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re: What do you attribute the migration change to?
Posted on 10/14/16 at 5:55 pm to HogIslandDuckman
Posted on 10/14/16 at 5:55 pm to HogIslandDuckman
0
Posted on 10/14/16 at 6:30 pm to brmach
quote:
As you stated earlier, different species migrate for different reasons. That said, I think you're overestimating a little on the effects of weather. I hate to borrow a liberal talking point, but I think climate (i.e. sustained periods of subfreezing temperature/snow and ice) has more to do with it than individual cold fronts.
Sure cold fronts move birds around, but it doesn't seem like they do in the numbers that they used to.
My emphasis has not been on cold fronts though. I have referenced them, but overall, that is only a subset of the weather pattern. I have continuously referred to snow fall as a factor in migration. You are correct, cold fronts alone do not tell the whole story. All you are doing is reinforcing my point.
quote:
I think there's plenty of evidence to show that as long as they have access to food and, just as important, water then a lot of birds are content to stay right where they are.
Again, exactly my point. But, I think weather is the main factor in making food and water unavailable and drives the migration.
I did a little research into the topic of waste grain availability as an effect of post-harvest practices. I found one study that showed a 97-99% reduction in waste corn due to tillage practices. Although another interesting point I read was the reduction in available grain due to grazing of fields or planting of a cover crop.
As it relates to rice in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley of Missouri, Arkansas, and North Louisiana, there is actually very little grain left by the time waterfowl reach the area, due mainly to the inability to produce a second crop and deterioration of waste rice from the first crop.
The information out there is limited, although many agencies hype the benefits no-till practices have to wildlife. Still, many studies and reports hold to the idea that food availability is dependent on weather patterns. Heavy snowfall reduces the availability of food, and some even recommend the use of cattle to expose waste grain covered in snow.
The two definitely go hand in hand, but one obviously affects the other while the second has no effect on the first.
Posted on 10/14/16 at 6:36 pm to mach316
quote:
I'm not sure how the come up with these numbers, but they may have been a bit skewed due to scattered birds.
They have defined survey lines that they fly every year. Same lines every year. There is a reason they consider it an estimate though. They obviously aren't flying every area, and it doesn't account for birds in forested areas, which are difficult to survey.
However, I believe there was a lot of water in the flyway north of us, which definitely limits the number of birds coming down. An abundance of food and water and mild temperatures contributed to that low number. Last season was just mediocre, and I think the lack of cold weather and the abundance of water made it so.
If the dry pattern keeps up this year, and we get some birds down, they will be piled up. Not much water in the woods anymore, at least not in the basin.
Posted on 10/14/16 at 8:00 pm to White Bear
quote:This.
I think weather, evidenced by new species like tree ducks and white-wing doves
When I started hunting regularly as a teenager in the early 80's, there were no tree ducks or white-wing doves here. Now they're everywhere.
Posted on 10/14/16 at 8:10 pm to Palo Gaucho
quote:
duck dynasty, boom scouting, face paint wearing poser. They usually shoot 3.5 inch shells, run the ducks off with their loud arse mud motors in the afternoons, sky blast on the corners, show up at daylight, and generally just get in the way.
As much as I can empathize with your POV, you do realize someone, somewhere, once considered you a complete pain in the arse, in the way, noob fricktad too, right?
Posted on 10/14/16 at 8:16 pm to Cowboyfan89
Interesting website I stumbled upon early and have been playing around with.
Predicting Waterfowl Migration
The whole premise of the Weather Severity Index (WSI) is that migrations are a result of temperatures and snow coverage over consecutive days. If I am interpreting the data correctly, the maps do not directly illustrate migration. Rather, they illustrate the likelihood of migration based on temperature changes.
Although I have not found anything that directly says this, my assumption is that the "decreasing abundance areas" are those where the WSI is >= 7.2, which is the magic number for mallard migration in the WSI.
Predicting Waterfowl Migration
The whole premise of the Weather Severity Index (WSI) is that migrations are a result of temperatures and snow coverage over consecutive days. If I am interpreting the data correctly, the maps do not directly illustrate migration. Rather, they illustrate the likelihood of migration based on temperature changes.
Although I have not found anything that directly says this, my assumption is that the "decreasing abundance areas" are those where the WSI is >= 7.2, which is the magic number for mallard migration in the WSI.
Posted on 10/14/16 at 11:43 pm to AlxTgr
That's a Looooooooooong hike. Prolly not as deep as it once was though. Might get by w knee boots instead of waders.
Posted on 10/15/16 at 7:47 am to Mung
Depth shouldn't be any different. All depends on rain.
Posted on 10/15/16 at 10:35 am to Cowboyfan89
Some other posters have mentioned this but Mallards will hug the freeze line also. I've seen this in texas and Oklahoma several times over the last few seasons. They've learned to dry feed up north until their food sources are exhausted or covered with a large amount of snow. I've even seen them dry feed as far south as north texas before.
Posted on 10/15/16 at 10:49 am to Cowboyfan89
quote:
one obviously affects the other while the second has no effect on the first
That's not exactly true. Food sources obviously don't have an effect on weather patterns. At the same time though, more abundant food means that even more inclimate weather would be needed to cover it up than before.
