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LSU vs. Alabama in the QB department, Nick Saban holds the key!
Posted on 12/1/15 at 12:40 am
Posted on 12/1/15 at 12:40 am
During AFR today, Matt brought up this stat regarding QB's. Since Nick Saban began coaching at Alabama, he hasn't had a single true freshman or redshirt freshman start at QB.
John Parker Wilson started all 12 games in 2007 as a junior and 2008 as a senior.
In 2009, Greg McElroy took over with 2 years under his belt and led Bama to an undefeated season. He also started every game in 2010.
In 2011, A.J. McCarron was a redshirt sophomore and was entering his 3rd year at Bama. He won a NC both years that he started.
After McCarron entered the draft, Blake Sims stepped up and balled. For 3 years he was a backup QB before finally getting the nod and leading Bama to the playoffs.
Jake Coker was redshirted at FSU in 2010, played some as a backup in 2011 and 2012. He injured his knee before the 2013 season so he transferred to Bama January of 2014. He's now a 5th year senior QB for Saban and on their way to another playoff.
In 2008 Jarred Lee and Jordan Jefferson split time as true freshmen.
Jefferson started as a sophomore in 2009.
Zach Mettenberger was a disaster in his 2nd year at LSU in 2012.
Anthony Jennings was a train wreck as a sophomore in 2014. Harris had a disastrous lone start.
This year, Harris is still just a sophomore and began improving during the season until Bama. He has regressed since then.
Maybe we're over thinking this QB development/recruiting thing. When LSU has veteran guys under center these are the results:
2005: 11-2 (7-1 SEC)
2006: 11-2 (6-2 SEC)
2007: 12-2 (6-2 SEC) National Championship
2010: 11-2 (6-2 SEC)
2011: 13-1 (8-0 SEC) SEC Champs, NC appearance
2013: 10-3 (5-3 SEC) 3,000 yd passer, two 1,000 yd receivers
Combined 68-12 (38-10 SEC)
When LSU starts underclassmen at QB, these are the results:
2008: 8-5 (3-5 SEC) lost to Bama
2009: 9-4 (5-3 SEC) lost to Bama
2012: 10-3 (6-2 SEC) lost to Bama
2014: 8-5 (4-4 SEC) lost to Bama
2015: 8-3 (5-3 SEC) lost to Bama
Combined 43-20 (23-17 SEC)
Coincidence? I think not. Saban has the key, veteran QB's with experience. This made me wonder if we are overreacting to every disappointing season.
John Parker Wilson started all 12 games in 2007 as a junior and 2008 as a senior.
In 2009, Greg McElroy took over with 2 years under his belt and led Bama to an undefeated season. He also started every game in 2010.
In 2011, A.J. McCarron was a redshirt sophomore and was entering his 3rd year at Bama. He won a NC both years that he started.
After McCarron entered the draft, Blake Sims stepped up and balled. For 3 years he was a backup QB before finally getting the nod and leading Bama to the playoffs.
Jake Coker was redshirted at FSU in 2010, played some as a backup in 2011 and 2012. He injured his knee before the 2013 season so he transferred to Bama January of 2014. He's now a 5th year senior QB for Saban and on their way to another playoff.
In 2008 Jarred Lee and Jordan Jefferson split time as true freshmen.
Jefferson started as a sophomore in 2009.
Zach Mettenberger was a disaster in his 2nd year at LSU in 2012.
Anthony Jennings was a train wreck as a sophomore in 2014. Harris had a disastrous lone start.
This year, Harris is still just a sophomore and began improving during the season until Bama. He has regressed since then.
Maybe we're over thinking this QB development/recruiting thing. When LSU has veteran guys under center these are the results:
2005: 11-2 (7-1 SEC)
2006: 11-2 (6-2 SEC)
2007: 12-2 (6-2 SEC) National Championship
2010: 11-2 (6-2 SEC)
2011: 13-1 (8-0 SEC) SEC Champs, NC appearance
2013: 10-3 (5-3 SEC) 3,000 yd passer, two 1,000 yd receivers
Combined 68-12 (38-10 SEC)
When LSU starts underclassmen at QB, these are the results:
2008: 8-5 (3-5 SEC) lost to Bama
2009: 9-4 (5-3 SEC) lost to Bama
2012: 10-3 (6-2 SEC) lost to Bama
2014: 8-5 (4-4 SEC) lost to Bama
2015: 8-3 (5-3 SEC) lost to Bama
Combined 43-20 (23-17 SEC)
Coincidence? I think not. Saban has the key, veteran QB's with experience. This made me wonder if we are overreacting to every disappointing season.
This post was edited on 12/1/15 at 2:18 pm
29
Posted on 12/1/15 at 12:45 am to reauxl tigers7
Quality Post 
Posted on 12/1/15 at 12:47 am to reauxl tigers7
I can respect the time it took you to run the numbers.
