With that said, it does seem like your conclusion defeats your own argument.
Posted on 3/6/20 at 11:37 pm to southdowns84
I think the pace gives us more open threes than most teams.
Then at the end of the game when the pace is slowed, we can’t hit shite.
Then at the end of the game when the pace is slowed, we can’t hit shite.
Posted on 3/6/20 at 11:51 pm to ulsaint
quote:and unfortunately when we are done with the quick pace offense, we resort to iso ball.
Then at the end of the game when the pace is slowed, we can’t hit shite.
Posted on 3/6/20 at 11:55 pm to ElRoos
Yes exactly. And since we don’t play Hayes and can’t play Jah. we need another hard nosed rebounding power forward or center that can run on fast breaks/ catch lobs. Also need a backup Sf that can switch on defense and either pass or hit 3s.
Posted on 3/7/20 at 6:38 am to Bronc
I'll be excited when your word of the day is logic.
Bronc: Pels have streaky individual shooters
Me: They are one of the best 3pt shooting teams in the league by any measure over 63 games
Bronc: The players are streaky, but the team is not
Me: ???
Bronc: Synergy
I'd love to see any data to support any of the streakiness. I'd also love to hear more from you about how Alvin Gentry's demanding and impossible system has created enough synergy to turn a team of streaky shooters into league leaders.
Bronc: Pels have streaky individual shooters
Me: They are one of the best 3pt shooting teams in the league by any measure over 63 games
Bronc: The players are streaky, but the team is not
Me: ???
Bronc: Synergy
I'd love to see any data to support any of the streakiness. I'd also love to hear more from you about how Alvin Gentry's demanding and impossible system has created enough synergy to turn a team of streaky shooters into league leaders.
Posted on 3/7/20 at 6:45 am to southdowns84
quote:
tend to agree with the sentiment from an observational standpoint
I'm all for seeing any evidence to support what they're saying.
My guess on all of this is a sample size + negativity bias problem.
We watch and live within each game. We tend to remember the negatives more than the positives (see this board). Over time, we lose the forest for the trees. It's why looking at season long (and even year over year) samples is important. It gives us better perspective.
Examples: This team never has and never will play defense under Gentry (they were a top 10 defense in 16/17 and played top 10 defense after Boogie went down. #12 since Favors came back, #8 since Zion came back).
Posted on 3/7/20 at 6:49 am to southdowns84
I was mostly using Moore as an illustration of how our synergy in general can work to make the sum greater than just the individual parts.
And the rotation has stabilized more recently, with Gentry keeping guys in at times, perhaps to a fault, but you look earlier in the season and you see where Moore comes out solid against a team like Pho and takes 5 threes, then struggles against Utah only taking 5 shots total and less minutes, gets hot the next game and takes 6 again, hitting 50%. Game against okc he plays good D, gets boards, 2-5 from deep, next game against OKC drops a goose egg. Last 15 games he’s shooting basically 28% from three. 15 before that he was shooting around 40%. Moore seems to have some game to game variance and month to month variance.
And the rotation has stabilized more recently, with Gentry keeping guys in at times, perhaps to a fault, but you look earlier in the season and you see where Moore comes out solid against a team like Pho and takes 5 threes, then struggles against Utah only taking 5 shots total and less minutes, gets hot the next game and takes 6 again, hitting 50%. Game against okc he plays good D, gets boards, 2-5 from deep, next game against OKC drops a goose egg. Last 15 games he’s shooting basically 28% from three. 15 before that he was shooting around 40%. Moore seems to have some game to game variance and month to month variance.
This post was edited on 3/7/20 at 6:50 am
Posted on 3/7/20 at 7:09 am to corndeaux
You still struggling with the concept?
It’s really not that difficult to grasp.
Do we need more examples?
Jrue back from injury, starts off hot, is hitting, so he goes ahead and fires away ten threes that game, hitting 7. Next game he isn’t as hot from deep, so he only shoots 5, misses all but 1. Next game struggles again, takes just 4, misses them. Next game he gets hot again, fires away 8 that games and hits 50%. Next game is solid as well, takes 7, hits three. Jrue and the team are smart enough, often enough, to go with the hot hand and go elsewhere when it’s not as hot on nights. Do a good enough job at finding the hot hands and feeding them and that is how players that can be individually streaky(certainly not all of them are, and certainly not all of them are the same level) can nonetheless produce a highly efficient three point shooting team. Consider in that Gentry progressively adjusted his lineup to feature more and more of the roster with the capacity to hit the three, something not every roster has, and it’s not that difficult to figure out.
