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Posted on 3/17/20 at 1:04 am to tigergirl10
Can't believe I missed this earlier this afternoon:
Carl Goldman Released After Another Negative Coronavirus COVID-19 Test: Part 30
Posted by: Carl Goldman
I've been following (and occasionally posting) his entries for a good bit. It's been comforting to see how well he has handled this illness.
Carl Goldman Released After Another Negative Coronavirus COVID-19 Test: Part 30
Posted by: Carl Goldman
quote:
Back In The States With The Coronavirus – Day 40 (Sunday)
I’m going home tomorrow. On day 40 of my coronavirus, COVID-19, quarantine, my doctor knocked on my door.
“It’s not the grim reaper,” my doc gleefully shouted. He smiled as he handed me a yellow Post-It Note. Blue has always been my favorite color. The yellow Post-It may have caused a shift. Two negatives in a row.
“We’re going to release you,” my doctor shared. “The CDC has changed our protocol. With the length of time you’ve had the virus, we’re positive it’s no longer in your system. Two negative tests in a row prove it. This is your final Post-It Note.”
I've been following (and occasionally posting) his entries for a good bit. It's been comforting to see how well he has handled this illness.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 1:21 am to Korkstand
quote:
It's just preemptive quarantines seem a bit extreme.
ya well nearly country and thousands of scientists across the world disagree with you. please stop talking
Posted on 3/17/20 at 3:39 am to Mr Perfect
quote:
ya well nearly country and thousands of scientists across the world disagree with you. please stop talking
Because nothing bad ever happens when we don't question authority.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 6:09 am to ctiger69
What's good about it ?
This post was edited on 3/17/20 at 6:10 am
Posted on 3/17/20 at 6:17 am to tigergirl10
In what way?
He didn’t say it was nothing. He expressly said the situation should be monitored.
He just said that the risk to Americans was dwarfed by what was posed by the flu in January.
It was adding context to calm someone who was panicking all the way back then believing Twitter claims like there were 100k already dead in China and the government was covering it up.
He didn’t say it was nothing. He expressly said the situation should be monitored.
He just said that the risk to Americans was dwarfed by what was posed by the flu in January.
It was adding context to calm someone who was panicking all the way back then believing Twitter claims like there were 100k already dead in China and the government was covering it up.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 6:22 am to NYNolaguy1
quote:
Current trend line has cases going up 10 fold every two weeks. Thats subject to change of course as social distancing factors in, though when that changes no one knows.
This is an artifact of already present infections being identified as testing pipelines open up and that complete clusterfrick clears up.
The full bore replication rate in this phase of the pandemic in 14 days is around 5x, however I expect that to already to be highly tempered by the behavioral changes due to the panic of this virus.
This post was edited on 3/17/20 at 6:36 am
Posted on 3/17/20 at 6:35 am to Jon Ham
Because that’s when flu season usually peaks
Posted on 3/17/20 at 6:49 am to Volvagia
quote:
This is an artifact of already present infections being identified as testing pipelines open up and that complete clusterfrick clears up.
The full bore replication rate in this phase of the pandemic in 14 days is around 5x, however I expect that to already to be highly tempered by the behavioral changes due to the panic of this virus.
Maybe so. I was looking back to March 1st to now. The rate of increase has been constantly logarithmic within +/- 5% since then.
If you plot it out in excel using a log graph its basically linear. It's not hard then to extrapolate going forward, at least for a little while.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 6:56 am to Volvagia
In that he doesn’t understand risk. I must have told him three or four times the risk of new Chinese bat virus is higher than flu. We are seeing exactly what I was talking about now.
The thing about risk is most people ignore the tail.
The thing about risk is most people ignore the tail.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 6:59 am to tigergirl10
Slackster and his models 
Boy do I ever wish he was right.
Boy do I ever wish he was right.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 7:02 am to GeneralLee
Illustrating “flattening the curve”
This only models infection spread and recovery, and assumes immunity after becoming healthy.
This is what you can expect if the virus is allowed to naturally grow. This is what we have seen to this point. Note how rapidly the infection spreads after it has infected a few individuals:
This is the worst case scenario, as it would result in the deaths of many people who would otherwise have lived due to overstaturation of medical facilities. This also has the shortest duration of effect, but at present the CDC estimates between 200k and 1.7 million dead in the US if this strategy is imposed.
