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re: Trade Deadline - Things to consider

Posted on 2/19/16 at 2:40 pm to
Posted by NOSHAU
Member since Feb 2012
13707 posts
Posted on 2/19/16 at 2:40 pm to
quote:

Yes because the most accurate way to judge the probability of landing a contributor in the draft is to use a sample size of 2. Outstanding logic there.
It's the most recent 2. What are your chances of getting a contributor by letting your pending FA players walk for nothing?
Posted by NOFOX
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2014
10128 posts
Posted on 2/19/16 at 2:55 pm to
quote:

I am not assuming that. My assumption is that Dell would not turn down any decent offer. Why would you assume otherwise? Again, that is in my original post. There is zero motivation for Dell to turn down a deal where we come away with assets.


Define a decent offer? You are assuming that there is no way Dell would turn down a late first or seconds for Ryno. Why? I think Dell still wants to win this season. Why would Dell trade a player who amkes them better this year if he thinks he could be let go? You are making the same type of assumptions that others are making about his motiviations and what was available for Ryno.

quote:

Every single one of those guys was heavily rumored to be seriously shopped. Multiple reports have said Howard and Harden don't want to play together. CHI and HOU are right on the playoff bubble (HOU is tied w/ Utah) and both are trending in the wrong direction. CHI has lost 5 straight.


Those teams are still in the playoff hunt and probably will make it. CHI will get back players and make it. Hou will make it and Howard's salary is a lot more difficult to move.

quote:

Also, Cleveland could not take in Ryan's salary without sending some out. Cleveland sent a PG to ORL and Varejao to POR to make it work. Also, if we're being honest, I'd rather hold onto Anderson and his bird rights over taking back what will be the 59th pick in the draft. That pick is essentially worthless.



Cleveland had a $10M+ TPE from the Mosgov trade which they could have used to absorb Ryan unless they were, but they sent Varejao to Portland to save luxury tax which they still would have done. TPE, 2nd, and increased draft position is better fo the team long term, but now we get to let Dell consider overpaying Anderson. Short sighted move.

quote:

I'm not assuming anything. Reporters in WAS have said as much. They were not interested in a rental. Also, "reporters" haven't said the asking price was too high, one reporter from Cleveland did, and I addressed that already.Additionally, his caphold means jack. They couldn't sign both guys and were not interested in giving up assets for 29 games of Ryan Anderson. You also keep ignoring the fact that Dell has ZERO incentive to turn down any offers that do not send guaranteed salary back. Frye is under contract for two more years for less than half of what Ryan will be making. Those situations are not equivalent.



Again, you don't know what WAS offered for Ryan. Dell may have felt seconds or a highly protected first or Oubre were too light. We don't know. We can say that he likely was offered the 2nd and a TPE via the Cleveland deal without taking back salary. Wizards could have signed Durant and Anderson. Go read the Bullets blogpost on their cap situation. You think Cleveland wanted Frye over Ryno? You honestly think they wanted Frye's extra years? They settled for Frye because Dell wanted too much. Dell didn't sell to the highest bidder for the same reason you wouldn't take a second. He would prefer 30 games of Ryan playing and trying to win and his bird rights than not have him on the team and a second.

quote:

Babbitt is guaranteed for next year, why would you cut him just to pay him to not play? Also, the trade is not good because they cut a guy they gave up literally nothing for? Wonderful logic there.

Babbit is only partially guaranteed next year ($200k) and Tony Douglas is not. Both of them could be waived and the team still would have made money on the deal. Also I said the Stokes trade was decent until Stokes was cut, then it became wholly neutral. How did the trade help the team in the short or long term for basketball purposes? It is a sneaky good A+ move because we got some cash from it???? The only way you can say it was good for basketball purposes is if you assume that without the trade our organization would have been too cheap to sign BDJ. That is not the case.

quote:

You can contort this stuff any way you like it, but it still won't make sense. You can not think Dell is a good GM and want him fired, that's an easily defensible position.Faulting him for not making a trade that you made up in your head is just silly.