Cheers
Cheers
Posted on 12/1/15 at 12:51 am to reauxl tigers7
I don't think it's any secret that good QB play is often the difference between a good and poor season. It is interesting to see how the records for LSU show this clearly.
If you look at Bama and Ole Miss this year, you see they both have QB transfers to get much needed experience at QB.
So I think Miles needs to do whatever he can to ensure that we have experience at QB always. Losing Franks isnt helping. In Miles tenure, we've lost Franks, Kiel, and Zach Lee as guys committed that never came. We've also seen 3 QB guys come who've transferred.
Is it bad luck or what? I don't know what to say about it. I have to believe that Miles could do a better job...
If you look at Bama and Ole Miss this year, you see they both have QB transfers to get much needed experience at QB.
So I think Miles needs to do whatever he can to ensure that we have experience at QB always. Losing Franks isnt helping. In Miles tenure, we've lost Franks, Kiel, and Zach Lee as guys committed that never came. We've also seen 3 QB guys come who've transferred.
Is it bad luck or what? I don't know what to say about it. I have to believe that Miles could do a better job...
Posted on 12/1/15 at 12:51 am to reauxl tigers7
First post I read that changed my perspective. I like it. Like our future.
Posted on 12/1/15 at 3:44 am to reauxl tigers7
Great post.
Right now Etling, Jennings, and Harris, will have had at least a year's worth of playing time at a school in a big conference. All will have been in college for at least 3 years taking 3 springs practices, 3 fall camps, and both Jennings and Harris will have had 1st team bowl prep.
Dural likely stays which gives you at least 4 WRs in their 3rd or 4th year of playing. Smith and Jeter will both be seniors. If Hawkins doesn't declare (I see Pocic staying), then we should have four lineman return with at least 1 year of experience. Fournette in his 3rd year, Williams in his 3rd, Guice in his 2nd, JD Moore back from injury and both he and Mouton with half a year of experience
Go and get a pass happy coordinator like Tony Petersen from LA Tech. LA Tech's RB Kenneth Dixon has 3184 rush yards, 43 rush TDs, 824 receiving yards, and 12 receiving TDs in the 3 years Petersen has been OC. He only played in 10 games each in 2 of those years and still put up nearly 1000 rushing yards in both. So you don't have to worry about not running the ball.
This offense will have everything it needs to be dangerous from a player perspective with talent and experience. Go get a really good college OC/QB coach and let him do his thing. You can still keep your toss dive and some I form, but it's time to give over control.
No excuse not to have a powerhouse offense next year, no excuse.
Right now Etling, Jennings, and Harris, will have had at least a year's worth of playing time at a school in a big conference. All will have been in college for at least 3 years taking 3 springs practices, 3 fall camps, and both Jennings and Harris will have had 1st team bowl prep.
Dural likely stays which gives you at least 4 WRs in their 3rd or 4th year of playing. Smith and Jeter will both be seniors. If Hawkins doesn't declare (I see Pocic staying), then we should have four lineman return with at least 1 year of experience. Fournette in his 3rd year, Williams in his 3rd, Guice in his 2nd, JD Moore back from injury and both he and Mouton with half a year of experience
Go and get a pass happy coordinator like Tony Petersen from LA Tech. LA Tech's RB Kenneth Dixon has 3184 rush yards, 43 rush TDs, 824 receiving yards, and 12 receiving TDs in the 3 years Petersen has been OC. He only played in 10 games each in 2 of those years and still put up nearly 1000 rushing yards in both. So you don't have to worry about not running the ball.
This offense will have everything it needs to be dangerous from a player perspective with talent and experience. Go get a really good college OC/QB coach and let him do his thing. You can still keep your toss dive and some I form, but it's time to give over control.
No excuse not to have a powerhouse offense next year, no excuse.
Posted on 12/1/15 at 6:31 am to reauxl tigers7
quote:
Maybe we're over thinking this QB development/recruiting thing.
I've been trying to argue this in various ways and threads over the years, but the simplicity of putting those numbers there like this really drive the point home. Up voted.
I definitely have my concerns about next year, if our now veteran QB can show the same development that our others have over the years, there is plenty to be optimistic about.
Posted on 12/1/15 at 7:16 am to reauxl tigers7
Mccarron was a freshman when they beat us in the title game
Posted on 12/1/15 at 7:24 am to reauxl tigers7
Yet tiger fans want to get a new QB every year
Posted on 12/1/15 at 7:31 am to reauxl tigers7
Good post. QB is the most important position on the field, and we need to develop depth and experience.
Speaking of experience, I have a thought. We knew coming into the season that we would go as far as our QB development would take us. Did the early season success by LF seduce Miles into bringing Harris along too slowly. I know Miles wanted to maintain his confidence with error free experience. But, Harris needed to be able to make a mistake when it was not a game killer. When the going got tough, Harris reverted back to his Auburn start of last year.
Maybe the Heisman run was the culprit. That took plays away from development of Harris.