Important to note however the behavior of the little balls never change. All the little “stouts” and ”Darths“ are still going about their day bouncing around like nothing is amiss. In reality, at the upper limit of the death scale estimate, people will self impose quarantine on themselves regardless of government action, thus severely hampering further spread.
It is this unpredictable social element that causes the wide range in CDC estimates.
Call it fear mongering if you wish, but the fact remains that this is their official assessment based on the data they have, and these are the numbers that are causing officials to react the way they are.
Now, what can you do to stop this from happening?
Stay at home procedures and social isolation:
Here is the same simulation with 75% compliance of individuals staying at home.
By limiting the people moving around you also limit the number of interactions and as a result the infection curve is very very flat.
This approach is also essentially economic suicide to do for the illustrated duration of the curve.
As a result, there is some talk which strikes me as more academic than practical to cycle the required social distancing, using ICU saturation metrics as a trigger.
That way you can strike a balance between medical availability with economic output. This also allows you to continually infect more and more people as a kind of stop gap to a vaccine.
If we can even get a third of the population infected (and back healthy), that would be a severe impediment to the viruses replication rate, likely enough so to allow it to spread again naturally with no official mitigation strategy on it.
This only models infection spread and recovery, and assumes immunity after becoming healthy.
This is what you can expect if the virus is allowed to naturally grow. This is what we have seen to this point. Note how rapidly the infection spreads after it has infected a few individuals:
This is the worst case scenario, as it would result in the deaths of many people who would otherwise have lived due to overstaturation of medical facilities. This also has the shortest duration of effect, but at present the CDC estimates between 200k and 1.7 million dead in the US if this strategy is imposed.
Important to note however the behavior of the little balls never change. All the little “stouts” and ”Darths“ are still going about their day bouncing around like nothing is amiss. In reality, at the upper limit of the death scale estimate, people will self impose quarantine on themselves regardless of government action, thus severely hampering further spread.
It is this unpredictable social element that causes the wide range in CDC estimates.
Call it fear mongering if you wish, but the fact remains that this is their official assessment based on the data they have, and these are the numbers that are causing officials to react the way they are.
Now, what can you do to stop this from happening?
Stay at home procedures and social isolation:
Here is the same simulation with 75% compliance of individuals staying at home.
By limiting the people moving around you also limit the number of interactions and as a result the infection curve is very very flat.
This approach is also essentially economic suicide to do for the illustrated duration of the curve.
As a result, there is some talk which strikes me as more academic than practical to cycle the required social distancing, using ICU saturation metrics as a trigger.
That way you can strike a balance between medical availability with economic output. This also allows you to continually infect more and more people as a kind of stop gap to a vaccine.
If we can even get a third of the population infected (and back healthy), that would be a severe impediment to the viruses replication rate, likely enough so to allow it to spread again naturally with no official mitigation strategy on it.
This post was edited on 3/17/20 at 7:08 am
Posted on 3/17/20 at 7:05 am to WicKed WayZ
quote:
People would still be allowed to gather groceries just as they were able to in China.
They were not allowed to gather them in Wuhan. I am not sure about rest of China.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 7:06 am to frankthetank
Number update:
Dec 2019-present: Deaths worldwide from the Coronavirus= 7,000
Jan 2020- present: Deaths worldwide from the FLU= 140,000
But but you just don’t get it, 2% for people in the 90’s, and facts are not wanted here.
Every down vote is a baaaaaa.
Dec 2019-present: Deaths worldwide from the Coronavirus= 7,000
Jan 2020- present: Deaths worldwide from the FLU= 140,000
But but you just don’t get it, 2% for people in the 90’s, and facts are not wanted here.
Every down vote is a baaaaaa.
This post was edited on 3/17/20 at 7:07 am
Posted on 3/17/20 at 7:09 am to ctiger69
if we all agree that this got you some attention, would that be enough to satisfy you for at least today?
Posted on 3/17/20 at 7:11 am to ctiger69
quote:
Jan 2020- present: Deaths worldwide from the FLU= 140,000
quote:
facts
Link with this fact please, particular that number with this time frame.
I smell a rat.
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