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Started By
Message
re: Basketball NCAA Tourney hopes
Posted on 2/19/18 at 11:46 am to ellessuuuu
Posted on 2/19/18 at 11:46 am to ellessuuuu
quote:
The inclusion of ESPN's BPI this year for the Committee's consideration is huge. While it was probably viewed in the past, this year it is officially considered. From what I understand, it puts a higher value on road wins, especially against the top 50. We have two true road wins and one neutral site win against the top 50.
I don't think the BPI is as big a metric as intially thought (myself included). For example, Gonzaga has been in the top 12 or so for a while. But, when the committee release its top 16 (i.e. 1-4 seeds for each region) a few weeks back Gonzaga was nowhere to be found. The logical thought was because they had a "low" RPI (in the 40's) and only 4 "tier one" wins. The committee has long put a higher value on wins away from home. This year they quantified it with the tier system.
I don't the we'll hear much about BPI, KenPom, etc. on Selection Sunday. I think what you will hear is: number of tier one wins; strength of schedule; and wins away from home.
LSU currently has 7 Tier one wins. Only a very small handful of teams have as many or more and they are all looking at 1 or 2 seeds. LSU's SOS is 35. That number is good, but not great. In games away from home LSU is 4-7. That hurts. However, 3 of those 4 wins are against the RPI top 30.
A 3-1 finish means LSU adds two (possibly 3) more top 100 wins to the resume. It also means they get another road win would could potentially be another tier one win (road wins vs. the RPI top 75 are tier one wins). That would give them A LOT to play for in the SECT. In fact, the SEC currently has 7 teams in the RPI top 50. So the opportunity to add to the resume would still be there.
0
Posted on 2/19/18 at 12:34 pm to Minden tiger
Lunardi currently has LSU outside of the first 8 teams not in the tourney, so I would think that LSU needs to win out in the regular season to feel comfortable. Granted, they are all very winnable games so it can be done. Quality wins are definitely in LSU's favor, but 11 losses and a lot of weak non-conference games are what is keeping y'all out at this point.
Still a chance, but the odds are probably <10%
Still a chance, but the odds are probably <10%
Posted on 2/19/18 at 12:56 pm to Minden tiger
Give up, they aren't making the tourney
Posted on 2/19/18 at 1:15 pm to Alt26
We've beaten good teams that have beaten really good teams, too.
It will still be tough to get in, but we're locked into the NIT. Damn impressive considering our record a year ago ag top 50 RPI teams.
It will still be tough to get in, but we're locked into the NIT. Damn impressive considering our record a year ago ag top 50 RPI teams.
Posted on 2/19/18 at 1:24 pm to Dawgsontop34
quote:
Lunardi currently has LSU outside of the first 8 teams not in the tourney, so I would think that LSU needs to win out in the regular season to feel comfortable. Granted, they are all very winnable games so it can be done. Quality wins are definitely in LSU's favor, but 11 losses and a lot of weak non-conference games are what is keeping y'all out at this point.
Still a chance, but the odds are probably <10%
Lunardi is just one of numerous "bracketologist". He just happens to be the most well known because of his platform at ESPN. But just because he's well known doesn't mean he's the most accurate at reading the tea leaves (which is really all this is)
This site does a good job of compiling numerous brackets and filtering out averages.
LINK
As of today, LSU sits in the "first four out" category if you compile the average of 77 different bracket projections. Obviously a LOT can and will change over the next 3 weeks. For instance: several projections have Louisville "in" or very close. However, their schedule is absolutely brutal to end the season (@ Duke, @ Va. Tech, UVA, NC. State). 0-4 is a real possibility there. Baylor is one of the "last 4 in". But they play four projected tournament teams to end the season. St. Bonaventure is "in". But their last 4 games are against teams with weak RPI's (only 1 has a sub 100 RPI, and that's Davidson at 98). SBU's SOS is already at 87 and going to get worse.
This is a fluid deal all the way to selection Sunday.
Posted on 2/19/18 at 1:48 pm to sunnydaze
Why wouldn’t we enjoy being in a position with 4 games left where making the tournament is at least a possibility?
We still have something to play for, outside of just a good finish and the NIT, which no one thought would be the case.
