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Started By
Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 3/17/20 at 7:13 am to lsu13lsu
Posted on 3/17/20 at 7:13 am to lsu13lsu
In most of China People were given tickets to use for each household so that something like one person could go out once per day to get anything they needed
Posted on 3/17/20 at 7:21 am to lsu13lsu
See, it was too complicated for you and me. It’s our fault that it was off.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 7:21 am to ctiger69
quote:
2% for people in the 90’s
This is just flat out wrong.
I wish people would stop spreading misinformation.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 7:27 am to Volvagia
quote:
Link with this fact please, particular that number with this time frame.
I smell a rat.
You're about to get:
A. a crawfish
B. silence
C. an unrelated insult
D. a fricky link from "Mind over Media" or something similar
Posted on 3/17/20 at 7:41 am to Bulletproof Lover
Summary from a friend of the massive Goldman call yesterday. It’s making waves right now in a positive way:
quote:
Goldman Sachs Investee call where 1,500 companies dialed in. The key economic takeaways were:
50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.
70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.
Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.
The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal.
Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly.
Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.
There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.
China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.
Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.
S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall.
There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.
In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US.
Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.
There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like 9/11 than it does like 2008.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 7:43 am to tiger91
quote:
So that rebound timeline — am I to even think that we’ll be in this “self quarantine” mode for almost 18 months?? Like perhaps no school — no going back to college — no church — no weddings??
This got downvoted but no one answered. If that model suggests that 18 months is the time to go through this andecind time, what happens to this quarantine?
Even July/August — that’s a long time y’all.
Was that rebound model way off? Awesome if so.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 7:47 am to NYNolaguy1
quote:
This is just flat out wrong.
I wish people would stop spreading misinformation.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 7:53 am to ctiger69
quote:
ctiger69
I don't expect you to show how you arrived at this thing killing 2% of people 90+.
It seems you are enjoying calling other people sheep, then running away when you can't produce verifiable facts.
Carry on.
This post was edited on 3/17/20 at 7:54 am
Posted on 3/17/20 at 7:55 am to NYNolaguy1
The thing about the 2% of elderly is, that while it could be true, there would be a HUGE overlap of elderly that would’ve died regardless from some sort of health complication.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 8:00 am to NYNolaguy1
Noticed you didn’t want to attack the main point: Flu deaths vs Coronavirus deaths. But instead you attack some minor statement. Hilarious.
Continue on with the sky is falling. Baaaaaaaaa
Continue on with the sky is falling. Baaaaaaaaa
Posted on 3/17/20 at 8:04 am to ctiger69
Noticed when you got called out on your “main point”, you ignored that.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 8:04 am to TheCaterpillar
quote:
There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that.
Been screaming this.
People worried about the economy long term have no idea what they're talking about
Posted on 3/17/20 at 8:06 am to ctiger69
quote:
Noticed you didn’t want to attack the main point: Flu deaths vs Coronavirus deaths. But instead you attack some minor statement. Hilarious.
...And you're still running from the nonsense you are spewing by changing the subject. Can you justify that 2% of people 90+ will die of this?
What exactly is your assertion with covid vs flu?
Posted on 3/17/20 at 8:06 am to Volvagia
Ha Ha
This post was edited on 3/17/20 at 8:23 am
Posted on 3/17/20 at 8:07 am to ctiger69
quote:
Ignore the facts.
Which are?
Eta: Oh thats cute. Change your posts after you get called out on them.
You would think the person calling people sheep and claiming that others are ignoring facts wouldn't be deleting his posts
This post was edited on 3/17/20 at 8:13 am
Posted on 3/17/20 at 8:18 am to NYNolaguy1
Words is there are five positive cases at North Oaks in Hammond, not reported yet.
Also one was from Independence yesterday but was confirmed at Oschner so that one was attributed to New Orleans
Also one was from Independence yesterday but was confirmed at Oschner so that one was attributed to New Orleans
Posted on 3/17/20 at 8:19 am to TheCaterpillar
There were a lot of positive vibes after that Goldman talk?
Interesting. After predicting a 2% mortality rate and 5% critical rate.
I think most logical people knew what was coming.
Interesting. After predicting a 2% mortality rate and 5% critical rate.
I think most logical people knew what was coming.
This post was edited on 3/17/20 at 8:20 am
Posted on 3/17/20 at 8:20 am to ctiger69
Is trolling this thread your sexual fetish or something?
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