Though once again we seem to be in this place where I was complimenting the team, complimenting individuals for knowing how to play to their strengths game to game, but because it wasn’t some sort of non-critical sunshine pumping you get triggered and lash out.
It’s really not that difficult to grasp.
Do we need more examples?
Jrue back from injury, starts off hot, is hitting, so he goes ahead and fires away ten threes that game, hitting 7. Next game he isn’t as hot from deep, so he only shoots 5, misses all but 1. Next game struggles again, takes just 4, misses them. Next game he gets hot again, fires away 8 that games and hits 50%. Next game is solid as well, takes 7, hits three. Jrue and the team are smart enough, often enough, to go with the hot hand and go elsewhere when it’s not as hot on nights. Do a good enough job at finding the hot hands and feeding them and that is how players that can be individually streaky(certainly not all of them are, and certainly not all of them are the same level) can nonetheless produce a highly efficient three point shooting team. Consider in that Gentry progressively adjusted his lineup to feature more and more of the roster with the capacity to hit the three, something not every roster has, and it’s not that difficult to figure out.
Though once again we seem to be in this place where I was complimenting the team, complimenting individuals for knowing how to play to their strengths game to game, but because it wasn’t some sort of non-critical sunshine pumping you get triggered and lash out.
Posted on 3/7/20 at 7:42 am to Macintosh504
quote:
Hart is streaky, Lonzo is finally hitting open 3s consistently. Jrue is streaky. How is that hard to comprehend?
This is not just a Pelicans problem. You only think this because the pelicans are the team you watch consistently for the most part. Every team is “inconsistent”. 2015-2016 warriors had games where they couldnt make 3s for shite. Heat just went like 1-18 outside of Duncan. Rockets made under 10% of their 3s the night before against the Clippers. This isnt just a pelicans problem, it naturally happens with all teams
On catch and shoot 3’s: JJ, Ingram, Lonzo, Moore, Melli, Hart, and Jrue are all above 36.2% from 3. JJ, Ingram, and Lonzo all elite above 40%
This post was edited on 3/7/20 at 8:00 am
Posted on 3/7/20 at 8:01 am to LilWezyAna
Every team has hot and cold streaks, true, but individually, we have more streaky shooters than the Warriors, I think anyone that has watched basketball would recognize that. Though again, I’m not sure why this particular observation has gotten to be so controversial either? As you say, streakiness in numerous individuals does not have to prevent an offense from being efficient.
Do people honestly think Moore, Jrue, Lonzo, Jackson, and Hart are dead eye, knockdown, can’t ever leave them open or they will gouge you, three point shooters? Reddick is the only one that fits that bill. And we use him masterfully. But how you overcome individual variance in players is by playing smart team basketball on offense. Moving the ball to the right guys, on the right nights, in the right spots.
Again, not really sure why this is so controversial to some. We have one all time great shooter, one who is increasingly reliable but still not really a bomber, and then a bunch of guys that can move the ball well and have the capacity to be efficient from three but are a differing level of higher variance from night to night. So what we have done is craft a guard and ball movement heavy rotation that can find the right individuals night to night and have diverse skillsets to get buckets. Which has resulted in a really fun, synergistic offensive team. One that I personally would focus less on pure perimeter position shooters and more on the spacing aspect, like getting a guy that can draw defenders away from Zion like a Serge Ibaka or Myles Turner.
Do people honestly think Moore, Jrue, Lonzo, Jackson, and Hart are dead eye, knockdown, can’t ever leave them open or they will gouge you, three point shooters? Reddick is the only one that fits that bill. And we use him masterfully. But how you overcome individual variance in players is by playing smart team basketball on offense. Moving the ball to the right guys, on the right nights, in the right spots.
Again, not really sure why this is so controversial to some. We have one all time great shooter, one who is increasingly reliable but still not really a bomber, and then a bunch of guys that can move the ball well and have the capacity to be efficient from three but are a differing level of higher variance from night to night. So what we have done is craft a guard and ball movement heavy rotation that can find the right individuals night to night and have diverse skillsets to get buckets. Which has resulted in a really fun, synergistic offensive team. One that I personally would focus less on pure perimeter position shooters and more on the spacing aspect, like getting a guy that can draw defenders away from Zion like a Serge Ibaka or Myles Turner.
