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Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 8/12/20 at 8:35 am to Sasquatch Smash
Posted on 8/12/20 at 8:35 am to Sasquatch Smash
quote:
This is the Conferences trying to cover their asses on the liability front, and maybe shut down the players from organizing a union...which still might happen because of this.
For emphasis...
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Posted on 8/12/20 at 8:47 am to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
I wouldn’t say it’s completely impervious. We don’t know all the factors that are driving the virus right now.
Just basing it on the fact we've seen no significant drops. This thing has spanned globally from November to now with no real slowdown that can't be attributed to severe lockdown situations in most countries. You and I both know a large contingent of folks expected that it would be less prevalent as things heated up. I was skeptical because of what was happening in India. There is a clear difference here, whatever the influencing factors might be.
Posted on 8/12/20 at 8:48 am to lsupride87
quote:
I don’t think strep has a season
I know I have had it in winter and summer
I don't think I've ever had strep outside of cooler months, but I hear what you're saying. Still, it's not as pervasive or impactful as this seems to be.
Posted on 8/12/20 at 8:52 am to Sasquatch Smash
quote:
Outside of the likely, Mardi Gras-induced spike here in Louisiana, which Sunbelt states had big outbreaks before June?
Seems like it is seasonal, just has an expanded zone of how flu behaves in the tropics.
Maybe the 35th parallel rather than the 30th.
Seems there’s some sort of seasonality based on how Europe and the Northeast behaved, and how other areas are firing off “now.”
I don't know. I think these pop-ups correlate to an increase in activities by the general public. New York and the northern population centers got hit worst when it was still pretty cold. We down south are seeing our highest ever cases, hospitalizations and deaths in the midst of 95 degree weather. November is just around the corner at this point and the virus has yet to take a true "break". Mind you, flu can still happen during warmer weather, but there is typically a very discernable drop-off. I'm not seeing that here in areas where people are trying to go about business-as-usual. It seems that if you give it an inch, it immediately grabs the mile. To me, that is very much different than what we see out of similar viruses.
This post was edited on 8/12/20 at 8:54 am
Posted on 8/12/20 at 9:21 am to S1C EM
quote:
I think these pop-ups correlate to an increase in activities by the general public
I don't think the social interaction data based on phones will agree with you there, as things were opened and opening up for two months in some places before the June outbreak began.
Something changed for it to matter all of a sudden.
quote:
New York and the northern population centers got hit worst when it was still pretty cold. We down south are seeing our highest ever cases, hospitalizations and deaths in the midst of 95 degree weather.
Which is my point. Different seasonalities.
Posted on 8/12/20 at 9:26 am to WaWaWeeWa
Pre-print out of the United Arab Emirates investigating the vaccine given for tuberculosis (BCG (bacille Calmette-Guerin))as a potential CoviD preventative. Similar to the previous research on other vaccinations providing some protection.
quote:
Results: 71 subjects received the booster vaccination. This group had zero cases of positive COVID 19 infection. 209 subjects did not receive the vaccination, with 18 positive PCR confirmed COVID 19 cases The infection rate in the unvaccinated group was 8.6% versus zero in the booster vaccinated group. (Fishers exact test p-value=0.004).
Conclusion : Our findings demonstrated the potential effectiveness of the booster BCG vaccine, specifically the booster in preventing Covid-19 infections in an elevated-risk healthcare population.
This post was edited on 8/12/20 at 9:27 am
Posted on 8/12/20 at 9:36 am to Sasquatch Smash
quote:
Which is my point. Different seasonalities.
I would say different demographics and population densities. But the point is it was ravaging places in cold weather and is now doing the same in warm weather. I’m not seeing a “seasonality” there. It’s rampant in everything we’ve seen so far.
Posted on 8/12/20 at 9:45 am to S1C EM
Strep is bacterial though, not viral correct? Big difference.
Posted on 8/12/20 at 9:52 am to S1C EM
quote:
I would say different demographics and population densities.
Densities for sure are at play.
quote:
But the point is it was ravaging places in cold weather and is now doing the same in warm weather. I’m not seeing a “seasonality” there. It’s rampant in everything we’ve seen so far.
Which is what I'm saying. Northern USA and Europe had what was basically the normal respiratory disease season for this thing, though maybe a month or two later than usual flu season.
Outside of Louisiana's first outbreak, likely induced by Mardi Gras, when did the Southern states see significant numbers?
The Southern states are seeing its seasonality be similar to how flu behaves in Mexico and farther south (June).
So, more of a tropical/sub-tropical season that the usual temperate season.
This post was edited on 8/12/20 at 9:54 am
Posted on 8/12/20 at 9:59 am to STLhog
quote:
Strep is bacterial though, not viral correct? Big difference.
You’re correct.
Posted on 8/12/20 at 10:09 am to Sasquatch Smash
quote:
Which is what I'm saying. Northern USA and Europe had what was basically the normal respiratory disease season for this thing, though maybe a month or two later than usual flu season.
