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re: Can someone please justify why Orgeron kicked the FG against ND?
Posted on 1/29/18 at 1:03 pm to schwartzy
Posted on 1/29/18 at 1:03 pm to schwartzy
quote:
O needs to be accountable for his decisions
You really think this fricking board isn't holding him accountable for his decisions? Literally every decision he has made since becoming HC has been discussed ad nauseam on here.
Watching you melt about CEO nonstop makes me think you seriously need more excitement in your life, baw.
0
Posted on 1/29/18 at 1:04 pm to Goldrush25
1. What we know is that from the Auburn game on Aranda has been a master of 2nd half adjustments.
2. Notre Dame's MO has been a very good defensive team with a one dimensional offense similar to LSU (strong run/poor pass).
3. Despite ND having a scoring drive in the 4th we had been solid defensively.
4. ND was now relying on their back up QB and LSU has had solid CB and safety play most of the season.
Odds are we should have been able to stop ND or have we now lost faith in Aranda?
2. Notre Dame's MO has been a very good defensive team with a one dimensional offense similar to LSU (strong run/poor pass).
3. Despite ND having a scoring drive in the 4th we had been solid defensively.
4. ND was now relying on their back up QB and LSU has had solid CB and safety play most of the season.
Odds are we should have been able to stop ND or have we now lost faith in Aranda?
Posted on 1/29/18 at 1:04 pm to Alt26
quote:
With the FG, you ensured that a FG didn't beat you. If you told LSU fans before the game that ND would have to go 80 yards in 2:00 with only one timeout vs. Aranda's defense most would have taken that scenario
Except it didn't ensure it.
We had new information since the beginning of the game, and that information was that ND just marched down the field and scored on the previous drive. A coach should take new information into account.
This post was edited on 1/29/18 at 1:07 pm
Posted on 1/29/18 at 1:08 pm to tschla1
quote:now that's just flat out wrong. That means only 1 out of 1000 coaches would go for it. There are 672 teams in Divisions I FBS, FCS, II, and III. So NOT ONE coach in any of these divions would've gone for it?
But anyone who knows football knows that you take the lead in that situation. 99.9% of coaches in that situation would have kicked the FG to go ahead.
I agree that probably a majority of coaches would've kicked the FG, but I'd guess one-third of coaches would've gone for the TD.
This post was edited on 1/29/18 at 1:39 pm
Posted on 1/29/18 at 1:12 pm to Goldrush25
LINK
Odds of winning with 2 minutes left when up by 3--90%, which are the same odds when up by 7 points-- If you believe the chart.
ETA-- So, if the odds of making the field goal are greater than scoring TD, and the chart is correct, a coach playing the odds should go for the FG, not the TD.
Odds of winning with 2 minutes left when up by 3--90%, which are the same odds when up by 7 points-- If you believe the chart.
ETA-- So, if the odds of making the field goal are greater than scoring TD, and the chart is correct, a coach playing the odds should go for the FG, not the TD.
This post was edited on 1/29/18 at 1:17 pm
Posted on 1/29/18 at 1:21 pm to schwartzy
This was like a month ago. O's a terrible coach chances are next season will suck gotta move on with your life.
Posted on 1/29/18 at 1:51 pm to beauxroux
quote:
Odds of winning with 2 minutes left when up by 3--90%, which are the same odds when up by 7 points-- If you believe the chart.
That chart you're citing says specifically it doesn't take into consideration down and distance or field position, those are two huge factors that we've discussed extensively.
And that's been a main point that I and others have made. The odds of the opponent scoring on the ensuing drive are much higher with converting the FG than if you miss the TD.
Even if the probability of making the FG is slightly higher, that doesn't make up for the fact that the expected value for going for it at that distance is 6.9 points, and the expected value for the opponent scoring from inside their own 1 is less than 2 points. If you get more points for succeeding in a particular situation and give up fewer points for failing, then that's the right call.
This post was edited on 1/29/18 at 1:59 pm
Posted on 1/29/18 at 2:28 pm to Goldrush25
I don't think your analysis is complete. Having any lead forces the opponent to score.