And you can fellate Dell's moves and stand up for him all you want, but the fact of the matter is that moving Ryan for even minute value (even if it is below what you think he is worth) would have been more beneficial to the team than retaining him. Keeping Stokes and cutting Babbit or Douglas also is a risk worth taking for a lost season. If their is a 10% chance he can be a role player, then it is worth it. And I don't have to make up trades. Do you think that CLE which is in win now mode wanted Frye over Love? Do you believe Cleveland made no offer for Ryan including just a 2nd and perhaps a TPE?
This post was edited on 2/19/16 at 3:00 pm
Posted by NOFOX
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2014
10128 posts
Posted on 2/19/16 at 3:08 pm to
quote:

Yes because the most accurate way to judge the probability of landing a contributor in the draft is to use a sample size of 2. Outstanding logic there.


I'm sorry is the most accurate way to simply proclaim that statistically speaking outside of 2-3 is a crapshoot? So there is no difference between 6 and 12? Let's see your satistical analysis.

If you want to discuss statistics then at 5-6 you have considerably better odds of getting picks #1-3 as opposed to if you finish 10-12.
Posted by NOLA Bronco
Member since Dec 2014
1898 posts
Posted on 2/19/16 at 3:13 pm to
You can't say on one hand assune Dell would take any decent offer it existed and then later on concede that Dell was asking too much in at least one trade when quoting reporters.

Unless we are defining decent as what Dell wants.
Posted by LSUhornet17
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2011
242 posts
Posted on 2/19/16 at 3:19 pm to
The Cavs were already 20+ mil over the luxury tax. You are insane if you think they would just add Anderson's salary on top of that, even if they could use a TPE to absorb it. Cleveland could not make any deal without sending out that salary, and it's quite possible they didn't want to send anything out for a rental. Frye is signed for two more years at modest money after this season. Again, that is not at all equivalent with Ryan Anderson. Assuming they would just do the same deal is ignorant.

quote:

I think Dell still wants to win this season.


This is what it boils down to. If you honestly believe Dell turned down ANY assets so Ryan Anderson can help the Pels win maybe 3 more games in a lost season, I can't help you. Have fun being miserable.
Posted by LSUhornet17
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2011
242 posts
Posted on 2/19/16 at 3:34 pm to
I don't remember conceding that. I said that a CLE reporter cited a team source saying Dell asked too much for Anderson after they signed a worse player.
Posted by mm2316
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Aug 2010
6942 posts
Posted on 2/19/16 at 3:41 pm to
quote:

You are making the same type of assumptions that others are making about his motiviations and what was available for Ryno.

IMO, you nailed this entire post, but this has been my main argument. I definitely understand what the OP is saying, which is pretty much the same as the BSS guys have been saying. However, you can't say "Well we don't know what was offered" and then turn around and say "Well 'this or that' definitely wasn't offered."

To me, even a 2nd round pick for Ryno would have been a win. It makes sense for the long term (getting SOMETHING while not taking back salary), while making you slightly worse this year and setting you up for a better draft pick. I have a hard time believing that, even for a rental, no team would give a 2nd, or a protected future 1st, or even a swapping of picks. Especially a team like Toronto with a gaping hole at the 4, but are currently highly competitive.

This team CANNOT afford to re-sign Anderson for what he is going to sign for this offseason. A sign-and-trade is always a possibility, but we're more likely to get the equivalent of Gustavo Ayon, rather than RoLo and Vasquez.

quote:

It is a sneaky good A+ move because we got some cash from it???? The only way you can say it was good for basketball purposes is if you assume that without the trade our organization would have been too cheap to sign BDJ. That is not the case.

I can't believe the praise that deal has gotten. Sure, it isn't a BAD move at all, but Jesus... We made a move which netted the billionaire owner $350k. Do people really care about that? I get we used that money to sign BJD, but we should have signed him either way. I really don't care that Benson saved money.

My overall gripe about our inactivity wasn't just about Ryno, but also that we did nothing to gain future assets. We have those two 2nds from the Ish trade- Could we not have used those to get a young player on a rookie deal that another team isn't using much (Snell, McLemore, etc.)? Considering the way we used our 2nd the previous few year (Russ Smith, Pierre Jackson, selling one to the Clippers), turning that into a young prospect would be a better use.

I admit that no moves are better than a bad move, but we really aren't a team that can afford to stand idle. If Loomis/Benson are putting restrictions on Dell, then he should have been fired by now, and someone they trust enough to make moves (Dumars?) should have that position.

