re: Weekly Stock Market Plays/Thoughts - March/April

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I'm scalping $JNUG today. In at $7.

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theres some weird shite going on with this one.

i havent played it in months, jumped in after the afghanistan bomb (expecting a spike), but i watched it fall (oddly)

and now direxion released a statement saying that the stock is suspended because they could not afford to pay for the supply. so now they are limiting supply, which theoretically, should increase demand.

guess we will see monday

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Can you explain the dividend situation with MACK? $1.06 dividend for all shareholders holding on may 17, as long as they hold until May 30?

Seems too good to be true.

Should I get in at current price? ~$3.10

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yep, thats the deal; only possible issue is that youll need to hold from may17-may30.

idk about the ideal entry point, the dividend date is still a ways off, it was in the low 3s all week so you might be able to get a better price if you are patient. the volume has been pretty low, so not much demand right now. with that said, i would say $3.10 is fine, as i do expect the stock to be much higher come May 17.

i was in much earlier so my avg is 3.40s so youd be in a much better position than me. i have 1000+ shares.

I can see three ways to play this dividend:
1) buy now and sell on the ride up
2) buy now and hold until dividend with the risk of a rapid decline in share price
3) forget the dividend and buy long term after the sell off. They seem to have a fairly promising pipeline.
Thoughts?

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What am I buying today? Nothing.
I've completely abandoned my long term strategy and maybe even all reason by placing fairly significant sums of money into AUPH. I'm hoping for a HUGE pay day within the next 18 months.

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It's a drug that has been proven to work that will conservatively produce 2 billion in sales per year based on the number of people with Lupus Nephritis that need a cure ( and the price of the drug).

The company is currently valued at 500 million, and a buyout should occur at 1.5 minimum, which equates to lower $20s per share. This is a conservative estimate.
I'm just waiting for the pay day. I was not discouraged at $6.50 so I bought more. Day to day news means nothing. It's all about the buyout.

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I know you think I hate you, but I really don't, I hope your trade works out, but this reeks of bagholder so hard. You sound like the guys on the yahoo finance boards back in the day when I was a kid first getting into the stock market. Read up on Anthony El Ghindy, he was the original microcap pumper on the internet.

Anyways hope AUPH works out for you, but I've seen countless small caps get large funds buy positions, do capital raises, and still flop. It was an expensive lesson I learned at a young age when I too dreamt of those 5-10x trades. I hope I'm wrong about AUPH but when you start saying you're going to focus on 1 name and you're confident that a buyout is coming at 3x the current price you begin to wonder why the smart money, guys like Steve Cohen,Kris Jenner, or the Baker Bros all big pharma investors aren't in the name.

Anyways best of luck, I'm watching in the distance and rooting for you whether you believe it or not.

I've got UNH, MA, and AMD on my watchlist for good entry points.

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Fair points DBF. The worst part is, I KNOW better than to do what I'm doing, but I'm doing it anyway! I self admittedly like the guys from iHub who last played the Ariad game for multiple years. It eventually worked out, and I think this one will too.

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I'll tell you one thing Ive learned in the market over the years, and its cost me alot of money to learn this lesson, and its you follow the big money in stocks, not the retail from Ihub or seeking alpha. What I mean is, I've posted multiple times about weird options trades and as you can see lots of these trades worked out. I posted once about some weird options activity in Panera Bread and it got bought out THAT AFTERNOON. I'm not gonna go back and look through my post history but its there.

What Im saying is, yes you probably aren't going to pay $300/mo like me for my service but there are some good follows on twitter who post a few weird options trades daily for free like Wall St Jesus or options hawk, those are two guys with big followings who post a couple awkward trades for free daily. I highly suggest focusing your efforts on those trades, perhaps not by buying the actually options bc by the time those guys post them, the IV has shot through the roof, but by buying common.

All Im saying is I too once was young, well Im still 36, but I once had those same ambitions of getting rich via 10 baggers in the stock market,and I just know alot of the time this stuff ends badly. Im not sure what its called and ill try to find a link but I know with biotechs especially there is some rule where if the market cap is sub $1B, the majority end up being busts and the study that came up with this concluded that most biotechs that achieved success, their market caps were bid up bc big money knew they were going to be a success.

It's actually called the Feurstein-Ratain Rule, I just googled and found it, here ill add some excerpts. I hate using seeking alpha as a source but thats the first site that came up with what I googled

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...we calculated the market capitalization (ie, the total shares outstanding times the price per share) for each company at 120 days before each of the public announcements using data derived from Supplementary Tables 1 and 2 in Rothenstein et al. and publically available information. This analysis demonstrated a remarkable difference between companies that had positive and negative announcements.

Specifically, the median market capitalization was approximately 80-fold greater for the companies with positive trials vs companies with negative trials ($17.8 billion vs $220 million, P < .001, two-sided Mann-Whitney test). There were no positive trials among the 21 micro-cap companies (ie, companies with less than $300 million market capitalization), whereas 21 of 27 studies reported by the larger companies analyzed (greater than $1 billion capitalization) were positive.

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When Dr. Mark Ratain and I came up with the concept for the F-R Rule in 2011, we were limited to analyzing a data set of 59 phase III oncology clinical trials conducted between 2000 and 2009.

For the update, I asked the research staff at BioMedTracker to help me bridge the gap between the initial analysis and the present by compiling a new list of phase III oncology studies conducted from 2009 through February 2014. BioMedTracker delivered to me a list of 72 oncology phase III trials. [These were the findings]:

Companies with a MC > $1B:

-37 pivotal P3 trials

-20 were positive (54%)

-17 were negative (46%)

Small cap companies (MC $300mm - $999mm):

-11 pivotal P3 trials

-6 were positive (55%)

-5 were negative (45%)

Micro cap companies (MC < $300mm)

-15 pivotal P3 trials

-0 were positive

-15 were negative

(9 not included in analysis because either privately held or could not determine MC).

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So just keep all this info in mind if you're going to hold through a set of data. I personally have avoided biotechs for years ever since I got hammered on multiple ones when I was in my early 20s. Again I hope this one works out for you, but please read this stuff I posted, here is the entire seeking alpha link if you want it

LINK

MMEX up 92%. FML.

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Small cap companies (MC $300mm - $999mm):

-11 pivotal P3 trials

-6 were positive (55%)

-5 were negative (45%)

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AUPH is in this category, not in the category with zero approvals.
The dry eye syndrome that I've been hearing about has legs. Merck just signed a licensing deal with Aurinia for Canine dry eye syndrome.
Show me reasons not to own THIS particular small cap and I'll sell all my shares. The positives seems to outweigh every time.

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“VOS has the potential to address significant unmet medical needs in ophthalmology, and the preliminary results of our canine dry eye trial are very promising,” says Holger Lehmann, DVM, PhD , Associate Vice President, Drug Discovery, Merck Animal Health. “We look forward to continuing our collaboration with Aurinia and believe this partnership is a prime example of the synergies that exist between human and animal health drug development for the benefit of all of our patients.”

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This is huge news! I figured AUPH would be slaughtering shorts in AH.