This post was edited on 3/7/20 at 8:11 am
Posted on 3/7/20 at 8:17 am to Bronc
quote:
Every team has hot and cold streaks, true, but individually, we have more streaky shooters than the Warriors,
We're talking about a skill where the elite miss roughly 55%-60% of the time. Nearly every 3 point shooter is going to be streaky by definition. I think LilWezyAna is right and you think the Pels are streakier than normal because they're the team you watch enough to see the 62% of the times they miss.
This whole thread is focused on the wrong thing IMO. It's the right problem but the wrong solution. The Miami game last night really illustrated it. Good defensive teams can both pack the paint and challenge spot up 3 point shooters. So you need another option when that happens.
Ingram is supposed to be our midrange scorer that opens everything else up, but he's been slumping, and last night he really didn't try much in the midrange, it was all 3s and drives. JJ also makes a big difference because he's not just a spot up shooter, he's a constant motion shooter that bends the defense.
Against Miami there were 4 key plays that kept the offense from really stalling out, an E'Tuwan Moore floater, a Josh Hart Drive, a Lonzo mid range pull up jumper, and a Brandon Ingram 17 footer off a Favors screen. Yes they hit some timely 3s too, but that in between game will be there when teams take away the rim and 3 point line.
That's what the Pels need to improve, the in between game, not shoot 39% from 3 instead of 38%. And they don't even necessarily need new players to do it, Lonzo just needs to get more reliable with that mid range jumper, teams will leave him open for it. And as analytically inefficient a shot as it is, we need Ingram to work that midrange game more so the Pels can shift where the defense is focused.
This post was edited on 3/7/20 at 8:29 am
Posted on 3/7/20 at 8:42 am to SaintNation
JJ injury hurts. Teams had to defend differently cause you can’t leave him open.
Posted on 3/7/20 at 8:56 am to TigerinATL
quote:
We're talking about a skill where the elite miss roughly 55%-60% of the time. Nearly every 3 point shooter is going to be streaky by definition. I think LilWezyAna is right and you think the Pels are streakier than normal because they're the team you watch enough to see the 62% of the times they miss.
I’m taking that into account, I have a league pass device specifically because I like to follow lots of basketball. Which I think helps get fans out of their tunnel vision about their own team and see the landscape more clearly. we are still filled with individuals that are more streaky than teams others have mentioned. Good teams, even great ones, make up any of that difference through synergy. We are elite the way we are in that area because of how we have used the roster and how we have been mostly really smart in our three point shooting. If Jrue isn’t hot we aren’t pushing him to shoot 10 a game like D’Antoni might. And like you say, you kiss more than you make, even with more reliable threats synergy is still important.
I agree with what you are saying about needing more consistent generators of scoring, my initial point before having to defend a widely understood concept is that one of the ways that would really improve that and more importantly Zion’s game, is finding a rim protecting five that can space the floor. Less so about ticking us from 38 to 39%, but more about pulling a defender away from the lane so guys like Ingram/Lonzo/and especially Zion can go to work more easily. Ideally, and almost non-negotiable, that five needs to be an excellent rim protector and defender on the other end. There a rare beast, but at this point it seems clear how teams are trying to defend Zion and having four shooters around him, some of which can generate their own individual offense, while not getting gouged defensively is going to be important.
So I really hope we make another play for someone like Turner. Someone that most think should be shooting more threes a game but is overall a glue guy with a lot of portability in his skillset. A guy that gives you everything of Favors and more, plus can stretch a defense and allow people like Zion to create havoc.
This post was edited on 3/7/20 at 8:59 am
Posted on 3/7/20 at 9:22 am to Bronc
Confirmation bias is a hell of a drug. People tend to dig in on what they think, but you take it to another level.
There is no such thing as the hot hand. LINK
The Pels offense works because they look to find the best shot and they give their players, whoever they are, the green light to take it. Which drives this board nuts every time someone takes a shot no one likes.
3 months ago you were killing Gentry for his system being too perfect. Now, the players/coaches know which guys will make the 3s each night so they can be among league leaders in 3pt shooting despite streaky shooters.
