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Started By
Message
re: College Football Week 1/Futures Bet Thread
Posted on 8/17/16 at 9:02 am to ChemE in the OP
Posted on 8/17/16 at 9:02 am to ChemE in the OP
quote:
For NFL I'm hooked on Net YPP differential with a factor and 'true' homefield adjustments...
see, i wouldnt even know how to set up a formula like this
1
Posted on 8/17/16 at 9:24 am to HailToTheChiz
quote:
I've yet to figure out what is actually "predicative", if anything.
Stats that do not take opponent or pace into account.
For example, rushing yards per game.
A team who rushes for 600 yards against Eastern Michigan, UTEP, and Alcorn State will have a 200 rushing yards per game average.
A team who rushes for 600 yards against Alabama, LSU, and Florida will have a 200 rushing yards per game average.
Clearly the 2nd team is more impressive, but both teams get treated equally - 200 rushing yards per game.
Then you have teams like Texas Tech. Average 500 yards of offense per game. But on how many plays? Averaging 500 yards of offense per game running 100 offensive plays. A team who averages 500 yards of offense per game running 60 plays. The 2nd team is more superior but both get treated the same = 500 yards of offense per game.
Posted on 8/17/16 at 9:25 am to goldennugget
this stuff is fascinating
Posted on 8/17/16 at 9:34 am to HailToTheChiz
For opening Thursday night:
WKU -16.5
SC/Vandy u42.5
WKU -16.5
SC/Vandy u42.5
Posted on 8/17/16 at 9:36 am to maclauer
quote:
WKU -16.5
My excel spreadsheets and my own capping are in love with this play as long as it is on the ride side of 17
If WKU still had Doughty this line is around 28 or so. Is he really worth 11 points? Because WKU returns pretty much everyone except Doughty.
Rice will be worse than last year, where they lost to WKY at home 49-10.
Posted on 8/17/16 at 9:42 am to goldennugget
I'm parlaying:
UGA -2.5
UCLA +2
UGA -2.5
UCLA +2
Posted on 8/17/16 at 9:50 am to Mac
quote:
Anyone use BetDSI.com?
I use DSI. Never had any problems with it and you won't have to worry about lines coming out late. I'm pretty sure they put them up Sunday night.
Posted on 8/17/16 at 10:04 am to rawDAWG333
quote:
I use DSI. Never had any problems with it and you won't have to worry about lines coming out late. I'm pretty sure they put them up Sunday night.
Is it some what easy to withdraw money from the site? I know some sites I've used in the past make it almost impossible. I'm looking for a new site, sportsbook has been pissing me off lately.
Posted on 8/17/16 at 10:54 am to Ed Osteen
last year a poster (accnodefense) posted some spreadsheets and simulation models. I enjoyed having those but I haven't seen him in this threat yet
Posted on 8/17/16 at 10:55 am to thibtigerfan
wasn't he the guy that was always wrong though? I might be thinking of another poster
Posted on 8/17/16 at 10:59 am to thibtigerfan
quote:I'm pretty sure his sheets turned to shite as the season went on. He started off hot though. I liked looking through them, hope he tries again this year.
last year a poster (accnodefense) posted some spreadsheets and simulation models. I enjoyed having those but I haven't seen him in this threat yet
Posted on 8/17/16 at 11:11 am to goldennugget
quote:
I'd be careful with sites like Sportsplays, BetLabs, and their "system creator" tools. The stats they use for the variables are elementary and not predicative at all.
I don't use any of their tools. I just do it on my own and use the site to place the bets and keep track of how I do.
quote:
Stats that do not take opponent or pace into account.
For example, rushing yards per game.
A team who rushes for 600 yards against Eastern Michigan, UTEP, and Alcorn State will have a 200 rushing yards per game average.
A team who rushes for 600 yards against Alabama, LSU, and Florida will have a 200 rushing yards per game average.
Clearly the 2nd team is more impressive, but both teams get treated equally - 200 rushing yards per game.
Then you have teams like Texas Tech. Average 500 yards of offense per game. But on how many plays? Averaging 500 yards of offense per game running 100 offensive plays. A team who averages 500 yards of offense per game running 60 plays. The 2nd team is more superior but both get treated the same = 500 yards of offense per game.
That's the general gist of what I do. Plus I'll weight it based on more recent performances.
quote:
there is always at least one every single year
I probably should have just left that line out. I would've been happy with 64%.Posted on 8/17/16 at 11:15 am to Mac
yea, but like the first 6 weeks they were hot. I would use them and just play the higher percentages. Did well early in the season with it. Of course the lower percentages probably started falling off earlier.
ETA: I hope he tries again too
ETA: I hope he tries again too
This post was edited on 8/17/16 at 11:16 am
Posted on 8/17/16 at 11:31 am to goldennugget
quote:
If WKU still had Doughty this line is around 28 or so. Is he really worth 11 points? Because WKU returns pretty much everyone except Doughty.
The projected starter at WKU is a transfer from USF who previously made 15 starts for them.. 2700 yards total but 11 TDs and 16 INTs.
Posted on 8/17/16 at 2:44 pm to thibtigerfan
quote:
last year a poster (accnodefense) posted some spreadsheets and simulation models. I enjoyed having those but I haven't seen him in this threat yet
yes, he is back posting under his original handle, "goldennugget"
Posted on 8/17/16 at 3:06 pm to Carson123987
quote:
yes, he is back posting under his original handle, "goldennugget"
If true, will you be posting the sheets Golden?
Posted on 8/17/16 at 3:18 pm to Carson123987
quote:
yes, he is back posting under his original handle, "goldennugget"
Posted on 8/17/16 at 5:33 pm to HailToTheChiz
im just glad aVa is banned and cant post in here screwing this thread up as usual.
Posted on 8/17/16 at 6:05 pm to oleyeller
This thread needs more quality posters like aVa, imo
#FreeaVa
#FreeaVa
This post was edited on 8/17/16 at 6:06 pm
Posted on 8/17/16 at 6:13 pm to rawDAWG333
I'm back, bitches.
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