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Basketball NCAA Tourney hopes
Posted on 2/19/18 at 9:43 am
Posted on 2/19/18 at 9:43 am
We are currently 15-11 with wins over Michigan, Houston, A&M x 2, Arkansas x2, Missouri.
Only 2 bad losses in SFA and Vandy, the rest were to above average teams.
If we win 3 of 4 to finish the regular season, then knock off someone in the SEC Tournament like Florida/UK/Alabama, does the tournament slide us into one of those 11-seed vs. 11-seed play in games or maybe reward us a 10 seed?
I know it's a long shot, but far from impossible.
Only 2 bad losses in SFA and Vandy, the rest were to above average teams.
If we win 3 of 4 to finish the regular season, then knock off someone in the SEC Tournament like Florida/UK/Alabama, does the tournament slide us into one of those 11-seed vs. 11-seed play in games or maybe reward us a 10 seed?
I know it's a long shot, but far from impossible.
14
Posted on 2/19/18 at 9:45 am to Minden tiger
That damn Vandy game
Posted on 2/19/18 at 9:46 am to Minden tiger
win out and win a couple in sec tourney
Posted on 2/19/18 at 9:46 am to Minden tiger
LSU will have to win the SECT. Period.
Posted on 2/19/18 at 9:47 am to Minden tiger
quote:
does the tournament slide us into one of those 11-seed vs. 11-seed play in games or maybe reward us a 10 seed?
play-in 11 seed is the most likely shot we have at this point.
Posted on 2/19/18 at 9:53 am to ell_13
quote:
LSU will have to win the SECT. Period.
Not yet. I think if we win 3 of 4 left on regular season slate and then get a statement win in SECT we have a case.
Bracketology has Alabama as a 7-seed, Florida a 6-seed, Kentucky a 6-seed, Arkansas a 10-seed. Beating one of them in SECT would get committee's attention.
I think two SECT wins and we're a lock.
Posted on 2/19/18 at 9:56 am to ell_13
quote:
LSU will have to win the SECT. Period.
Wrong (if LSU can finish SEC play at least 9-9).
A LOT can change in 2 weeks and certainly LSU hasn't shown great consistency. But RIGHT NOW they are very much in the conversation for an at large bid and have a TON to play for.
Here's some Monday trivia:
Which team currently has the most wins vs. the RPI top 25?
A. Virgina
B. Villanova
C. Kansas
D. North Carolina
E. LSU
The answer might surprise you.
Posted on 2/19/18 at 10:00 am to Alt26
quote:
Which team currently has the most wins vs. the RPI top 25?
I'll take E for $100, Alex.
Posted on 2/19/18 at 10:11 am to Minden tiger
Problem is you can't afford to lose to any of the remaining games against teams you should beat - UGA, Vandy, USCe, and Miss St
Then it's always good to get the bye and not have to play that first day - which would mean finishing 10th or higher. And then stay in SEC tourney as long as you can.
All those teams ahead of LSU have better SOS and RPI metrics.
It's doable, I think it takes winning out regular season, any loss would be taking steps backwards.
Then it's always good to get the bye and not have to play that first day - which would mean finishing 10th or higher. And then stay in SEC tourney as long as you can.
All those teams ahead of LSU have better SOS and RPI metrics.
It's doable, I think it takes winning out regular season, any loss would be taking steps backwards.
Posted on 2/19/18 at 10:14 am to Minden tiger
LSU has a chance if all those schools involved with the probing scandal currently ranked in the tournament get postseason bans before the tournament starts. Would make LSU chances much higher for getting in
Posted on 2/19/18 at 10:26 am to ell_13
quote:
LSU will have to win the SECT. Period
No. We aren't far off right now. Need to take care of Vandy this time and beat UGA and Mississippi State. That would probably move us above 64 RPI going into the SECT.
Posted on 2/19/18 at 10:27 am to nicholastiger
A USC loss would hurt the least, assuming we win the others.
Posted on 2/19/18 at 10:39 am to LSU Patrick
If we go through 3-1 with a loss at USC then we make the SEC tournament interesting, outside of outright winning it. If we go 4-0 and end the season 19-11, 9-9 in conference on a 5 game winning streak with 7 wins over NCAA tourney teams then we’re a good win away from being in.
Long story short, we win the next 5 games we play and we’re virtually a lock. But that’s a very tall order.
Long story short, we win the next 5 games we play and we’re virtually a lock. But that’s a very tall order.
Posted on 2/19/18 at 10:40 am to ell_13
quote:
LSU will have to win the SECT. Period.
Just to clarify, you think that if LSU wins out the regular season (4 games) and finishes 10-8 in conference, then wins 3 straight in the SEC tourney and loses a close game in the SEC tourney finals to finish 22-12 overall...they will not receive an NCAA tourney bid?
This post was edited on 2/19/18 at 10:43 am
Posted on 2/19/18 at 10:46 am to Minden tiger
The inclusion of ESPN's BPI this year for the Committee's consideration is huge. While it was probably viewed in the past, this year it is officially considered. From what I understand, it puts a higher value on road wins, especially against the top 50. We have two true road wins and one neutral site win against the top 50.
If we win 3 of the last 4 (and 1-2 in the SECT), we will be the most interesting team on Selection Sunday. 19-20 wins, at least 7 top 50 wins and only two losses to teams in the 100-150 range (one of which, SFA, will likely be an automatic bid team). We will get a chance to see how much weight top wins and the BPI factors into the Committee decision.
If we win 3 of the last 4 (and 1-2 in the SECT), we will be the most interesting team on Selection Sunday. 19-20 wins, at least 7 top 50 wins and only two losses to teams in the 100-150 range (one of which, SFA, will likely be an automatic bid team). We will get a chance to see how much weight top wins and the BPI factors into the Committee decision.
This post was edited on 2/19/18 at 10:48 am
Posted on 2/19/18 at 10:48 am to Minden tiger
Hate to think about it, but you're right. The Vandy and SFA games are likely what keeps us out at this point. Just have to finish strong and hope for a deep SEC tourney run.
Posted on 2/19/18 at 10:54 am to lsumatt
quote:
Just to clarify, you think that if LSU wins out the regular season (4 games) and finishes 10-8 in conference, then wins 3 straight in the SEC tourney and loses a close game in the SEC tourney finals to finish 22-12 overall...they will not receive an NCAA tourney bid?
Don't feed the trolls Matt. I was about to type a similar reply. While unlikely, there's no way that if LSU wins it's last 4 regular season games and wins a few games in the SECT that we're not in the NCAA tournament.
Posted on 2/19/18 at 10:56 am to Minden tiger
That SFA loss still gets me. What a crappy finish
Posted on 2/19/18 at 11:44 am to Minden tiger
Even if we make a run, the biggest issue I see is how many SEC teams will the committee let in? Right now, I'd say 8 are firmly in barring a really weak finish. Arkansas is probably the closest to the bubble and they have a really tough four games remaining. But if they falter, down goes a couple of our biggest wins.
So, even if we finish strong, would someone else have to fall out or would the conference get a 9th team in?
So, even if we finish strong, would someone else have to fall out or would the conference get a 9th team in?
Posted on 2/19/18 at 11:46 am to LSU Patrick
quote:This isn't baseball. Basketball has so many autobids and upsets to steal spots that you need to be in the top 40 to feel safe. Anything other than winning the SECT would not get us there. No at-large in that case. Sorry.
That would probably move us above 64 RPI going into the SECT.
This post was edited on 2/19/18 at 11:47 am
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