Did they know Ingram, 1-7 from 3 at the time, would hit a huge one in crunch time? Seems like they didn't have good synergy to give the shot to the guy who was shooting 14% on the night. Same thing with Melli, 0-6 until he hit the tying shot, v Dallas.
Do you even understand how crazy what you're proposing is?
No one is arguing that point.
lol. Yes. The Pels shooting is not as good as a team that has featured three of the best shooters of all-time. But you have League Pass, you surely watched the other Warriors. They had almost no other shooting besides those 3 guys.
The Pels have a lot of average to good 3pt shooters with one elite guy (Redick) and one guy getting there (Ingram). They have a system that generates good looks and they have a coach that gives them the green light to keep shooting even when they are off.
Again, sample size is a thing you might want to look up
There is no such thing as the hot hand. LINK
The Pels offense works because they look to find the best shot and they give their players, whoever they are, the green light to take it. Which drives this board nuts every time someone takes a shot no one likes.
3 months ago you were killing Gentry for his system being too perfect. Now, the players/coaches know which guys will make the 3s each night so they can be among league leaders in 3pt shooting despite streaky shooters.
Did they know Ingram, 1-7 from 3 at the time, would hit a huge one in crunch time? Seems like they didn't have good synergy to give the shot to the guy who was shooting 14% on the night. Same thing with Melli, 0-6 until he hit the tying shot, v Dallas.
Do you even understand how crazy what you're proposing is?
quote:
Do people honestly think Moore, Jrue, Lonzo, Jackson, and Hart are dead eye, knockdown, can’t ever leave them open or they will gouge you, three point shooters?
No one is arguing that point.
quote:
we have more streaky shooters than the Warriors, I think anyone that has watched basketball would recognize that.
lol. Yes. The Pels shooting is not as good as a team that has featured three of the best shooters of all-time. But you have League Pass, you surely watched the other Warriors. They had almost no other shooting besides those 3 guys.
The Pels have a lot of average to good 3pt shooters with one elite guy (Redick) and one guy getting there (Ingram). They have a system that generates good looks and they have a coach that gives them the green light to keep shooting even when they are off.
Again, sample size is a thing you might want to look up
This post was edited on 3/7/20 at 9:24 am
Posted on 3/7/20 at 9:35 am to TigerinATL
quote:
This whole thread is focused on the wrong thing IMO. It's the right problem but the wrong solution. The Miami game last night really illustrated it. Good defensive teams can both pack the paint and challenge spot up 3 point shooters. So you need another option when that happens.
It comes down to off the bounce juice.
When things get tight late or in the playoffs, the refs tend to swallow the whistle. If you're running off ball action, but the defense can hold/push/shove, it's dead in the water. This happened to the Warriors v the Cavs. Literally the reason they felt they needed Durant- a guy who can get a good shot on his own v any defense.
And I don't think they can just get better tempo in the clutch if it is more about more contact being allowed.
This more than anything else is the Gentry offense critique that no one talks about.
The Pels don't have a guy who can take contact, fight through it, and still get off a good shot for himself or others. Or a guy who can beat his man one v one and find a good shot for himself or others. Ingram may get there, but he needs time. Same with Zion.
Posted on 3/7/20 at 9:40 am to corndeaux
Take this even further for the "Get the ball to Zion" crowd.
He's shooting 67.5% in the RA according to Basketball-Reference. A 3pt shooter has to hit threes at 45% to match that efficiency.
There are a handful of guys in the league that can do that well from 3. JJ is one of them. Otherwise, every team in the league is taking their chances with a 3 over a Zion dunk. It's just math.
He's shooting 67.5% in the RA according to Basketball-Reference. A 3pt shooter has to hit threes at 45% to match that efficiency.
There are a handful of guys in the league that can do that well from 3. JJ is one of them. Otherwise, every team in the league is taking their chances with a 3 over a Zion dunk. It's just math.
Posted on 3/7/20 at 10:04 am to corndeaux
Corndeaux, you become a chore to talk to because you refuse to engage honestly with anyone you find disagreements with.
You didn’t grasp the concept of synergy and now you are going into chapter long pathetically concocted rebuttals to unrelated conversations using out-of-context snippets to personally attack me. Combining that with absurd straw men to make ridiculous points.
