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LSU Men's Track Favored to Win NCAA Title Based on Projected Scoring
Posted on 5/18/16 at 6:24 pm
Posted on 5/18/16 at 6:24 pm
LINK
Form chart ranks and scores the top 8 best performing athletes in each event. Meant to predict what the scoring would be if the NCAA meet in a month goes as expected.
However, this is a bit misleading. It's basically a 3 way tie with Texas A&M and Oregon. However LSU has more downward mobility from what's expected while Oregon and TAM have upward mobility or "sure-thing" points. Texas A&M has great field(outside of PV where they are conservatively ranked, field points are easier to predict than track) and Oregon has a distance runner who is head and shoulders above the field and a lock to score big in the 2 long distance events.
LSU is all sprints(including a 110 hurdler). Likely the best NCAA sprinting team ever. They have a legitimate chance of breaking both the 4x100 and 4x400 record. With 8 separate guys. No overlap. And in neither event(100 or 400) are they near as good as they are in the 200.
However, relays(particularly the 4x1) run the risk of a botched handoff somewhere amongst qualifications. Also, Texas A&M is ranked very conservatively in almost every event while LSU is pretty spot on. I think it will take at least 60 to win the meet. Possibly upper 60s which LSU doesn't really have the capability of doing.
Either way, it will be a fun championship season to watch. Next weekend is the first round of qualifying which is not really relevant outside of not dropping batons, falling over a hurdle, etc. Really interested fans can hope LSU get's a 800 or hammer throw guy through, but expecting any points there is a long-shot. Getting as many 100, 200, 400 guys in increases the chances, I guess. But anybody who can't qualify in this meet probably isn't scoring at nationals anyway. So its more about hoping there is no major screw up and hoping for one from A&M and Oregon to a lesser extent.
Form chart ranks and scores the top 8 best performing athletes in each event. Meant to predict what the scoring would be if the NCAA meet in a month goes as expected.
However, this is a bit misleading. It's basically a 3 way tie with Texas A&M and Oregon. However LSU has more downward mobility from what's expected while Oregon and TAM have upward mobility or "sure-thing" points. Texas A&M has great field(outside of PV where they are conservatively ranked, field points are easier to predict than track) and Oregon has a distance runner who is head and shoulders above the field and a lock to score big in the 2 long distance events.
LSU is all sprints(including a 110 hurdler). Likely the best NCAA sprinting team ever. They have a legitimate chance of breaking both the 4x100 and 4x400 record. With 8 separate guys. No overlap. And in neither event(100 or 400) are they near as good as they are in the 200.
However, relays(particularly the 4x1) run the risk of a botched handoff somewhere amongst qualifications. Also, Texas A&M is ranked very conservatively in almost every event while LSU is pretty spot on. I think it will take at least 60 to win the meet. Possibly upper 60s which LSU doesn't really have the capability of doing.
Either way, it will be a fun championship season to watch. Next weekend is the first round of qualifying which is not really relevant outside of not dropping batons, falling over a hurdle, etc. Really interested fans can hope LSU get's a 800 or hammer throw guy through, but expecting any points there is a long-shot. Getting as many 100, 200, 400 guys in increases the chances, I guess. But anybody who can't qualify in this meet probably isn't scoring at nationals anyway. So its more about hoping there is no major screw up and hoping for one from A&M and Oregon to a lesser extent.
This post was edited on 5/18/16 at 6:26 pm
Posted on 5/18/16 at 6:26 pm to TheSexecutioner
Doesn't Keith Hornsby's brother run track for Oregon?
Posted on 5/18/16 at 6:33 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
Doesn't Keith Hornsby's brother run track for Oregon?
He is a non-factor. At least in the sense of being relevant to Oregon's national championship scoring.
Posted on 5/18/16 at 8:11 pm to TheSexecutioner
What's also exciting is how young the team is. Pretty much all of our points will be coming back
Posted on 5/18/16 at 8:33 pm to tigerbait2010
If they could get better in the distance/field events, they would dominate. Yet, it says how great these guys are, when they do not have that, but are still competing for a National Championship.
Posted on 5/18/16 at 8:56 pm to TheSexecutioner
Bout time.... man do we miss Pat Henry
Posted on 5/18/16 at 9:01 pm to TheSexecutioner
Hoping LSU can sneak a PC in the top 10! I know their freshman PV kids going to be pretty good.
Posted on 5/18/16 at 9:02 pm to baseballmind1212
bring back Pat Henry
Posted on 5/18/16 at 9:28 pm to TigerBait55
quote:theres a good freshman there right now, dajour braxton, that has a ton of potential in the longer distance events.
If they could get better in the distance/field events
Posted on 5/19/16 at 12:40 am to TheSexecutioner
Great to hear.
Oregon usually runs away with the men's title, don't they?
Oregon usually runs away with the men's title, don't they?
Posted on 5/19/16 at 1:28 am to timlan2057
In 1933 they won it with 3 guys winning 4 Events!
Posted on 5/19/16 at 2:06 am to timlan2057
Yup. Their nickname is "track town"
Posted on 5/19/16 at 6:16 am to Pedro
quote:
theres a good freshman there right now, dajour braxton, that has a ton of potential in the longer distance events
Not really. He'll be a contributor in SEC meets. Where LSU isn't any good at anyway due to a lack of debt. But the chance of him ever scoring at NCAA is very very low.
Posted on 5/19/16 at 6:20 am to timlan2057
quote:
Great to hear.
Oregon usually runs away with the men's title, don't they?
The last 2 years they did. But that was their first time winning in 30 years. Florida has been the dominant team lately. Florida, Texas A&M, and Oregon are the top tier. They have accounted for 12 of the 14 1st and 2nd place finishes the last 7 years with LSU and FSU getting 1 each. Those 5 teams accounted for 20 out of 20 of the top 2 finishes the last 10 years. Will become 22 of 22 this year.
Posted on 5/19/16 at 7:15 am to TheSexecutioner
Oregon's Devon Allen will walk away with the 110h just like he did his Freshman year, if Jordan Moore can stay in his lane he should be able to score.
It still baffles me that LSU let Devin King, top Pole Vaulter in the country, go to Southeastern.
It still baffles me that LSU let Devin King, top Pole Vaulter in the country, go to Southeastern.
Posted on 5/19/16 at 8:57 am to TheSexecutioner
This is great to hear. Miss those days of national titles here.
Posted on 5/19/16 at 12:36 pm to Plankton
quote:
It still baffles me that LSU let Devin King, top Pole Vaulter in the country, go to Southeastern.
I'm sure they offered him a scholarship. I believe he followed a girlfriend or something.
Posted on 5/19/16 at 1:38 pm to Plankton
quote:
It still baffles me that LSU let Devin King, top Pole Vaulter in the country, go to Southeastern
It shouldn't. Erica Bartolina, his HS coach, was coaching at SELU when he signed there.
Posted on 5/19/16 at 3:15 pm to TheSexecutioner
Unfortunate.
It'll be boring to watch King Chez prance around with another NCAA team title and god knows how many individual titles he'll have when the season is over.
It'll be boring to watch King Chez prance around with another NCAA team title and god knows how many individual titles he'll have when the season is over.
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