"The Rockets Don’t Have a Switch to Flip. They’ll Have to Acquire One." - Kevin O'Connor

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Unlike their predecessors, the Rockets don’t have a catch-all excuse for their play this season. Chris Paul is hampered by a hamstring injury, and at age 33 has shown subtle signs of decline. Eric Gordon has apparently forgotten how to score. The team isn’t shooting well from 3 and lacks depth at every position. There’s also an unquantifiable sense that this team lacks the supreme confidence and drive it had last season; Houston was single-mindedly focused on knocking off the Warriors last season, only to come up short in Game 7 after missing 27 straight 3s — and the 3-pointer is the shot that defines their analytically driven system. It doesn’t take a lot for doubt to start creeping in.

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There’s a clear starting point to explain the Rockets’ struggles. In a vacuum, Houston’s most significant losses this summer — role players Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute to free agency — pale in comparison to losing a star player, but having dependable role players is a necessary ingredient to the championship recipe. The Rockets still have P.J. Tucker, but of the 1,054 minutes that Tucker shared the floor with center Clint Capela last season, 943 came with at least one of Ariza or Mbah a Moute on the floor. Those minutes that previously went to Ariza and Mbah a Moute have gone to youngsters like Gary Clark and Danuel House, journeymen like James Ennis III, and rusty turnstiles like Carmelo Anthony.

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Opposing teams are giving the Rockets a taste of their own medicine by pick-and-rolling them to death, then exploiting mismatches on switches; the goal is to get the big man away from the rim with a switch because it opens the floodgates to the paint. Teams finish 19.4 percent of their possessions using isolations against Houston—which is the highest frequency in a Synergy Sports database that goes back to the 2004-05 season

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Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta has expressed reservations about diving into the luxury tax unless the team’s a true contender. “If you do win the championship, that’s easy money back,” Fertitta said. “Now, if we are in the luxury tax every year and barely getting in the playoffs and a first-round game is a struggle, I’m going to find me a new general manager.”

D’Antoni and Morey feel Fertitta’s pressure. [ ]

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