Posted on 10/15/16 at 11:12 am to brmach
quote:
At the same time though, more abundant food means that even more inclimate weather would be needed to cover it up than before.
Are you trying to disprove my point? Because this doesn't do that.
I literally said weather affects food supplies, but not vice versa. Whether you have more food or not, weather will still affect the amount available.
Posted on 10/15/16 at 12:11 pm to Cowboyfan89
Food is the main force, but all the rest contribute.
Then, if you lose a couple generations the rest don't know to come down.
Then, if you lose a couple generations the rest don't know to come down.
Posted on 10/15/16 at 4:09 pm to Cowboyfan89
Not necessarily. Cover up was a poor choice of words on my part. The point I was trying to make is that ducks, particularly mallards, will pick through a certain amount of snow/ice if the amount of food they can get to is worth their while. The more abundant the food source, the more they're willing to tolerate. Obviously there comes a point where weather will become too much, but I believe that point is at a colder/deeper snowfall level than it used to be.
Posted on 10/15/16 at 4:49 pm to brmach
I don't get it. How many times are you going to reword the same idea and argue that it's not the same as what I have been saying?
This:
is literally what I have been saying. Eventually, the weather becomes too much, makes the food unavailable, and they have to move.
Arguing over the semantics of which one is more important is just arguing for the sake of arguing. The two are interrelated in the fact that weather will affect food availability at some point. That is generally accepted within the waterfowl research community as fact. Which one you put more emphasis on is up to you, but when a factor is independent of any other and impacts others, I tend to put more emphasis on this.
However, arguing that weather is not a factor in food availability, and then stating that they will only tolerate a certain amount of snow/cold is just contradicting yourself. I mean, you literally just said that at some point, due to weather becoming to harsh, the birds are going to move.
Just to recap, I don't disagree with your point on more extreme weather being required to make birds move (even if research shows otherwise). Honestly, it is irrelevant to my point. But your whole argument against my statement that weather affects food supplies has been that more extreme weather is required to impact it. No matter how you argue it, you are arguing the same thing that I stated. Weather, at some point, will impact food availability.
So, we are on the same idea, just speaking it in different languages. You're speaking specifically; I'm speaking in generalities.
This:
quote:
The point I was trying to make is that ducks, particularly mallards, will pick through a certain amount of snow/ice if the amount of food they can get to is worth their while. The more abundant the food source, the more they're willing to tolerate. Obviously there comes a point where weather will become too much, but I believe that point is at a colder/deeper snowfall level than it used to be.
is literally what I have been saying. Eventually, the weather becomes too much, makes the food unavailable, and they have to move.
Arguing over the semantics of which one is more important is just arguing for the sake of arguing. The two are interrelated in the fact that weather will affect food availability at some point. That is generally accepted within the waterfowl research community as fact. Which one you put more emphasis on is up to you, but when a factor is independent of any other and impacts others, I tend to put more emphasis on this.
However, arguing that weather is not a factor in food availability, and then stating that they will only tolerate a certain amount of snow/cold is just contradicting yourself. I mean, you literally just said that at some point, due to weather becoming to harsh, the birds are going to move.
Just to recap, I don't disagree with your point on more extreme weather being required to make birds move (even if research shows otherwise). Honestly, it is irrelevant to my point. But your whole argument against my statement that weather affects food supplies has been that more extreme weather is required to impact it. No matter how you argue it, you are arguing the same thing that I stated. Weather, at some point, will impact food availability.
So, we are on the same idea, just speaking it in different languages. You're speaking specifically; I'm speaking in generalities.
This post was edited on 10/15/16 at 4:55 pm
Posted on 10/15/16 at 7:54 pm to Cowboyfan89
I never said weather is not a factor. I just don't believe it is THE primary factor. Yes, weather can eventually neutralize the food. But if there were no food or limited food, such as the case was before farming practices changed, then it wouldn't matter what the weather is. It could have been 80 degrees and sunny, but if there was no food to eat, they had to leave.
Either way you look at it, to quote what old hunters used to tell me when I was a kid, "they just don't come down like they used to."
Either way you look at it, to quote what old hunters used to tell me when I was a kid, "they just don't come down like they used to."
Posted on 10/15/16 at 9:38 pm to bhtigerfan
LReynolds would add that the migration changes are happening in other regions of the world as well.
Posted on 10/16/16 at 10:50 am to HogIslandDuckman
Reading this thread makes me happy I got out the duck hunting game. Had some incredible timber hunts in north LA in the 90s.
Posted on 10/16/16 at 11:31 am to HogIslandDuckman
We hunted Pass Manchac years ago and had a spot that was covered up in green heads. We often talked about showing up late instead of being there to watch the sun come up and see if we'd still limited out. This went on for a number of years and then the next season came around and they birds were gone. We came up with all kinds of theories and never figured it out. We had the best hunting in the state during for awhile.
Posted on 10/17/16 at 12:29 am to AlxTgr
Once they opened the flow downstream, it never got as deep. Plus many years of stuff growing up in that open end will have it filled in.
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