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Message
Trade Deadline - Things to consider
Posted on 2/19/16 at 11:18 am
Posted on 2/19/16 at 11:18 am
I know this will immediately get shot down by the "Dale Dempz is the worst!" crowd, but a couple important points:
- You can't start any criticism with "X got Y for Z, so why didn't Dell do that?" The easy answer is that the offer was not made to Demps, it was made to X. Assuming otherwise is faulty logic. Each deal is unique and situations are not the same. Anderson had very specific circumstances that made him hard to move (see next point).
- Not one player who will be an unrestricted free agent and is due for a big pay day was traded despite names getting thrown around constantly. Those players include: Ryno, Horford, Pau Gasol, and Dwight Howard. As several people (including Marc Stein) noted, teams were just not interested in giving up assets to sign someone they can sign in the offseason.
- There were several teams mentioned as having interest in Ryan Anderson for the stretch run (WAS, CLE, & TOR). Washington was not going to give up assets for 29 games of Ryno and they had no interest in re-signing him because they are chasing Durant. In fact, they took a risk on a guy with pending battery charges who just choked a teammate during a game because of the fact that he is locked in a a well below-market deal for the next couple seasons. CLE ended up with a Ryno-lite and only did so because POR was willing to take on Anderson Varejao's salary (one year guaranteed after this one). I can guarantee Demps was not taking back long term $ in any deal, at least not for an older player.
- Before you bring up Jeff Green, Jeff Green does not belong in the group of pending free agents above. He has failed to improve two different teams that traded for him and is two years older than Anderson. His salary demands will not be quite the same. All of that goes without mentioning that the deal was been universally panned for LAC and Doc is widely considered one of the worst GMs in the league.
-There has not been one report that the Pelicans turned down any decent offers for Anderson. Not one. There was a report from a CLE beat writer saying that the asking price for Anderson was too high for CLE. Keep in mind where that information is coming from. After being rumored to chase Anderson, the Cavs ended up with a 5/8 version of him and had to give up a late first rounder to do it. They need to justify that to their fans. To me that means "exorbitant" = "not wanting to take back Andy V's contract."
- What exactly is Demps' motivation to hold on to Ryan Anderson if he could get any value for him? This is main thing I don't understand about the outrage here. Does anyone really think Demps believes his job status is so unsteady that the 2-5 more wins that Anderson might net you will save his job? I just don't see it. Even if you believe the asking price was too high at the onset of the week, do you believe he would just not lower it as the deadline approached? If not, what is the motivation there? Spite? Pride? I don't buy it. It wasn't widely reported, but Demps was extended last summer. I don't think he is on as shaky of ground as many of you believe (or hope).
-Most people said going into this deadline that it would be a dud and that is precisely what happened. The new CBA and exploding cap next year just made it hard for any big deals to get done. The Pels were far from the only team that did not move pieces that were widely reported as being shopped aggressively.
I know it is easier to just yell about someone sucking at their job, but the stuff above matters. The Stokes trade was a complete win for Demps, it just isn't as exciting as people wanted. If you were going into this deadline expecting big, exciting things, you weren't paying attention all year and you were setting yourself up for disappointment. There are plenty of things to criticize Demos for. The Asik signing has been an unmitigated failure from almost day 1. You could easily argue we gave up too much for Jrue. Some people don't like the Tyreke signing (though we don't make the playoffs last yaer w/o him). There is ammo there. However, Demps not making some trade for Ryan Anderson that you made up in your head is not one of those things. Would I have liked to get a young wing player, or a 1st round pick for Anderson? Sure, but that didn't happen and it looks like it was never a big possibility. Now we get to enjoy 29 more games of Anderson in a Pels uniform and I am okay with that. With Anderson and Gordon expiring, the team will have a little bit of money to throw around and try to move forward from this season.
- You can't start any criticism with "X got Y for Z, so why didn't Dell do that?" The easy answer is that the offer was not made to Demps, it was made to X. Assuming otherwise is faulty logic. Each deal is unique and situations are not the same. Anderson had very specific circumstances that made him hard to move (see next point).
- Not one player who will be an unrestricted free agent and is due for a big pay day was traded despite names getting thrown around constantly. Those players include: Ryno, Horford, Pau Gasol, and Dwight Howard. As several people (including Marc Stein) noted, teams were just not interested in giving up assets to sign someone they can sign in the offseason.
