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Started By
Message
Who sold during the correction?
Posted on 2/20/18 at 8:43 am
Posted on 2/20/18 at 8:43 am
What is your plan to get back in?
Note: I stayed put. I'm not smart enough to time the market, but was concerned it was heading much lower.
Note: I stayed put. I'm not smart enough to time the market, but was concerned it was heading much lower.
This post was edited on 2/20/18 at 8:44 am
Posted on 2/20/18 at 8:45 am to ItzMe1972
That week was just a taste of what is coming IMO
Posted on 2/20/18 at 8:52 am to ItzMe1972
I made some cash trading on the momentum shifts, but I didn’t dump anything due to the market condition. Sold one stock just because I was down on it and tired holding it.
Posted on 2/20/18 at 8:59 am to stout
What do you believe “is coming?”
Posted on 2/20/18 at 9:04 am to LSUcam7
quote:
What do you believe “is coming?”
The end of the current economic cycle.
Posted on 2/20/18 at 9:29 am to southernelite
quote:
The end of the current economic cycle.
This. We aren't going to avoid inflation and rising bond yields for much longer.
Posted on 2/20/18 at 9:34 am to stout
Playing devils advocate...
Why do you think inflation and yields which are both under historical norms will choke off the economic engine?
I can see this if these two persist over a longer period of time but in the intermediate run, I don’t think there will be an immense effect on anything other than sentiment.
Why do you think inflation and yields which are both under historical norms will choke off the economic engine?
I can see this if these two persist over a longer period of time but in the intermediate run, I don’t think there will be an immense effect on anything other than sentiment.
Posted on 2/20/18 at 9:46 am to LSUcam7
I'm on my phone walking to the gym so ill go into more detail later but inflation and yields are just the start of it. Obama devalued the dollar too much, there are a few bubbles right now (including autos, housing, and college loans) home ownership at its lowest point in decades, stagnate wages coupled with inflation outpacing wage growth, personal debts at all time highs, etc
My business manages default properties nationwide so maybe I'm pessimistic but the average household doesn't have two nickels to rub together and tax cuts won't change that. They make more so they spend more.
My business manages default properties nationwide so maybe I'm pessimistic but the average household doesn't have two nickels to rub together and tax cuts won't change that. They make more so they spend more.
This post was edited on 2/20/18 at 9:50 am
Posted on 2/20/18 at 10:02 am to stout
Devalued the dollar? The dollar was the strongest it had been in awhile when Obama was president..
Look I’m a Trump supporter but I’m also a realist. Like LSUcam said, we are still at historical lows for inflation/rates. Given the capitalized profits model formula (measure of gov’s measure of profits from GDP / interest rates) puts fair value of the market at 3100 for the S&P 500.
This is not to say we could experience another correction (I do believe we will bc we have also experience historically low volatility).
Once interest rates get back to historically average levels then money can “correct” back into traditionally more conservative spaces. Until then, there’s still no where else for money to be made.
Look I’m a Trump supporter but I’m also a realist. Like LSUcam said, we are still at historical lows for inflation/rates. Given the capitalized profits model formula (measure of gov’s measure of profits from GDP / interest rates) puts fair value of the market at 3100 for the S&P 500.
This is not to say we could experience another correction (I do believe we will bc we have also experience historically low volatility).
Once interest rates get back to historically average levels then money can “correct” back into traditionally more conservative spaces. Until then, there’s still no where else for money to be made.
Posted on 2/20/18 at 12:08 pm to Shepherd88
I hope I am wrong. Then again, I make money either way so maybe I am a bit indifferent.
There are just many of the same signs in my opinion (and that's just my opinion so take it FWIW which isn't much) from dealing with RE and foreclosures for going on 17 years now that there are the same underlying issues we saw in 2008 glaring us right in the face. It's a bit different as it's not all subprime. BTW we simply replaced subprime withs sub trenche but that's another discussion.
Like I said, there are real estate bubbles in the vast majority of the 147 metropolitan areas that are eventually going to burst because home values are reaching all time highs and the reality is that wages are not keeping up to support the payments.
A good article I read a while back by Shen Lu from MagnifyMoney stated:
That last line is pretty alarming considering what would happen if inflation rises which makes money harder/more expensive to borrow.
Do I think a repeat of 2008 will happen? No but I do think we are on borrowed time before, as Southernlite said, "the end of the current economic cycle".
There are just many of the same signs in my opinion (and that's just my opinion so take it FWIW which isn't much) from dealing with RE and foreclosures for going on 17 years now that there are the same underlying issues we saw in 2008 glaring us right in the face. It's a bit different as it's not all subprime. BTW we simply replaced subprime withs sub trenche but that's another discussion.
Like I said, there are real estate bubbles in the vast majority of the 147 metropolitan areas that are eventually going to burst because home values are reaching all time highs and the reality is that wages are not keeping up to support the payments.
A good article I read a while back by Shen Lu from MagnifyMoney stated:
quote:
Total household debt increased to $12.84 trillion in the second quarter of 2017, up $114 billion, or 0.9 percent, from the same quarter last year, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported in August. This was a new high since the third quarter of 2008, the peak of the mortgage crisis. People may feel they can get access to funds by borrowing when it is needed, rather than holding money in savings, said Andrew Opdyke, economist at the First Trust Advisors.
In December, the US personal saving rate fell to 2.4% of disposable income, the lowest level since 2007, which itself was low by historical standards. The Federal Reserve reported that in 2016, 44 percent of Americans could not come up with $400 in cash to cover emergencies.
That last line is pretty alarming considering what would happen if inflation rises which makes money harder/more expensive to borrow.
Do I think a repeat of 2008 will happen? No but I do think we are on borrowed time before, as Southernlite said, "the end of the current economic cycle".
This post was edited on 2/20/18 at 12:13 pm
Posted on 2/20/18 at 12:13 pm to stout
To be fair each day that passes is by definition, a day closer to the end of the economic cycle.
Can't do much more than hope to be ready for it.
Can't do much more than hope to be ready for it.
Posted on 2/20/18 at 1:58 pm to Shepherd88
Wesbury is the man. Where do you work, Shep?
Posted on 2/20/18 at 2:23 pm to LSUcam7
One of the many hated firms of this board haha, although I consider myself a little non-traditional compared to some of the older guys in the business. (Meaning I ain’t pushing A share mutual funds on everyone).
Posted on 2/20/18 at 2:45 pm to Shepherd88
What’s your personal email?
Posted on 2/20/18 at 2:52 pm to LSUcam7
(no message)
This post was edited on 2/20/18 at 6:48 pm
Posted on 2/20/18 at 4:35 pm to ItzMe1972
I sold bonds and bought more stocks especially REITs as they got hammered.
Posted on 2/20/18 at 6:20 pm to Teddy Ruxpin
quote:
Can't do much more than hope to be ready for it
How would you suggest doing that?
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