We still have something to play for, outside of just a good finish and the NIT, which no one thought would be the case.
This post was edited on 2/19/18 at 1:48 pm
Posted on 2/19/18 at 2:18 pm to sunnydaze
Exactly they not making the tourney unless they win the SECT plain and simple. Some of y’all are delusional at best
Posted on 2/19/18 at 2:44 pm to Double Oh
quote:
Exactly they not making the tourney unless they win the SECT plain and simple.
I will repeat my question:
To clarify, you think that if LSU wins out the regular season (4 games) and finishes 10-8 in conference, then wins 3 straight in the SEC tourney and loses a close game in the SEC tourney finals to finish 22-12 overall...they will not receive an NCAA tourney bid?
Posted on 2/19/18 at 2:54 pm to Minden tiger
I don't think winning 3 out of 4 would do much for us aside from locking up an NIT bid. 4-0 would definitely put us right on the cut line though. At the very worst, 4-0 would put us as a lock to be the first SEC team not in...
Posted on 2/19/18 at 3:00 pm to ccox11
We need to win both games this week then you will hear the bubble talk.
Now if we run the table in the regular season and win at least 2 in the SEC tourney then I think we are a lock.
Now if we run the table in the regular season and win at least 2 in the SEC tourney then I think we are a lock.
Posted on 2/19/18 at 3:26 pm to ccox11
quote:
I don't think winning 3 out of 4 would do much for us aside from locking up an NIT bid.
Honest question for the sake of discussion. This statement is based upon what facts?
Posted on 2/19/18 at 3:28 pm to Alt26
the team hasn't even won back to back games in forever, if they can string a couple together, then we'll see
they have a ton of work to do and other teams need to lose too
they have a ton of work to do and other teams need to lose too
Posted on 2/20/18 at 8:02 am to Double Oh
There is TD peer pressure to pump up LSU.
For the life of your first born, or your mother if you have no kids, what would the sunshine pumpers predict?
If you are right, you get the greater of 100k or your net worth. If wrong your most beloved dies.
For the life of your first born, or your mother if you have no kids, what would the sunshine pumpers predict?
If you are right, you get the greater of 100k or your net worth. If wrong your most beloved dies.
Posted on 2/20/18 at 8:22 am to Alt26
kansas
Posted on 2/20/18 at 8:56 am to BANDE
Saw we weren’t listed as a bad loss on Houston’s resume 
Posted on 2/20/18 at 8:59 am to Minden tiger
Games of note tonight:
(Obviously) Vandy @ LSU (winning won't help LSU a ton. But losing could potentially be devastating)
Miss St. @ A&M (pull for the Aggies. 1. LSU needs A&M to have a high RPI. (2) Miss. St. is a "bubble" team like LSU)
WVU @ Baylor (pull for WVU)
BC @ NC. State (pull for BC)
Indiana @ Nebraska (go Hoosiers)
UK & Ark. (pull for Arkansas. Like A&M, LSU wants Ark. to finish the season red hot)
(Obviously) Vandy @ LSU (winning won't help LSU a ton. But losing could potentially be devastating)
Miss St. @ A&M (pull for the Aggies. 1. LSU needs A&M to have a high RPI. (2) Miss. St. is a "bubble" team like LSU)
WVU @ Baylor (pull for WVU)
BC @ NC. State (pull for BC)
Indiana @ Nebraska (go Hoosiers)
UK & Ark. (pull for Arkansas. Like A&M, LSU wants Ark. to finish the season red hot)
Posted on 2/20/18 at 9:07 am to Alt26
BB03 needs to start a tourney watch thread.
Posted on 2/20/18 at 9:14 am to Alt26
so pumped for tonight.
This is a must win. Absolutely cannot lose to Vandy at home.
This is a must win. Absolutely cannot lose to Vandy at home.
Posted on 2/20/18 at 9:34 am to SouthOfSouth
Vandy is playing their best basketball of the year, but are winless on the road (should have won at Kentucky).Can’t let LaChance get off to a good start, suspecting Edwards will be on him early. We shoot like we did vs arky and get Reath some early buckets we’ll be good.
Posted on 2/20/18 at 9:38 am to S
It's crazy to think we havent won 2 games in a row in over a month. Hope we can change that.
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