- There were several teams mentioned as having interest in Ryan Anderson for the stretch run (WAS, CLE, & TOR). Washington was not going to give up assets for 29 games of Ryno and they had no interest in re-signing him because they are chasing Durant. In fact, they took a risk on a guy with pending battery charges who just choked a teammate during a game because of the fact that he is locked in a a well below-market deal for the next couple seasons. CLE ended up with a Ryno-lite and only did so because POR was willing to take on Anderson Varejao's salary (one year guaranteed after this one). I can guarantee Demps was not taking back long term $ in any deal, at least not for an older player.
- Before you bring up Jeff Green, Jeff Green does not belong in the group of pending free agents above. He has failed to improve two different teams that traded for him and is two years older than Anderson. His salary demands will not be quite the same. All of that goes without mentioning that the deal was been universally panned for LAC and Doc is widely considered one of the worst GMs in the league.
-There has not been one report that the Pelicans turned down any decent offers for Anderson. Not one. There was a report from a CLE beat writer saying that the asking price for Anderson was too high for CLE. Keep in mind where that information is coming from. After being rumored to chase Anderson, the Cavs ended up with a 5/8 version of him and had to give up a late first rounder to do it. They need to justify that to their fans. To me that means "exorbitant" = "not wanting to take back Andy V's contract."
- What exactly is Demps' motivation to hold on to Ryan Anderson if he could get any value for him? This is main thing I don't understand about the outrage here. Does anyone really think Demps believes his job status is so unsteady that the 2-5 more wins that Anderson might net you will save his job? I just don't see it. Even if you believe the asking price was too high at the onset of the week, do you believe he would just not lower it as the deadline approached? If not, what is the motivation there? Spite? Pride? I don't buy it. It wasn't widely reported, but Demps was extended last summer. I don't think he is on as shaky of ground as many of you believe (or hope).
-Most people said going into this deadline that it would be a dud and that is precisely what happened. The new CBA and exploding cap next year just made it hard for any big deals to get done. The Pels were far from the only team that did not move pieces that were widely reported as being shopped aggressively.
I know it is easier to just yell about someone sucking at their job, but the stuff above matters. The Stokes trade was a complete win for Demps, it just isn't as exciting as people wanted. If you were going into this deadline expecting big, exciting things, you weren't paying attention all year and you were setting yourself up for disappointment. There are plenty of things to criticize Demos for. The Asik signing has been an unmitigated failure from almost day 1. You could easily argue we gave up too much for Jrue. Some people don't like the Tyreke signing (though we don't make the playoffs last yaer w/o him). There is ammo there. However, Demps not making some trade for Ryan Anderson that you made up in your head is not one of those things. Would I have liked to get a young wing player, or a 1st round pick for Anderson? Sure, but that didn't happen and it looks like it was never a big possibility. Now we get to enjoy 29 more games of Anderson in a Pels uniform and I am okay with that. With Anderson and Gordon expiring, the team will have a little bit of money to throw around and try to move forward from this season.
7
Posted on 2/19/16 at 11:29 am to LSUhornet17
Thanks really needed that perspective
Posted on 2/19/16 at 11:31 am to LSUhornet17
Yup on most of this, but
How is that a "complete win?"
quote:
The Stokes trade was a complete win for Demps,
How is that a "complete win?"
Posted on 2/19/16 at 11:32 am to LSUhornet17
Its a well thought out and reasonable post.
People can still be ticked off that we did nothing to move us forward to what most of see as inevitable: a blow up.
People can still be ticked off that we did nothing to move us forward to what most of see as inevitable: a blow up.
Posted on 2/19/16 at 11:34 am to corndeaux
quote:
How is that a "complete win?"
Well what exactly is the downside of it? Pels gave up nothing and got cash to essentially pay BDJ's salary.
This post was edited on 2/19/16 at 11:36 am
Posted on 2/19/16 at 11:37 am to LSUhornet17
quote:
Well what exactly is the downside of it?
The trade had almost no effect, good or bad, on anything from what I can tell. Did trading for, then releasing, Stokes free up $$ for Jones? Legit question
I have no problem with it. At all. I agree with your post- lots of naive expectations about Anderson. I just don't think this trade is something to be celebrated or anything.
ETA- see the Jones answer above. Thanks
This post was edited on 2/19/16 at 11:39 am
Posted on 2/19/16 at 11:47 am to corndeaux
My biggest problem with what did or didn't happen with the trade deadline is we still don't know what direction they want to go. We do have reason to believe they are out of Win Now mode based on what Ryno wasn't traded for, but we still don't know that they are headed in the right direction or even a generally good direction.
