re: Weekly Stock Market Plays/Thoughts - March/April

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I can see three ways to play this dividend:
1) buy now and sell on the ride up
2) buy now and hold until dividend with the risk of a rapid decline in share price
3) forget the dividend and buy long term after the sell off. They seem to have a fairly promising pipeline.
Thoughts?

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MACK moved slightly up today and i expect that to continue; we are still 4 weeks off from the divy date so it could drop back into the low 3s again, as well.


my plan if all goes to expectations:
1. hold MACK until the divy date and through divy payment (~$3.40-$3.60)
2. buy back into MACK after the price drops (~$2.40-$2.60)
3. ride MACK back up again to the price settlement. (~$2.90-$3.00)

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How high can y'all see AUPH going in the short-term? Is a return to $8.00+ possible?

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I'd be lying if I gave a prediction. But...
1) I'd be pretty comfortable buying at or below $7 based on Lumira Capital recently buying 3 million shares. Glickman, Aurinia's CEO, is a new partner to that firm.

2) AUPH has LOADS of cash on hand...probably upwards of 200 million after the Merck deal. That's approaching half of market cap.

3) The regulatory agencies in the US, Europe, and Asia have all agreed to essentially fast track phase III, which starts soon. No new regulatory changes from phase II to phase III and no modifications between the three continents--a great sign

4) Fitzgerald Cantor just initiated coverage on AUPH with a $14 price target (within the next year)

5) From today's press realease: Merck (171 billion market cap) will pay upfront for the rights to VOS, which from what I can tell is a form of Voclosporin (Aurinia's main drug) to treat dry eye syndrome in dogs...with hopes of using it for humans in the future.

6) Glickman seems to really know what he's doing, and he's played this game before having sold a drug to big pharma a few years back. I think we're seeing evidence of him being patient with Aurinia and Voclosporin, and I hope we get some earth shattering news on Thursday at a major kidney conference to burn all these shorts.

I'm holding out for at least $28. The following is from today's Press Release:

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VICTORIA, British Columbia--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:AUPH/TSX:AUP) (“Aurinia” or the “Company”) today announced that it has signed a Definitive Agreement (“the Agreement”) granting Merck Animal Health, known as MSD Animal Health outside of the United States and Canada, worldwide rights to develop and commercialize Aurinia’s patented nanomicellar voclosporin ophthalmic solution (VOS) for the treatment of dry eye syndrome in dogs.

Under the terms of this agreement Aurinia will receive an upfront payment and is eligible to receive further payments based on certain development and sales milestones. Furthermore, Aurinia will receive royalties based on global product sales. Merck Animal Health will be responsible for the remaining clinical development and commercialization of VOS for use in the animal health field, while Aurinia retains all human health rights. The companies will share in the final work product and any technical knowledge that may be generated during the collaboration.

“This partnership with Merck Animal Health underscores our long-standing belief that voclosporin has the potential to be effectively used across a range of therapeutic areas, in addition to its primary potential indication for the treatment of lupus nephritis,” said Richard Glickman, Aurinia’s CEO and Chairman of the Board. “In addition to enhancing dry eye treatment options in the animal health field, VOS has a differentiated product profile with long patent life that has the potential to compete in the multi-billion dollar human prescription dry eye market. While this ophthalmology project will continue to be advanced by Merck Animal Health, the Aurinia clinical team will remain focused on our lupus nephritis program, which is on track to begin enrollment for the AURORA Phase III trial this quarter.”

Throughout the past year, Merck Animal Health has conducted proof of concept research in dogs suffering from dry eye syndrome, which affects one out of every 22 dogs. The early symptoms can be easily missed by pet owners, leading to irreversible damage to a dog’s vision and eventually resulting in blindness.

“VOS has the potential to address significant unmet medical needs in ophthalmology, and the preliminary results of our canine dry eye trial are very promising,” says Holger Lehmann, DVM, PhD , Associate Vice President, Drug Discovery, Merck Animal Health. “We look forward to continuing our collaboration with Aurinia and believe this partnership is a prime example of the synergies that exist between human and animal health drug development for the benefit of all of our patients.”

“Completed preclinical and human Phase Ib studies using Aurinia’s nanomicellar VOS formulation have shown encouraging results in terms of delivery of active drug to the target tissues of the eye,” said Neil Solomons, MD, Chief Medical Officer of Aurinia. “The nanomicellar formulation enables high concentrations of voclosporin to be incorporated into a preservative-free solution for local delivery to the ocular surface. This has been shown to potentially improve efficacy, dosing frequency and tolerability versus the current treatments for dry eye syndrome. We are excited about the potential for topical ocular administration of voclosporin utilizing this unique and proprietary nanomicellar drug delivery technology.”

Aurinia is exploring all options to create value with its proprietary nanomicellar ocular formulation of voclosporin in the human health field including, but not limited to, further development, out-licensing or divestiture while remaining focused on the Phase III lupus nephritis program.

About Dry Eye in Dogs
Keratoconjunctivitis sicca (KCS or dry eye) is a common eye disease of dogs. This disease is characterized by inflammation of the lacrimal glands, resulting in reduced or absent tear formation and secondary bacterial conjunctivitis. If left untreated, damage to the tear glands is irreversible, leading to painful dry eye, and often leads to permanent blindness.

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What the hell is going on in here? Yall gambling with some penny stocks?

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occasionally.

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anything I should look at throwing some into for a short term?

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I like Rocket's MACK play for short term. AUPH for long.

MACK explained: They're paying a ~33% dividend next month... that ought to whet your appetite.

MACK, is that going to be a special dividend i assume?

Have a good link?

Assuming this, I dont know how i feel : LINK

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Oh yeah? For a bounce or long term?

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Long term.

I currently hold these as my long term stock "investments"
BAC-Y (just for the div)
GS
BRK.B
MSFT

I like Tesla, but I want another dip to buy in. Still kind of a gamble to me but in Elon/Thiel I trust.

It's not coming I think we're gonna see huge 100% or more revenue growth when they report q1 in 2 weeks

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I can't believe I bought a few shares at $198 last year and sold at $210...then had the opportunity to buy at $181

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Damn dude, that sucks.

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It's not coming I think we're gonna see huge 100% or more revenue growth when they report q1 in 2 weeks

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TSLA going past the moon, Andromeda next

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Welcome back Brother!

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IMNP

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Up 70% premarket. You still holding this from the split?