What's the EV difference between forcing a team to go, say, seventy yards to get within field goal range and win (if you fail to score) vs. forcing a team to go, say, forty-five yards to get within range of a field goal to tie or seventy-five for a win? (Assuming you can kick it deep enough to prevent a runback or at least stop the runback by the twenty-five.)
What's the EV difference between forcing a team to go, say, seventy yards to get within field goal range and win (if you fail to score) vs. forcing a team to go, say, forty-five yards to get within range of a field goal to tie or seventy-five for a win? (Assuming you can kick it deep enough to prevent a runback or at least stop the runback by the twenty-five.)
Posted on 1/29/18 at 2:29 pm to BMoney
quote:
If he's in a tie game against Alabama with 2 minutes to go, I sure as hell hope he kicks the FG to take the lead.
The only reason to go for it in that situation is if it's a meaningless exhibition game.
Even if Bama just had a long touchdown drive on the previous series in which they went right down the field with ease?
I disagree here for sure.
Posted on 1/29/18 at 2:30 pm to schwartzy
quote:So, debating this on a message board is somehow related to him being held accountable?
O needs to be accountable for his decisions.
Posted on 1/29/18 at 2:32 pm to BigSlick
Most coaches facing this situation don't have to call upon a kicker who MAY have a 50/50 chance at success from point blank at an angle. LSU had marched all the way down the field on that drive and getting a foot was all that was needed.
Odds were no worse for the TD than a FG and 2:00 were still left.
Odds were no worse for the TD than a FG and 2:00 were still left.
Posted on 1/29/18 at 2:34 pm to schwartzy
It's pretty bad when half of your reasons to go for it extoll the benefits of getting stuffed.
Hindsight being 20/20 you should see how they would have won the game regardless. No reason they wouldn't have scored a TD and we lose in OT 99 times out of 100.
Hindsight being 20/20 you should see how they would have won the game regardless. No reason they wouldn't have scored a TD and we lose in OT 99 times out of 100.
Posted on 1/29/18 at 2:59 pm to TigerLunatik
quote:
What worries me is that if he won't go for it in an exhibition, what's he gonna do if he happens to find himself in a game with a chance to keep LSU in the hunt for a trip to Atlanta?
Im a believer that in spots like that you've got to pick a strategy and stick to it. Like hitting on 16, either do it all the time or never. He went for it against UF last year, so do it again if that's your style. If you always want to kick the FG then do it that way.
Posted on 1/29/18 at 3:02 pm to schwartzy
as much as he is blasted for kicking the fg it would be worse had we been stopped at the 1 and Notre Dame wins by kicking a fg. he would be getting destroyed.
This post was edited on 1/29/18 at 3:19 pm
Posted on 1/29/18 at 3:03 pm to lsuhunt555
quote:
He went for it against UF last year, so do it again if that's your style. If you always want to kick the FG then do it that way.
he had to go for it against UF. we were down 6
Posted on 1/29/18 at 3:09 pm to schwartzy
quote:
That is not how Coach O coached in 2016, where he was more aggressiv
Probably thinking of Guice going the wrong way against Florida in 2016.
I probably would have gone for the TD , but made certain everyone knew where the play was going and what heir assignment was.
Still cannot be too critical they did take the lead. Got beat on a great catch and fluke missteps by the secondary.
Posted on 1/29/18 at 3:13 pm to schwartzy
He did it as a joke, just his way of purposely trying to piss off all the MILESTARDS
Posted on 1/29/18 at 3:14 pm to ReelTiger1
quote:
He did it as a joke, just his way of purposely trying to piss off all the MILESTARDS
that train is never late. always some O nut gargler bringing up Miles.
Posted on 1/29/18 at 3:15 pm to schwartzy
1. They ran 9 plays inside the 1 yd line and scored a TD once.
Posted on 1/29/18 at 3:19 pm to Goldrush25
quote:
Except with a made FG you give your opponent a starting field position of the 25 yard.
AND LOSING!!!
quote:
You miss the TD, opponent starts off inside their one.
and they take a knee and play for overtime.
I would rather my opponent have to drive ~50 yds in under 2 mins and make a FG than play them on equal footing in OT.
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