Posted on 2/19/16 at 11:47 am to LSUhornet17
quote:
- What exactly is Demps' motivation to hold on to Ryan Anderson if he could get any value for him? This is main thing I don't understand about the outrage here. Does anyone really think Demps believes his job status is so unsteady that the 2-5 more wins that Anderson might net you will save his job? I just don't see it. Even if you believe the asking price was too high at the onset of the week, do you believe he would just not lower it as the deadline approached? If not, what is the motivation there? Spite? Pride? I don't buy it. It wasn't widely reported, but Demps was extended last summer. I don't think he is on as shaky of ground as many of you believe (or hope).
I think a huge thing you fail to mention is that these extra wins also decrease your draft position. We need an impact player at a position of need on a rookie contact. Statistically speaking, the better draft pick you have the better chance of hitting on that player is.
Posted on 2/19/16 at 11:52 am to LSUhornet17
Yea.. You get to enjoy more meaningless wins too. Anderson will explode the rest of the year to boost his appeal in free agency.
Posted on 2/19/16 at 11:58 am to PatrickPeterson501
quote:
I think a huge thing you fail to mention is that these extra wins also decrease your draft position. We need an impact player at a position of need on a rookie contact. Statistically speaking, the better draft pick you have the better chance of hitting on that player is.
I dont want to jump a spot or two in the draft if it means we take on a really shitty contract like Varejoa.
We will still have a good if not great pick. Dont want to marginally improve our position in exchange for something that negates the cap benefits of getting a good rookie.
Posted on 2/19/16 at 11:59 am to PatrickPeterson501
quote:
I think a huge thing you fail to mention is that these extra wins also decrease your draft position. We need an impact player at a position of need on a rookie contact. Statistically speaking, the better draft pick you have the better chance of hitting on that player is.
Statistically speaking, once you get out of the top 2-3, the draft is a complete crap shoot. Pels were never getting that high as long as Davis is healthy. They aren't shutting him down to move up 1 or 2 spots. The odds of you getting even a starting caliber player outside the top 5 are not good at all. Again, 2-5 games (and that may seriously be overstating his impact, Hollinger's Estimate Wins Added for Anderson this year is 4.4 through 51 games, so for the remaining 29 games it is doubtful he moves the needle even that much) isn't changing much of anything.
And all of this goes without mentioning that nothing you said makes it easier to trade Anderson, it is just a reason you wanted him traded. It does not change any of the reasons I mentioned for why he probably did not get moved. We all know why it was a good idea to try to trade Anderson. My post was about why I think it didn't happen.
Posted on 2/19/16 at 12:00 pm to supe12sta12z
quote:
Yea.. You get to enjoy more meaningless wins too. Anderson will explode the rest of the year to boost his appeal in free agency.
What evidence at all suggests Ryno hasn't already been trying his best to increase his value this season. To think that he will perform significantly better going forward than is something boom would say.
Posted on 2/19/16 at 12:03 pm to TigerinATL
quote:
My biggest problem with what did or didn't happen with the trade deadline is we still don't know what direction they want to go.
I'm with you there. I think these 29 games will matter to the FO. There will be an evaluation on if the team is improving or if the struggles continue. I think we don't know the direction of the team because they don't either. Now that no moves can be made til after the season, they will use this time to hopefully figure out how to move forward. No matter what, I think we can expect to see many changes in the offseason, it will just be a little later than many hoped.
Posted on 2/19/16 at 12:26 pm to LSUhornet17
quote:
- You can't start any criticism with "X got Y for Z, so why didn't Dell do that?" The easy answer is that the offer was not made to Demps, it was made to X. Assuming otherwise is faulty logic. Each deal is unique and situations are not the same. Anderson had very specific circumstances that made him hard to move (see next point).
That is a two way street. Assuming no offers were made for Anderson at any point because no trade was made is also faulty logic. You have no idea if Was offered a protected first or future seconds and Dell rejected it because he thought he should get betetr.
quote:
Not one player who will be an unrestricted free agent and is due for a big pay day was traded despite names getting thrown around constantly. Those players include: Ryno, Horford, Pau Gasol, and Dwight Howard. As several people (including Marc Stein) noted, teams were just not interested in giving up assets to sign someone they can sign in the offseason.
Horford, Gasol, and Howard are all on teams that are currently slotted in the playoffs. What is their incentive to sell for cheap? Stein said that Ryno had plenty of pursuers. I cannot believe that he had so much interest, but not one was willing to give back anything. Hell we could have traded him to Cleveland for a 2nd and a TPE.
quote:
There were several teams mentioned as having interest in Ryan Anderson for the stretch run (WAS, CLE, & TOR). Washington was not going to give up assets for 29 games of Ryno and they had no interest in re-signing him because they are chasing Durant. In fact, they took a risk on a guy with pending battery charges who just choked a teammate during a game because of the fact that he is locked in a a well below-market deal for the next couple seasons. CLE ended up with a Ryno-lite and only did so because POR was willing to take on Anderson Varejao's salary (one year guaranteed after this one). I can guarantee Demps was not taking back long term $ in any deal, at least not for an older player.