Here in Georgia, we were getting hit pretty hard early on in some areas. Both the northern US and Europe (and China) were having outbreaks when the weather was cold. We're currently having (arguably) more severe outbreaks when it's hot. When you say it's seasonal, I'm looking for a temperature cutoff where the spread is slowed. The flu, while it can continue (and same with colds) in warmer months, is much less prevalent. COVID has yet to really slow down. It seems as long as people get together in crowds and "do stuff", outbreaks follow, irrespective of the temperature. So this seems to be a virus that takes advantage of social habits versus favorable climate. Remember, a large portion of GOP_Tiger's hypothesis on COVID tapering off through the summer was based on the assumption that it wouldn't be able to thrive in high, humid temps. That hasn't panned out.
Posted on 8/12/20 at 10:10 am to S1C EM
quote:
hen you say it's seasonal, I'm looking for a temperature cutoff where the spread is slowed.
Is winter the only season in your world?
Posted on 8/12/20 at 10:12 am to Sasquatch Smash
BTW, I see what your graph is saying, but I think much of the slowing that happened in Europe was because of stricter lockdown measures than anything we have done. Has Italy fully opened back up? I didn't think they had.
Posted on 8/12/20 at 10:13 am to Sasquatch Smash
quote:
Is winter the only season in your world?
When are you proposing that it will slow? Countries have been dealing with outbreaks in the winter. We're also seeing outbreaks now in humid, summer weather. Which one is supposed to affect it?
Posted on 8/12/20 at 10:18 am to S1C EM
quote:
When are you proposing that it will slow? Countries have been dealing with outbreaks in the winter. We're also seeing outbreaks now in humid, summer weather. Which one is supposed to affect it?
How are you not getting this? Both...Warm temperatures seem to have help set if off in the South, whereas cooler temperatures seems to have help drive it in the North.
When appropriate herd immunity thresholds are reached, or when the mythical, safe and effective, vaccine arrives.
Immunity is also likely helping those areas hit hardest at the beginning...which wasn't areas in the South.
Check out Hawaii...strict lockdown and mask use. Tiny initial outbreak...now spiking. What changed? What's happening in a location at a similar latitude in Hong Kong? The Philippines? Japan?
Just because it's behaving differently than what we'd expect when it comes to season, doesn't mean it's not seasonally driven.
This post was edited on 8/12/20 at 10:26 am
Posted on 8/12/20 at 10:25 am to Sasquatch Smash
quote:
How are you not getting this? Both...Warm temperatures seem to have help set if off in the South, whereas cooler temperatures seems to have help drive it in the North.
Louisiana and Georgia both had bad outbreaks early on. People social distanced, stores were closed, it slowed down. Places started opening up in late April and as people got more comfortable going out and more places opened (and we had riots and protests), cases started to jump again.
You're telling me that cold weather drives it in one region while warm weather drives it in another?
What other virus operates that way? People in different areas of our country have responded differently and have been under different restrictions at different times which is far more likely to explain what you're seeing than the weather. This post was edited on 8/12/20 at 10:35 am
Posted on 8/12/20 at 10:32 am to Sasquatch Smash
quote:
When appropriate herd immunity thresholds are reached, or when the mythical, safe and effective, vaccine arrives.
I don't think we're anywhere close to this without more evidence of the Tcell immunity. Vaccine, maybe, but who knows. There's already a huge drive by the same people not wearing masks to not take the "government vaccine", either.
quote:
Immunity is also likely helping those areas hit hardest at the beginning...which wasn't areas in the South.
We'll have a better idea about this once New York opens their schools up here shortly. I still think this has much more to do with stricter mitigation efforts in northern states.
quote:
Check out Hawaii...strict lockdown and mask use. Tiny initial outbreak...now spiking. What changed? What's happening in a location at a similar latitude in Hong Kong? The Philippines? Japan?
I'll have to look at those. Admittedly, I haven't kept up as much with them lately.
quote:
Just because it's behaving differently than what we'd expect when it comes to season
Again, it could be seasonally driven....I just don't think we have a good way to tell that yet since everyone is not operating in the same way currently on a social level; but it's still doing things differently than other similar viruses and that was the earlier question.
Posted on 8/12/20 at 11:00 am to S1C EM
quote:
Louisiana and Georgia both had bad outbreaks early on.
Georgia's initial outbreak was not like Louisiana's.
quote:
You're' telling me that cold weather drives it in one region while warm weather drives it in another?
Yes, or more than just temperature, as more than that changes as the seasons change.
All figures from Woldometer. No correction for level of testing, just purely daily cases. Different mitigation efforts. What's driving such similar curves?
Posted on 8/12/20 at 11:06 am to Sasquatch Smash
quote:
No correction for level of testing, just purely daily cases. Different mitigation efforts. What's driving such similar curves?
Honestly, that's pretty interesting. No idea. It's very perplexing. I still feel like the early catch and "flattening of the curve" here had to do with people being afraid and going into panic-driven lockdowns of their own. But as they have become increasingly less fearful, their habits have changed and that is driving the greater spread. But I really don't know; just wild guessing.
Posted on 8/12/20 at 12:00 pm to Sasquatch Smash
Louisiana's early outbreak was largely in NOLA and a few other urban centers. The current spike is being driven by rural areas. It's running wild in my parish. We had an increase of 27 overnight in a parish of just over 14000. I personally know of more than 10 people who have had it or currently have it, fortunately most are doing relatively ok. We're at a little over 3% of the population confirmed infected, so assuming there are 5x asymptomatic and untested, we should be approaching the 20% level shortly. We'll see if Nate Silver knows what he's talking about with the 20% herd immunity hypothesis. Hopefully he's right.
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