Nate Duncan put it best, we do nothing to gain assets, while do nothing to to set ourselves up for a better pick this year.
This post was edited on 2/19/16 at 3:58 pm
Posted by NOFOX
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2014
10128 posts
Posted on 2/19/16 at 3:46 pm to
quote:

Frye is signed for two more years at modest money after this season. Again, that is not at all equivalent with Ryan Anderson. Assuming they would just do the same deal is ignorant.



The Cavs don't care about having a 34 yr old Frye on their roster in 2 years. They care about winning a championship now. If you think that they wanted Frye over Anderson because he is under contract then you are denser than I thought. Note none of the Frye reports came out until well after their reported interest in Ryno. Combine that with a CLeveland Reporter saying the asking price for Ryno was too high and I think it is a pretty safe assumption that Cleveland did or would have offered the same deal.

quote:

This is what it boils down to. If you honestly believe Dell turned down ANY assets so Ryan Anderson can help the Pels win maybe 3 more games in a lost season, I can't help you. Have fun being miserable.


You yourself said you would turn away the 59th pick for Ryan because you would rather have him on the roster for the last 30 games. But it is crazy for me to think that Dell had the same opinion? I don't need your help.
Posted by mm2316
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Aug 2010
6942 posts
Posted on 2/19/16 at 3:50 pm to
quote:

If you honestly believe Dell turned down ANY assets so Ryan Anderson can help the Pels win maybe 3 more games in a lost season, I can't help you. Have fun being miserable.

Not saying this is the case, but I don't see why this is so difficult to believe. I don't think Dell is thinking of it in the way that "keeping Ryno wins 'x' amount of games", but I can believe that he thinks keeping Ryno makes us a better team, gives us a better shot at making a playoff run, which would help him keep his job.
This post was edited on 2/19/16 at 3:54 pm
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
62446 posts
Posted on 2/19/16 at 4:06 pm to
It may not even be about Dell's preferences. I'm not saying they wouldn't have resigned BDJ without the Stokes money, but it looks like that was the purpose of the move. There were limited scenarios where they got something they viewed as more valuable than Ryno's Bird Rights without taking back either more present money or more future money. I don't think a 2nd and TPE qualifies as more valuable than Ryno's Bird Rights when we already have 2 2nds. I think the disconnect is this board values the tank, Benson's piles of money, and Ryno's Bird Rights differently than the team does.
Posted by mm2316
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Aug 2010
6942 posts
Posted on 2/19/16 at 4:25 pm to
TiA- always appreciate your input and ability to have a good debate without going off the rails.

quote:

It may not even be about Dell's preferences

This is a main part of the problem, IMO. It does seem that, like when Dell was first hired and we were owned by the NBA, he doesn't have full control at the moment. If the higher ups don't trust him, and/or they aren't in the same page, it's time to get someone in that position that they do trust.

quote:

I'm not saying they wouldn't have resigned BDJ without the Stokes money, but it looks like that was the purpose of the move.

Totally agree that the Stokes move main factor was to use the money to sign BJD, but what does that say about the state of the franchise that we needed that move in order to sign a promising rookie to a minimum deal?

quote:

I don't think a 2nd and TPE qualifies as more valuable than Ryno's Bird Rights when we already have 2 2nds

Agreed, I do think that team the views re-signing Ryno as a real option. However, I disagree. I just don't think you can tie up that much money in one position.
quote:

I think the disconnect is this board values the tank, Benson's piles of money, and Ryno's Bird Rights differently than the team does.

There's a definitely a difference in what fans value, and the owners/execs value. As an owner, an extra $350k is nice, but I am a fan so it means nothing to me.

This post was edited on 2/19/16 at 4:42 pm
Posted by corndeaux
Member since Sep 2009
9634 posts
Posted on 2/20/16 at 8:04 am to
Lowe Post w/ Stein from yesterday.

Lots of Raps talk and then some Pels thoughts starting around 26 minute mark

TL;DL

No way Toronto was offering a 1st + Patterson for Anderson or any other potential target- those targets just aren't moving the needle enough. Especially Anderson and his impending FA- theme of the pod was contract certainty matters right now

Lowe thinks the Pels should have tried to get something, even 2nds for Anderson because upcoming $$

Stein was less bullish on that- might be worth more to try to keep him than get 2nds
Posted by Jester
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2006
34717 posts
Posted on 2/20/16 at 8:10 am to
quote:

might be worth more to try to keep him than get 2nds




2nds are better than a throwing even more money at an inherently flawed roster.
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