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re: Can someone please justify why Orgeron kicked the FG against ND?
Posted on 1/29/18 at 12:19 pm to TheWalrus
Posted on 1/29/18 at 12:19 pm to TheWalrus
quote:and our kicker BARELY made it - and no one talks about that. It's a sharp angle, and our kicker severely pulled that kick, but it snuck in the upright.
The kick from that angle was lower percentage than going for it.
Honest to god, watching it live, when it left his foot I thought he missed it.
Posted on 1/29/18 at 12:19 pm to schwartzy
quote:
Can someone please justify why Orgeron kicked the FG against ND?
2 minutes ish to go in the game with a defense that had been very good all day long. Kicking the field goal would give LSU the lead and allow the better unit a chance to win the game.
Posted on 1/29/18 at 12:23 pm to atltiger6487
There's really nothing anyone can say to make that the right decision. You have a star RB playing in his last game and you're a foot away. If you get stuffed, they have to try and get the ball out of their own end zone abs drive the length of the field. Our kickers had been horrible. O was too afraid to fail in an exhibition game. Even still I'm not even convinced that angled kick was a higher percentage play than handing it to Guice. I can't imagine how much O's butt will pucker if we're ever in a truly meaningful game with him at the helm
This post was edited on 1/29/18 at 12:28 pm
Posted on 1/29/18 at 12:24 pm to schwartzy
The #1 reason he kicked is because it worked against Auburn. It should have worked this game as well
Posted on 1/29/18 at 12:26 pm to Goldrush25
How do you know what "predictive analysis or big data" he did or didn't have available or has or hasn't studied?
It's easy to second-guess and to throw around big-sounding terms, but s little harder to prove it. Since you're so confident in the outcome, why don't you present YOUR "predictive analysis" to prove your point based on a "large (enough) sample size?"
It's easy to second-guess and to throw around big-sounding terms, but s little harder to prove it. Since you're so confident in the outcome, why don't you present YOUR "predictive analysis" to prove your point based on a "large (enough) sample size?"
Posted on 1/29/18 at 12:33 pm to schwartzy
quote:
Reasons to kick the FG: 1. ?
1. ND had stuffed the run previously on short yardage and we were struggling getting consistent push up front
2. The FG is the higher percentage play despite our FG woes
3. See Florida 2016
4. Faith in the highest paid DC in CFB to stop a ND offense that wasn't exactly a powerhouse
Posted on 1/29/18 at 12:39 pm to schwartzy
It was a terrible call. Even not converting down there and leaving the Irish backed up inside the 1 would have been preferable.
Posted on 1/29/18 at 12:39 pm to schwartzy
quote:
Can someone please justify why Orgeron kicked the FG against ND?
Because if he had gone for the TD and been stopped, then the imbeciles on Tiger Rant would have crucified him for not kicking the FG when he had the chance.
Posted on 1/29/18 at 12:40 pm to BigSlick
quote:
How do you know what "predictive analysis or big data" he did or didn't have available or has or hasn't studied?
Because all of what I've been discussing on this matter can be referenced with a simple google search. Google odds of converting a 4th and short, odds of scoring from a particular point on the field, win probability.
All of that information is out there and easily accessible, and if he followed what that information tells us, he would've gone for the TD.
I was going to provide links but I know you're just going to make an appeal to Orgeron's authority over mine so it's probably useless. Google the information yourself, it's not hard to find if you want to find it.
Posted on 1/29/18 at 12:40 pm to schwartzy
I usually don't get onboard with threads about past games. But, I agree 100%.
I was on team O until that call. Spineless and stupid.
I was on team O until that call. Spineless and stupid.
Posted on 1/29/18 at 12:42 pm to tschla1
quote:so you're saying O makes crucial in-game decisions based on possible fan criticism?
Because if he had gone for the TD and been stopped, then the imbeciles on Tiger Rant would have crucified him for not kicking the FG when he had the chance.
If that's even close to being true, god help us.
Posted on 1/29/18 at 12:43 pm to Goldrush25
WRONG!!! In quarters 1, 2 & 3 you go for the TD. In the 4th quarter (especially under 2 mins) you take whatever lead you can get!
This post was edited on 1/29/18 at 12:47 pm
Posted on 1/29/18 at 12:46 pm to atltiger6487
No, that was sarcasm. I was trying to point out that people will criticize play calling no matter who it is or what the call was. But anyone who knows football knows that you take the lead in that situation. 99.9% of coaches in that situation would have kicked the FG to go ahead.
