Third and final number for the 3rd quarter GDP.

Is that greater than 1.9% or is that less than 1.9%?


My Common Core math does not allow judgmental answers.

Category: Things Obama couldn't achieve

We will need a 4.0% number for the 4th quarter to achieve 3.0% for the year. 3.0% is an important number because Trump critics said it couldn’t be done and Obama era 1.5% GDP is the new normal. 3.0% is also important because it makes the tax cuts deficit neutral. Furthermore this will be achieved on executive branch actions ALONE. Trump did that. We will see 4.0%+ 4th quarter GDP which will bring the annual 2017 GDP to 3.0%+. Something that has not been accomplished since GWB.


ETA:

1Q17: 1.4%
2Q17: 3.1%
3Q17: 3.2%


ETA2: My second quarter GDP number was incorrect. I changed it to 3.1%. That means we will need a 4.3% number for the fourth quarter to achieve 3.0% for 2017.

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We will need a 4.0% number for the 4th quarter to achieve 3.0% for the year. 3.0% is an important number because Trump critics said it couldn’t be done and Obama era 1.5% GDP is the new normal. 3.0% is also important because it makes the tax cuts deficit neutral. Furthermore this will be achieved on executive branch actions ALONE. Trump did that. We will see 4.0%+ 4th quarter GDP which will bring the annual 2017 GDP to 3.0%+. Something that has not been accomplished since GWB.

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Great info! Do you really think we will see 4.0 growth or just being hopeful/talking smack? Is that what the projections would indicate?

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These are just the fruits of Obama’s long term economic vision coming home to roost.



CNN and MSNBC have been telling me this for 9 months, so it must be true.

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I regret that I have but one green arrow to give!

Magic wand activated

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Obama was the only President in history not to achieve.

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In trying to be fair, I recall how big a dip "The Great Recession" was - and it was significant. At the same time, once the momentum ran out of the downturn, there was A LOT of upside that Obama had to play with. His across the board, anti-business policies smothered any recovery possible under that otherwise potentially fertile environment.

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Do you really think we will see 4%

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“The regional central bank’s “Nowcast” model calculated the economy was expanding at an annualized pace of 3.98 percent in the fourth quarter, quicker than the 3.92 percent rate calculated a week ago”
...and first quarter of ‘18 projected to be 3.15.

Reuters article

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Great info! Do you really think we will see 4.0 growth or just being hopeful/talking smack?

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The Atlanta Fed is currently predicting 3.3% for the 4Q17. There predictions are subject to change and usually do 95% of the time as new economic reports are released. The Atlanta Fed starts their predictions of each quarter the day after the release of the first estimates from the BEA. For past few weeks they have had predictions from 2.5% to 4.5% for the 4th quarter. I've done calculations on the Atlanta Feds predictions and they have been 0.68% (absolute percentage points) off for the year and all prediction by the Atlanta Fed have been lower than the third and final estimate by the BEA.

Atlanta Fed

The New York Fed is currently predicting 4.0% for the 4Q17. I have not looked into their methodology.

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The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 4.0% for 2017:Q4 and 3.1% for 2018:Q1.

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New York Fed

These predictions are usually conservative and are usually easily beat. When they are not beat is when a large event occurs that negatively impacts GDP, like hurricanes, huge snow events, 911, etc.