re: Lets talk about the housing bubble

I'm curious if the gentrification and repopulation of cities that's happening nationwide contributes to that cost differential.

City dirt is more expensive than suburb dirt.

Not sure we are still in a bubble. Think the bubble really broke with the mortgage crisis in 2008-2009. I will say that housing prices haven't risen that much in the last 6-8 years. Some of the prices are pretty flat for homes that are 10-15 years old.

Maybe there is a bubble right now in a lot of areas. In Houston there does not seem to be one. Not saying there isn't but wife is in real estate with Gary Greene so I hear about days on market, price trends, new home incentives, etc...

There's a real problem with supply in a lot of cities because of NIMBYs who shite a brick at anything bigger than two stories, or any kind of apartments other than luxury condos

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Even in parts of rural Alabama, it's getting absurd. Land that used to cost 1500-2500 an acre has now risen to 12-15k, but that's likely due to speculation for commercial and industrial growth in the area instead of housing demand. I know my old man's old man made out like a bandit on some shitty old cotton fields near Huntsville.

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Yep. I'm in Bham and it is crazy. Apartments have stepped their game up big time too. It is almost impossible to find a decent house under 350-400 right now. I'm not talking big, just a house that doesn't need a ton of work done to it.

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There's a real problem with supply in a lot of cities because of NIMBYs who shite a brick at anything bigger than two stories, or any kind of apartments other than luxury condos

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God forbid we allow multiple occupancy rooms of non-relatives.

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Probably why I'm not buying a house right now. Options are pretty shitty and way overpriced for what I'd be getting.

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My wife and I are having our mind blown right now looking to move across town.

Houston isn't like other cities; there is no zoning that prevents low cost apartment complexes or high density residential. There are no natural barriers in any direction for basically 100s of miles. There isn't even an issue as much with distance, since the city has 4-6 commercial centers, not just Downtown.

Yet a planned community will spring up in the middle of a giant field, not so much as a gas station within 10 miles, and the baseline price is $550,000, when 15 miles north in Cypress, SAME SCHOOL DISTRICT, actual accessible commercial areas, and low crime, the same house 10 years older is $200,000. IT MAKES NO SENSE. And there is nothing stopping another developer from building another set of houses across the highway for a lower price.

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Not sure we are still in a bubble. Think the bubble really broke with the mortgage crisis in 2008-2009. I will say that housing prices haven't risen that much in the last 6-8 years. Some of the prices are pretty flat for homes that are 10-15 years old.

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The bubble in 2008 was a financial bubble caused by bad loan practices and fraudulent management of mortgage bonds, not related to low interest rates.

Key is getting a fixed rate on a home that you can be in for the foreseeable future in as good a neighborhood as you can find. Given those, you can almost certainly ride out another bubble bursting. If you are in an elite zip code, odds are it wouldn't be as affected by the bubble either.

If any of you baws are real ballers, I would be buying the shite out of destroyed property in St. Thomas and St. John, USVI. The potential for a 10-15 year gain is insane if you have the money to throw at new construction and wait.

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the housing market will be a casualty.

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Something is always a casualty when trying to fix a problem (real or perceived).

I would think that the historical avg of 9% is way too high for something that is fixed in place (discounting trailers, ).

4% is too low also, so I think we will settle into the 5.5 to 6% range.