This post was edited on 1/29/18 at 12:48 pm
Posted on 1/29/18 at 12:47 pm to Goldrush25
It is amusing that we are discussing kicking a FG vs going for a TD on 4th and an inch when the elephant in the room should be: "How does the D allow ND's back up QB to go 73 yards in 3 plays and 35 seconds for the TD?"
Posted on 1/29/18 at 12:49 pm to BayouCowboy
quote:
"How does the D allow ND's back up QB to go 73 yards in 3 plays and 35 seconds for the TD?"
Ding, ding, ding...winner!!! That's what lost the game - not the play call.
Posted on 1/29/18 at 12:54 pm to tschla1
quote:
WRONG!!! In quarters 1, 2 & 3 you go for the TD. In the 4th quarter (especially under 2 mins) you take whatever lead you can!
Except with a made FG you give your opponent a starting field position of the 25 yard. You miss the TD, opponent starts off inside their one. Average points scored from that distance is less than 2. That means the majority of teams don't even get to kick a FG. The number of teams that score from their own 25 is considerably higher.
By kicking you increase your odds of winning by a smaller margin than if you scored the TD. The odds of giving up the score if you convert on either is the same. The odds of the opponent scoring are higher if you miss the FG than they are than if you miss the TD. The TD was the correct decision.
You don't apply a single principle to every single situation. Game situation, down and distance does matter. If they were 3 yards out you kick the FG. They were 3 inches out. Different story.
This post was edited on 1/29/18 at 12:59 pm
Posted on 1/29/18 at 12:56 pm to TigerLunatik
quote:
What worries me is that if he won't go for it in an exhibition, what's he gonna do if he happens to find himself in a game with a chance to keep LSU in the hunt for a trip to Atlanta?
If he's in a tie game against Alabama with 2 minutes to go, I sure as hell hope he kicks the FG to take the lead.
The only reason to go for it in that situation is if it's a meaningless exhibition game.
Posted on 1/29/18 at 1:01 pm to schwartzy
For the record, I would have gone for it. If for nothing else, the stakes of the game weren't high. That said, I can understand why he kicked the FG.
It's 4th down in a TIE ball game. Maybe Guice (or whoever) gets a TD. But that's not a guarantee (see the Florida game). Had he gone for it and did not convert people would be LOSING THEIR shite on here complaining that in a TIE ball game you take the FG and the lead. Particularly if ND came down and got a FG to beat you.
With the FG, you ensured that a FG didn't beat you. If you told LSU fans before the game that ND would have to go 80 yards in 2:00 with only one timeout vs. Aranda's defense most would have taken that scenario.
Hindsight is 20/20. At the time, Ed took the lead while eliminating the chance for a FG to beat him. He trusted his D to make one final stop. No one would have thought the kid from ND would make a terrific catch and the LSU DB's would turn into the Keystone Cops.
I agree. The punt return for a TD was a great call!
It's 4th down in a TIE ball game. Maybe Guice (or whoever) gets a TD. But that's not a guarantee (see the Florida game). Had he gone for it and did not convert people would be LOSING THEIR shite on here complaining that in a TIE ball game you take the FG and the lead. Particularly if ND came down and got a FG to beat you.
With the FG, you ensured that a FG didn't beat you. If you told LSU fans before the game that ND would have to go 80 yards in 2:00 with only one timeout vs. Aranda's defense most would have taken that scenario.
Hindsight is 20/20. At the time, Ed took the lead while eliminating the chance for a FG to beat him. He trusted his D to make one final stop. No one would have thought the kid from ND would make a terrific catch and the LSU DB's would turn into the Keystone Cops.
quote:
He can't coach like that if he wants to put teams away. Aggressive play calling is the only way we came back to beat Auburn, which he was lucky to win.
I agree. The punt return for a TD was a great call!
Posted on 1/29/18 at 1:02 pm to BMoney
quote:so a team should NEVER go for a 4th and goal, from the 1-inch line in the last 2 minutes of a non-bowl game?
The only reason to go for it in that situation is if it's a meaningless exhibition game.
Really, McFly?
Posted on 1/29/18 at 1:03 pm to schwartzy
Easy. You go for the lead 10/10 times. Your defense has stopped them pretty much all game. You go for it and don't convert, now you gave them the momentum AND only needing a Fieldgoal to win the game. Easy decision IMO..
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