WAS could have fit Durant even with Ryno's caphold this offseason with a $92M cap or let him go. You are making assumptions about why WAS signed Morris. We don't know why tehy took Morris. Maybe our askign price for Ryno was too high as some reporters remarked. We could ahve done the same deal with Portland getting Varaeijo as Orlando did with Cleveland. We could have gotten a 2nd from CLE or Portland and a TPE, but we thought that value was too low.
quote:
There has not been one report that the Pelicans turned down any decent offers for Anderson. Not one. There was a report from a CLE beat writer saying that the asking price for Anderson was too high for CLE. Keep in mind where that information is coming from. After being rumored to chase Anderson, the Cavs ended up with a 5/8 version of him and had to give up a late first rounder to do it. They need to justify that to their fans. To me that means "exorbitant" = "not wanting to take back Andy V's contract."
There were several reports leading up to the deadline and through the deadline that the PElicans asking price was too high. We don't know what the offers were, but I think it is safe we can assume the CLE deal for FRYE was on the table. Again you keep citing Andy V's contract, but that went to Portland and Portland sent a 2nd to ORL. So ORL took on no money next year, got a 2nd, and got a TPE.
quote:
What exactly is Demps' motivation to hold on to Ryan Anderson if he could get any value for him? This is main thing I don't understand about the outrage here. Does anyone really think Demps believes his job status is so unsteady that the 2-5 more wins that Anderson might net you will save his job? I just don't see it. Even if you believe the asking price was too high at the onset of the week, do you believe he would just not lower it as the deadline approached? If not, what is the motivation there? Spite? Pride? I don't buy it. It wasn't widely reported, but Demps was extended last summer. I don't think he is on as shaky of ground as many of you believe (or hope).
I think Demps overplayed his hand and was asking too much. He could have dropped the price and gotten a 2nd and TPE, but didn't because he likes his roster and he wants to make a run at resigning Anderson in the offseason. I believe he also thinks they can get close enough to a playoff spot that he can blame the down year on injuries. Demps is most certainly on shaky ground. He made a power play and got Monte moved. It is now seen that coaching was not the issue with Demps' roster. His extension was 1 year.
quote:
Most people said going into this deadline that it would be a dud and that is precisely what happened. The new CBA and exploding cap next year just made it hard for any big deals to get done. The Pels were far from the only team that did not move pieces that were widely reported as being shopped aggressively.
There were reported buyers earlier in the season, but we were still under the mistaken impression that we could get a playoff spot depsite our dismal start. We also did not need big deals. We needed to move assets that are going to be gone next year. Gordon was not happening because of his salary and kicker, but we could ahve moved Anderson, Dell just didn't like the price. We could have made our roster worse in the short term to improve in the draft, gotten a 2nd, and a TPE for a player we shouldn't resign, but Dell still believes in his roster.
quote:
The Stokes trade was a complete win for Demps, it just isn't as exciting as people wanted. If you were going into this deadline expecting big, exciting things, you weren't paying attention all year and you were setting yourself up for disappointment.
The Stokes trade was a decent win until Demps held onto Babbit for the end of the bench spot and cut a young prospect on a cheap contract with team options. We could have played Stokes to end the season to try him out and see if he could be a valuable rotation guy or create some trade value. IF he was not good, there is no issue and you cut him. It costs $80k and some minutes to see if he can play.
quote:
Now we get to enjoy 29 more games of Anderson in a Pels uniform and I am okay with that.
Short sighted thinking
This post was edited on 2/19/16 at 12:28 pm
Posted on 2/19/16 at 12:31 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
I dont want to jump a spot or two in the draft if it means we take on a really shitty contract like Varejoa.
We will still have a good if not great pick. Dont want to marginally improve our position in exchange for something that negates the cap benefits of getting a good rookie.
Why do people keep saying this? Did ORL take on Varejao's contract? No. They traded Frye and got a 2nd from Portland or CLE and I think a TPE.
This post was edited on 2/19/16 at 12:32 pm
Posted on 2/19/16 at 12:39 pm to LSUhornet17
quote:
Statistically speaking, once you get out of the top 2-3, the draft is a complete crap shoot.
Top 6 last year:
KAT
Russell
Okafor
Porzingis
HEzonja
WCS
Top 6 of 2014:
Wiggins
Parker
Embiid
Gordon
Exum
Smart
Which ones don't you want on this team ona rookie scale contract as the cap explodes? Chances of getting at least a role player on a cheap contract are pretty good for top 5. On top of that you have much better odds of landing a 1-3 pick from the 5-6 spot compared to 10-14.
