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re: College Football Week 1/Futures Bet Thread
Posted on 8/18/16 at 12:42 am to mizzoubuckeyeiowa
Posted on 8/18/16 at 12:42 am to mizzoubuckeyeiowa
That Bama line is tempting. USC's coaching carousal gives me no confidence the talent will be fully utilized. USC also will be more reliant on the first year qb.
1
Posted on 8/18/16 at 7:49 am to LSUAlum2001
quote:
Does buying a half point on key numbers pay out in the long run?
No, the points are too expensive
As the poster below pointed out, only for parlays, but the thing about parlays is that they are already expensive and terrible values to begin with.
Posted on 8/18/16 at 7:51 am to LSUAlum2001
Buying points in college is almost always a bad idea. Points aren't valuable enough to justify it, even the key numbers. Same reason college teasers are long term losers
Posted on 8/18/16 at 7:56 am to LSUAlum2001
quote:
Does buying a half point on key numbers pay out in the long run?
The short answer is no. The % you pay for the half point is greater than the % of times it affects the outcome by a significant margin.
Posted on 8/18/16 at 8:00 am to DallasTiger45
quote:
Same reason college teasers are long term losers
Some may find this post offensive, mate.
Posted on 8/18/16 at 8:09 am to dgtiger3
quote:
Same reason college teasers are long term losers
Some may find this post offensive, mate.
where is winston
Posted on 8/18/16 at 8:14 am to DallasTiger45
quote:
Same reason college teasers are long term losers
If you have a good enough edge calculator(nearly impossible), you can make any kind of bet profitable in theory.
I know on my excel spreadsheets, besides calculating the edge for sides, I calculate the edge for 6, 6.5, 7, 10 and 13 point teaser bets.
The thing is the bar is much higher to clear.
To profit for a 6 point teaser, each leg must win 50.1% of the time. For 10 points each leg must win 81.8% of the time, and for 13 points each leg must win 85.8% of the time.
A profitable side bet may not be a profitable 13 point teaser bet, while a profitable 13 point teaser bet may not be a profitable side bet. There are several instances of that happening on my master sheet.
Posted on 8/18/16 at 8:14 am to DallasTiger45
quote:
Same reason college teasers are long term losers
this is a great point. it always struck me that nfl teasers are structured identical to college teasers. points are way more valuable in nfl than college. nfl is the only sport where i feel teasers aren't a horrible bet.
Posted on 8/18/16 at 8:18 am to oleyeller
Likely banned permanently. So abrasive.
Posted on 8/18/16 at 8:20 am to ChemE in the OP
quote:
Likely banned permanently. So abrasive.
He still posts on the poli board goy
Posted on 8/18/16 at 8:22 am to 632627
quote:
this is a great point. it always struck me that nfl teasers are structured identical to college teasers. points are way more valuable in nfl than college. nfl is the only sport where i feel teasers aren't a horrible bet.
Teasers in the NFL used to be good bets when the payout was +100 for a 2 team, 6 point play. But that's no longer the case.
If you saw my excel spreadsheets you'd see just exactly how bad teaser bets are in college, historically. BUT, if you have a good odds database to cross reference and edge calculator, you can find your spots if you really want to play them.
Posted on 8/18/16 at 8:35 am to 632627
quote:
this is a great point. it always struck me that nfl teasers are structured identical to college teasers. points are way more valuable in nfl than college. nfl is the only sport where i feel teasers aren't a horrible bet.
Read this I linked it last year as well. Over a 24 year span consisting of 6000 NFL games, the average difference between the spread and the actual final score in the NFL was 10 points. The highest single season difference in one individual season was 11 while the lowest was 9. This is why books allow teasers and also why it is a horrible idea to bet them, especially when considering the juice. Given the amount of blowouts in NCAA, that number is even higher for college games
Posted on 8/18/16 at 8:50 am to bisonduck
quote:
That Bama line is tempting. USC's coaching carousal gives me no confidence the talent will be fully utilized. USC also will be more reliant on the first year qb.
I agree. Bama is going to be so much more physical than USC at the line too. I trust Bama with a new QB more than USC
Posted on 8/18/16 at 8:57 am to goldennugget
Eagles +3 getting 42% of bets and 77% of money tonight, slight RLM.
Posted on 8/18/16 at 9:41 am to ChemE in the OP
Where do you find money info?
Posted on 8/18/16 at 9:46 am to Mac
Sports Insights, SBROdds.com
Posted on 8/18/16 at 12:27 pm to ChemE in the OP
It was Eagles +3 -105 this morning in my book.
Now it's Eagles +3 -120.
43% of the bets.
Now it's Eagles +3 -120.
43% of the bets.
Posted on 8/18/16 at 12:50 pm to jembeurt
I took it at +3 (+100) right after the 3.5s disappeared. Like the Bears too.
Posted on 8/18/16 at 3:56 pm to LSUAlum2001
quote:
Nebraska -29
Project LG starter went down in camp and will miss the Fresno State game. The OL was terribly inexperienced to begin with.
Posted on 8/18/16 at 6:29 pm to jembeurt
Good start.
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