Our offense often being better than the sum of our parts in certain areas is because we do a good to great job spreading the ball around and then when the players that are doing well are identified, we tend to utilize them, when they aren’t, we go elsewhere. Sometimes to a fault according to some. It’s not absolute, but anyone watching this team can see we aren’t just mindlessly asking guys to jack the same shots no matter what. There is a reason Jrue has only taken more than 6 threes when he isn’t shooting well like once or twice this season, all other times it is because he is hitting. You as a team try and feed what is working game to game and if you have the right pieces and the right flow, your sum becomes greater together than the individual parts. Not that difficult a concept. Nowhere did I say though that is some absolute concept and we always execute that like some robotic entity. Like of fricking course you still have times where you rely on guys that have had off-nights coming through in big moments because they have historically proven themselves. Of course some players are still going to force the issue or be given longer leashes than others.
What I said about Gentry is that I suspect part of why we struggle out the gate season after season barring few exceptions, in addition to injuries, is that Gentry pushes unrealistic expectations too fast, he demands a near perfect brand of basketball from imperfect players/situations while not being the most structured coach and I think it is a contributing factor. whereas better coaches do a better job personalizing and crafting their systems to the development level and strengths and weaknesses of their team. I’d add that on top of that, he often does so with imperfect rotations. For instance, we really started to turn it around when we really embraced the idea of having 3-4 shooters and 3 ball movers on the court at almost all times. Before that we were trying to o execute the way we play now using at times, lineups and rotations that just didnt lend itself well.
So you have a team of one elite shooter off the bench, and then a bunch of average to good shooters, so how does that turn into an elite near league-leading unit? Synergy dumbass. A system that generates looks, by maximizing rotations and ball movement, and not just telling everyone to chuck it like you think. If everyone just came out and chucked mindlessly all game, we would be an average to possibly slightly below average shooting team. But we do as good as anyone optimizing all aspects of offensive strategy to generate that sort of elite synergy.
You didn’t grasp the concept of synergy and now you are going into chapter long pathetically concocted rebuttals to unrelated conversations using out-of-context snippets to personally attack me. Combining that with absurd straw men to make ridiculous points.
Our offense often being better than the sum of our parts in certain areas is because we do a good to great job spreading the ball around and then when the players that are doing well are identified, we tend to utilize them, when they aren’t, we go elsewhere. Sometimes to a fault according to some. It’s not absolute, but anyone watching this team can see we aren’t just mindlessly asking guys to jack the same shots no matter what. There is a reason Jrue has only taken more than 6 threes when he isn’t shooting well like once or twice this season, all other times it is because he is hitting. You as a team try and feed what is working game to game and if you have the right pieces and the right flow, your sum becomes greater together than the individual parts. Not that difficult a concept. Nowhere did I say though that is some absolute concept and we always execute that like some robotic entity. Like of fricking course you still have times where you rely on guys that have had off-nights coming through in big moments because they have historically proven themselves. Of course some players are still going to force the issue or be given longer leashes than others.
What I said about Gentry is that I suspect part of why we struggle out the gate season after season barring few exceptions, in addition to injuries, is that Gentry pushes unrealistic expectations too fast, he demands a near perfect brand of basketball from imperfect players/situations while not being the most structured coach and I think it is a contributing factor. whereas better coaches do a better job personalizing and crafting their systems to the development level and strengths and weaknesses of their team. I’d add that on top of that, he often does so with imperfect rotations. For instance, we really started to turn it around when we really embraced the idea of having 3-4 shooters and 3 ball movers on the court at almost all times. Before that we were trying to o execute the way we play now using at times, lineups and rotations that just didnt lend itself well.
quote:
The Pels have a lot of average to good 3pt shooters with one elite guy (Redick) and one guy getting there (Ingram). They have a system that generates good looks
So you have a team of one elite shooter off the bench, and then a bunch of average to good shooters, so how does that turn into an elite near league-leading unit? Synergy dumbass. A system that generates looks, by maximizing rotations and ball movement, and not just telling everyone to chuck it like you think. If everyone just came out and chucked mindlessly all game, we would be an average to possibly slightly below average shooting team. But we do as good as anyone optimizing all aspects of offensive strategy to generate that sort of elite synergy.
This post was edited on 3/7/20 at 10:13 am
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