This post was edited on 2/19/16 at 1:07 pm
Posted on 2/19/16 at 1:11 pm to JohnnyKilroy
You assumed that all on your own.
But his future is clear now. No trade happened. All he can do now is inflat his value for free agency. Especially now that this team is pretty much out of the playoffs.
But his future is clear now. No trade happened. All he can do now is inflat his value for free agency. Especially now that this team is pretty much out of the playoffs.
Posted on 2/19/16 at 2:22 pm to NOFOX
quote:
That is a two way street. Assuming no offers were made for Anderson at any point because no trade was made is also faulty logic. You have no idea if Was offered a protected first or future seconds and Dell rejected it because he thought he should get betetr.
I am not assuming that. My assumption is that Dell would not turn down any decent offer. Why would you assume otherwise? Again, that is in my original post. There is zero motivation for Dell to turn down a deal where we come away with assets.
quote:
Horford, Gasol, and Howard are all on teams that are currently slotted in the playoffs. What is their incentive to sell for cheap? Stein said that Ryno had plenty of pursuers. I cannot believe that he had so much interest, but not one was willing to give back anything. Hell we could have traded him to Cleveland for a 2nd and a TPE.
Every single one of those guys was heavily rumored to be seriously shopped. Multiple reports have said Howard and Harden don't want to play together. CHI and HOU are right on the playoff bubble (HOU is tied w/ Utah) and both are trending in the wrong direction. CHI has lost 5 straight. Also, Cleveland could not take in Ryan's salary without sending some out. Cleveland sent a PG to ORL and Varejao to POR to make it work. Also, if we're being honest, I'd rather hold onto Anderson and his bird rights over taking back what will be the 59th pick in the draft. That pick is essentially worthless.
quote:
WAS could have fit Durant even with Ryno's caphold this offseason with a $92M cap or let him go. You are making assumptions about why WAS signed Morris. We don't know why tehy took Morris. Maybe our askign price for Ryno was too high as some reporters remarked. We could ahve done the same deal with Portland getting Varaeijo as Orlando did with Cleveland. We could have gotten a 2nd from CLE or Portland and a TPE, but we thought that value was too low.
I'm not assuming anything. Reporters in WAS have said as much. They were not interested in a rental. Also, "reporters" haven't said the asking price was too high, one reporter from Cleveland did, and I addressed that already.Additionally, his caphold means jack. They couldn't sign both guys and were not interested in giving up assets for 29 games of Ryan Anderson. You also keep ignoring the fact that Dell has ZERO incentive to turn down any offers that do not send guaranteed salary back. Frye is under contract for two more years for less than half of what Ryan will be making. Those situations are not equivalent.
quote:
There were several reports leading up to the deadline and through the deadline that the PElicans asking price was too high. We don't know what the offers were, but I think it is safe we can assume the CLE deal for FRYE was on the table. Again you keep citing Andy V's contract, but that went to Portland and Portland sent a 2nd to ORL. So ORL took on no money next year, got a 2nd, and got a TPE.
Please provide those reports. There were zero saying this. There was one, after the deadline, that I addressed. I've already addressed why Frye is not equivalent to Anderson.
quote:
Dell just didn't like the price.
Again, why wouldn't he just sell to the highest bidder if deals like that were available? This is nonsense. I am assuming this offer was not made based on logic. You are assuming it was made because you believe Dell is completely incompetent at his job. I know which one is more likely.
quote:
The Stokes trade was a decent win until Demps held onto Babbit for the end of the bench spot and cut a young prospect on a cheap contract with team options.
Babbitt is guaranteed for next year, why would you cut him just to pay him to not play? Also, the trade is not good because they cut a guy they gave up literally nothing for? Wonderful logic there. You can contort this stuff any way you like it, but it still won't make sense. You can not think Dell is a good GM and want him fired, that's an easily defensible position. Faulting him for not making a trade that you made up in your head is just silly.
Posted on 2/19/16 at 2:23 pm to NOFOX
Yes because the most accurate way to judge the probability of landing a contributor in the draft is to use a sample size of 2. Outstanding logic there.
Posted on 2/19/16 at 2:39 pm to LSUhornet17
quote:
Babbitt is guaranteed for next year
Didn't realize that either. Good to know.
Still think it's a little disappointing to cut Stokes. No expectation that he would even be a role player, but I'd rather a flier on him than Ajinca guaranteed for the next 3 years.
And, again, nothing to rend garments over one way or the other.
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