Speaking of experience, I have a thought. We knew coming into the season that we would go as far as our QB development would take us. Did the early season success by LF seduce Miles into bringing Harris along too slowly. I know Miles wanted to maintain his confidence with error free experience. But, Harris needed to be able to make a mistake when it was not a game killer. When the going got tough, Harris reverted back to his Auburn start of last year.
Maybe the Heisman run was the culprit. That took plays away from development of Harris.
Posted on 12/1/15 at 7:33 am to reauxl tigers7
quote:I've been posting a variation of these graphs for over a year.
Maybe we're over thinking this QB development/recruiting thing. When LSU has veteran guys under center these are the results:
These graphs clearly show that as LSU QBs get more years in the system, their production tends to increase.
QB production is not static. Only morons use the talking point of whether QBs have "it" or not. There are just far too many examples of QBs who suck as freshmen and sophomores but who blossom as juniors and seniors.
Only morons point to outlier freshman or sophomore QB stars at other schools and think that should be the norm for LSU. Consistently high production from a freshman or sophomore QB is NOT the norm.
QBs tend to get better as they spend more years in college.
Many fans scream about the type of QB should be recruiting. They point to the success of Mauck, Flynn, and Mettenberger and say that LSU should recruit "pro style" QBs. Putting to the side whether Mauck or Flynn were even "pro style" QBs or whether Miles even focuses on recruiting "dual threat" QBs, what there same people fail to consider is that Mauck, Flynn, and Mettenberger did not start as freshmen or sophomores. If Mauck, Flynn, or Mettenberger had started as freshmen or sophomores, they probably would have looked like crap for several games during the year.
Some people say that Harris does not have "it." That's bullshite on many levels. First, it's bullshite that Harris should be written off for not having "it." Second, it's bullshite to think that QBs either have "it" or they don't have "it." QBs can, and usually do, improve year over year.
Harris showed marked improvement during the first seven games in 2015. (Damn shame he missed the McNeese game.) He got injured in the Alabama game and regressed. There is no rational reason to think Harris won't be much improved next year.
Posted on 12/1/15 at 7:35 am to reauxl tigers7
quote:
Anthony Jennings was a train wreck as a freshman in 2014.
*sophomore
Posted on 12/1/15 at 7:35 am to reauxl tigers7
quote:Blake Sims was a backup running back.
Blake Sims stepped up and balled. For 3 years he was a backup QB before finally getting the nod and leading Bama to the playoffs.
Posted on 12/1/15 at 7:37 am to reauxl tigers7
QB development takes time. Hence it is always best to persist with one guy and one guy alone.
Posted on 12/1/15 at 7:39 am to reauxl tigers7
Quality post.
Posted on 12/1/15 at 7:47 am to reauxl tigers7
I blame perrilloux
Posted on 12/1/15 at 7:49 am to reauxl tigers7
I agree with everything you said, and I still think Harris will be absolutely terri-bad next year even as a junior.
Posted on 12/1/15 at 7:54 am to reauxl tigers7
And when I tell people, the Les Miles can't develop a QB, all started with Perrilloux getting kicked off the team they laugh.
Then after Zach Mett passed for 3000 yards we had a 5 star QB leave us on signing day. Again that kills Miles when your trying to "develop"a QB.
Also Haydn Rettig, he was a elite 11 QB out of high school.
Why can't we keep guys like this on the roster for their senior season? Like Blake Sims.
Now 2015 we have had a elite QB committed for over a year only to lose him.
The freshman campaign for QBs will only continue if we sign a good QB this February.
Then after Zach Mett passed for 3000 yards we had a 5 star QB leave us on signing day. Again that kills Miles when your trying to "develop"a QB.
Also Haydn Rettig, he was a elite 11 QB out of high school.
Why can't we keep guys like this on the roster for their senior season? Like Blake Sims.
Now 2015 we have had a elite QB committed for over a year only to lose him.
The freshman campaign for QBs will only continue if we sign a good QB this February.
Posted on 12/1/15 at 8:00 am to reauxl tigers7
Good post. Thanks for the time put in. Only thing I would say doesn't jive with the rest of your post is this:
Can we really call Mett an underclassman at that point? He had a lot of game time under his belt albeit at the Juco level but it was still more than some of the "experienced" QBs referenced in the OP. Just my 2 cents
quote:
When LSU starts underclassmen at QB, these are the results:
quote:
2012: 10-3 (6-2 SEC) lost to Bama
Can we really call Mett an underclassman at that point? He had a lot of game time under his belt albeit at the Juco level but it was still more than some of the "experienced" QBs referenced in the OP. Just my 2 cents
Posted on 12/1/15 at 8:01 am to reauxl tigers7
quote:
Saban has the key, veteran QB's with experience.
AJ McCarron won the national title in his first year as a starter.
Blake Sims took Alabama to the playoffs last year in his first year as a starter.
Jake Coker is taking Alabama to the playoffs this year in his first year as a starter.
All of these quarterbacks had less experience than both Jennings and Harris coming into this year.
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